The Dollar Index can fall towards 97-96 before halting. Meanwhile Euro and EURINR can test 1.17 and 100.50-101.00 respectively before possibly turning lower. EURJPY has risen well and is likely to test 170 as well. Thereafter, whether the rise extends further or not will have to be seen. USDJPY has immediate support near 144 and while it holds, the pair can rise back towards 146-148 in the near term. USDCNY is trading near the lower end of its 7.20-7.17/16 range. The Aussie is trading higher within 0.6350-0.6550 and the Pound if sustained can target 1.3700-1.3750. USDINR has immediate resistance at 86.25, below which a range of 85.75-86.25 is expected to hold before a break happens on either side. US Durable Goods and US GDP data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (97.84) is coming off in line with our bearish view and can soon test the support between 97-96 region before halting. Thereafter, while the support holds, a near term range of 99-97/96 can persist for a while. .

EURUSD (1.1687) is nearing the resistance near 1.17 which can be tested soon. Upon testing, the resistance is expected to hold and push the pair lower towards 1.15 in the coming sessions. Only if an immediate break past 1.17 happens, can lead us to revise our view accordingly.

Similarly, EURINR (99.9201) has resistance near 100.50-101.00. While it holds, an initial fall to 99-98 can happen before it rises back again. Watch price action closely to see whether the resistance holds or not.

EURJPY (169.16) limited the downside to 168.10 itself and rose back sharply. While the rise sustains, a test to 170 can happen soon. Thereafter, a decisive break past it will be needed to bring higher levels into picture. Else, it can fall back towards 168 or lower again. .

Dollar-Yen (144.74) has support near 144, above which the USDJPY can attempt to rise back towards 146-148 in the near term. Overall, an immediate range of 144-148 can persist for a while.

USDCNY (7.1674) is trading near the lower end of its immediate range of 7.20-7.17/16. The range is likely to hold for some time before a decisive break happens on either side.

Aussie (0.6499) faces immediate resistance between 0.6650-0.6600, below which the range of 0.635-0.655 can continue to hold.

Meanwhile Pound (1.3690) is rising in line with our view and if sustained, can test the target of 1.3700-1.3750 in the coming sessions. There is a scope for it to rise towards 1.40 as well but a confirmed break past 1.3750 will be needed for it.

USDINR (85.9560) tested 85.7950 before recovering a bit from there. An immediate resistance is evident near 86.25 region and a break past it can only make the outlook bullish in the near term. Else, while below 86.25, a range of 85.75-86.25 can persist for some time before a break happens on either side.

The US Treasury yields continue to fall as expected. Our bearish view remains intact, and the yields can fall more in the coming days. The German yields have moved up further. Resistances are ahead to cap the upside. While the resistances hold, the yields can reverse lower again. The 10Yr GoI has moved up again within the range. The sideways range continues to remain intact. We retain our bullish bias to see an upside break of the range eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.27%) and 30Yr (4.82%) Treasury yields have declined further. The 10Yr has dipped below 4.3% as expected and can now fall to 4.1%. The 30Yr can fall to 4.6% on a break below 4.8%.

The German 10Yr (2.56%) and 30Yr (3.05%) yields have moved up further. 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr) are key resistances which can cap the upside and drag the yields down to 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.85%-2.8% (30Yr). A break above the resistance will negate this bearish view.

The 10Yr GoI (6.3659%) has risen back within the range. The 6.3%-6.4% range continues to remain intact. The bias remains bullish to break 6.4% and rise to 6.5% eventually.

Global indices show mixed movement. The Dow has dipped below $ 43,000 but could bounce back towards $ 43,300–$ 43,400 if support at $ 42,800–$ 42,700 holds. DAX faces resistance at $ 23,800, and a failure to rise could pull it down to $ 23,000. Nifty remains firm above 25,000, but a decisive break above 25,300 is needed to target $ 25,500 and beyond. Nikkei has climbed past $ 39,000 and may rise towards $ 40,000, while Shanghai continues its upward momentum with potential to reach $ 3,500–$ 3,550.

The Dow (42982.43, -0.25%) has dipped below 43000. Key support is at 42800-42700. While that holds, a rise to 43300-43400 can be seen in the coming days.

DAX (23498.33, -0.61%) has come down. The resistance at 23800 seems to be holding well. Failure to rise back can drag it down to 23000.

Nifty (25,244.75, 0.80%) sustains above 25000. But a strong break above 25300 is needed to gain strength and clear the way for a rise to 25500 and higher.

Nikkei ($ 39,328.02, +0.86%) has risen past $ 39,000 and may move further up towards $ 40,000 in the near term.

Shanghai ($ 3,455.97, +1.04%) has reached the mentioned levels and can continue to rise towards $ 3,500–$ 3,550 in the near term.

Crude prices are holding above key supports and may bounce towards $ 70–$ 72 (Brent) and $ 68–$ 70 (WTI) respectively. Metals remain firm, with Gold likely to rise towards $ 3,450 while Silver could test $ 37. Copper is range-bound between $ 4.75–$ 5.00, awaiting a breakout. Natural Gas continues to decline and may dip further to $ 3.50.

Brent ($ 67.93) The immediate support is holding for now, and as long as this level remains intact, we might see a bounce back towards $ 70–$ 72 in the near term.

WTI ($ 65.04) is trading just above its immediate support, and while this level holds, we maintain our view of a possible rise towards $ 68–$ 70 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,346.30) has risen slightly. While the support near $ 3,300 holds, we expect a bounce back towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450 in the near term.

Silver ($ 36.27) has bounced back from its support as expected and can rise further towards $ 36.50–$ 37.00 in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.9250) has risen and is likely to trade within the range of $ 4.75–$ 5.00 for some time until a decisive breakout occurs.

Natural Gas ($ 3.5902) is falling as expected and can target $ 3.55–$ 3.50 in the near term.

14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
736 …Expectation 692 …Previous 722 …Actual 623

DATA Last Friday

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
86.7 …Expectation 88.0 …Previous 87.5 …Actual 88.4

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations
85.6 …Expectation 86.5 …Previous 86.1 …Actual 86.2

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
87.7 …Expectation 89.5 …Previous 88.9 …Actual 90.7

12:30 18:00 US Current Account Balance
…Expectation -444.0 …Previous -303.9 …Actual -450.2

12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
…Expectation 0.5 …Previous 1.7 …Actual 0.6

13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
…Expectation 4.2 …Previous 4.1 …Actual 3.4

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
87.5 …Expectation 99.1 …Previous 98.0 …Actual 93