The Dollar Index and Euro are headed towards 97-96 and 1.17 respectively. EURINR below 100.60 can dip to 99-98. Only if an immediate rise past 100.60 happens, can extend the rise towards 102. EURJPY and USDJPY can fall towards 166 and 144 respectively before attempting to bounce back in the near term. USDCNY is trading lower within the 7.20-7.17/16 range. The Aussie is trading higher within 0.6350-0.6550 and Pound has risen past 1.36 and if sustained, can extend it further to 1.3700-1.3750. USDINR has interim support near 85.90, above which the pair can again attempt to rise back towards 86.25-86.50. US New Home Sales data release is scheduled today.

Dollar Index (97.84) is coming off as anticipated and can test 97-96 in the near term before eventually bouncing back towards 98 and higher.

EURUSD (1.1592) is headed towards the upper resistance at 1.17 which can be tested soon. Thereafter, while the resistance holds, a pull back towards 1.15 can happen in the near term.

EURINR (99.9201) yesterday tested the resistance near 100.50/60 before turning lower. Currently the resistance near 100.60 is evident and as long as the cross trades below it, a dip to 99-98 can happen before it rises back again. Only if it immediately breaks past 100.60, can negate the fall and extend its rise towards 102 or higher.

EURJPY (168.44) is slowly inching lower and a fall below 168 can drag it to the deeper support near 166 in the coming sessions before attempting to bounce back again towards 170..

Dollar-Yen (144.65) is nearing the support at 144 which can be tested soon in the near term before it resumes its rise towards 148-150.

USDCNY (7.1713) is trading lower within its immediate range of 7.20-7.17/16. The range is likely to hold for some time before a decisive break happens on either side.

Aussie (0.6499) is trading higher within its 0.635-0.655 range. The pair faces immediate resistance between 0.6650-0.6600, break past which will be needed to end the sideways consolidation. Till then, the range can continue to hold.

Meanwhile Pound (1.3621) has risen past the 1.36 level. If the rise sustains, it can get extended to 1.3700-1.3750 level in the coming sessions. There is a scope for it to rise towards 1.40 as well but a confirmed break past 1.37 will be needed for it.

USDINR (85.9290) yesterday slipped below 86 to the low of 85.9125. The 21-day moving average support is near 85.90. While this level holds, we may see a bounce back towards 86.25–86.50 in the near term. However, a break below this support could drag the price lower towards 85.75.

The US Treasury yields have declined further and are at the lower end of their range. We retain our bearish bias to break the range on the downside and fall more going forward. The German yields have bounced back. But resistance ahead can cap the upside and keep the bearish bias intact. We expect the yields to fall back again. The 10Yr GoI is coming down within the range. For now, the range is intact. The bias is positive to see a bullish breakout of the range and a rise eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.30%) and 30Yr (4.85%) Treasury yields are at the lower end of their 4.3%-4.55% (10Yr) and 4.8%-5% (30Yr) range. We retain our bearish view to break the range on the downside and fall to 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.54%) and 30Yr (3.02%) yields have bounced back. But resistance at 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr) can cap the upside and keep the bearish view intact for a fall to 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.85%-2.8% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.3384%) has come down within its range. The 6.3%-6.4% range is intact now. While above 6.3%, the bias is bullish to see a breakout above 6.4% and rise to 6.5%.

Global indices are showing strength overall. The Dow has risen above 43,000 and could test 43,300–43,400 while holding above 42,700–42,800. DAX surged faster than expected and may target 24,500–24,800 if it sustains above 23,850. Nifty tested 25,300 but failed to hold; while above 24,900, it can retest 25,300 and potentially rise to 25,500. Nikkei is struggling to break $ 39,000, with a decisive move above it needed for a rise to $ 39,500–$ 40,000. Shanghai continues to trend higher and may move towards $ 3,450–$ 3,500 in the coming weeks.

The Dow (43089.02, +1.19%) has risen above 43000 as expected. It can test 43300-43400 now while it sustains above the support at 42800-42700.

DAX (23641.58, +1.6%) had tested 23800 much faster than expected. A sustained rise above 23850 can take the index up to 24500-24800 over the medium term.

Nifty (25044.35, 0.29%) rose to 25300 as expected but has come-off sharply failing to sustain. Support is at 24900. While that holds, Nifty can attempt to breach 25300 and extend the rise to 25500 and higher. We will have to wait and watch.

Nikkei ($ 38,870.02, +0.25%) rose to $ 39,000 as expected but is struggling to break past this level. A sustained break above $ 39,000 is needed for a further rise towards $ 39,500–$ 40,000.

Shanghai ($ 3,426.17, +0.15%) moved up sharply to $ 3,423.78 yesterday, in line with our expectations. A further rise towards $ 3,450–$ 3,500 is likely in the coming weeks.

Crude prices have fallen to their key supports. Brent holds above $ 66 with potential to rise towards $ 72–$ 74, while WTI has room to move up to $ 70–$ 72. Gold and Silver have also held their respective supports at $ 3,300 and $ 35.20, suggesting possible rebounds towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450 and $ 36.50–$ 37 in the near term. Copper continues to consolidate between $ 4.75–$ 5.00, awaiting a breakout. Natural Gas remains weak and may fall further towards $ 3.60–$ 3.50.

Brent ($ 68.08) fell to a low of $ 66.82 yesterday and has opened higher at $ 67.88. Immediate support is seen near $ 66; while that holds, a bounce back towards $ 72–$ 74 is likely in the near term. A break below $ 66 would turn the outlook bearish towards $ 65–$ 60.

WTI ($ 65.22) fell to test its immediate support at $ 64 yesterday and has opened higher at $ 65.12 today. While the support holds, a bounce back towards $ 70–$ 72 is possible in the near term. A break on the downside would confirm further bearishness towards $ 60–$ 55.

Gold ($ 3,347.70) tested a low of $ 3,308.30 as expected. As long as the support at $ 3,300 holds, we expect a bounce back towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450 in the near term.

Silver ($ 35.91) tested its immediate support near $ 35.20 yesterday. While this support holds, we retain our view of a bounce back towards $ 36.50–$ 37.00 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.9150) can trade within the range of $ 4.75–$ 5.00 for some time until a decisive breakout occurs.

Natural Gas ($ 3.6960) is falling as expected and may decline further towards $ 3.60–$ 3.50 on the downside.

14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
736 …Expectation 692 …Previous 743

DATA Last Friday

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
86.7 …Expectation 88.0 …Previous 87.5 …Actual 88.4

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations
85.6 …Expectation 86.5 …Previous 86.1 …Actual 86.2

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
87.7 …Expectation 89.5 …Previous 88.9 …Actual 90.7

12:30 18:00 US Current Account Balance
…Expectation -444.0 …Previous -303.9 …Actual

12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
…Expectation 0.5 …Previous 1.7 …Actual 0.6

13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
…Expectation 4.2 …Previous 4.1 …Actual 3.4

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
87.5 …Expectation 99.1 …Previous 98.0 …Actual 93