President Donald Trump is going to announce the next FED chair soon. Markets speculate that the new chairman can guide monetary policy in a more dovish direction. The Dollar Index can have the downside limited to 96. Overall, it can trade within the 99-96 range for Euro and EURINR below 1.17 and 101.00 can fall back towards 1.15 and 99 respectively. EURJPY needs to see a break past 170 to maintain its bullishness, else a corrective to 168-166 can happen, while it trades below 170. USDJPY has immediate support near 144 and while it holds, the pair is anticipated to rise back towards 146-148 in the near term. USDCNY is trading near the lower end of its 7.20-7.17/16 range. The Aussie and Pound are headed towards the resistance near 0.66 and 1.38 respectively. USDINR on the NDF is trading lower and is likely to extend the fall towards 85.50-85.25 before possibly halting. US PCE and US Personal Income data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (97.282) tested 96.99 before recovering a bit from there. The downside is expected to be limited to 96 max. Overall, a near term range of 99-96 can persist for a while.

EURUSD (1.1687) had risen to the high of 1.1745 before cooling down. Only a decisive break past 1.17 can take it towards 1.18-1.20. Else, while the resistance holds, we retain our view of seeing a fall towards 1.15 in the coming sessions.

EURINR (99.9201) has resistance around 101.00, below which the target of 99 is kept alive for now. Watch price action closely to see whether the resistance holds or not.

EURJPY (168.814) was anticipated to test 170 but instead it turned lower from 169.40 itself. While below 170, the cross can be vulnerable to fall back towards 168-166 in the near term. A break past 170 if seen, can bring the upper resistance of 175 into picture.

Dollar-Yen (144.32) is hovering above the support near 144. While it holds, the USDJPY can attempt to rise back towards 146-148 in the near term. Overall, an immediate range of 144-148 can persist for a while.

USDCNY (7.1694) need to see a decisive break on either side of its range of 7.20-7.17/16 for further directional clarity.

Aussie (0.6556) is headed towards the resistance near 0.66 which can be tested soon. Thereafter, whether the rise extends further or the range of 0.66-0.645/35 continues to hold will have to be seen.

Pound (1.3690) is rising in line with our view and a confirmed break past 1.38 if seen, can extend the ongoing rise to 1.40 as well. Immediate support is coming at 1.36.

USDINR (85.5660) slipped below 85.75, tested 85.62 before rising a bit from there. On the NDF it is currently trading lower and while below 86.00-86.25, the fall can extend to 85.50-85.25 before the pair attempts to rise back again.

The US Treasury yields remain lower. The bearish view remains intact. There is room for the yields to fall more from here. The US PCE data (for June) release today will be important to watch. A low PCE number will be negative for the yields. The PCE for May is 2.15% (YoY). The German yields are inching up to test their resistance. We expect the resistance to hold and the yields to fall back again. The 10Yr GoI remains stable and keeps the sideways range intact. We remain bullish to see an upside breakout of this range.

The US 10Yr (4.25%) and 30Yr (4.81%) Treasury yields remain lower. The 10Yr cand fall to 4.1% while below 4.3%-4.35%. The 30Yr is likely to break 4.8% while below 4.9% and fall to 4.6%

The German 10Yr (2.57%) and 30Yr (3.07%) yields are inching up to test their resistance at 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr). We expect them to reverse lower and fall back to 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.85%-2.8% (30Yr). A break above the resistance will negate this bearish view.

The 10Yr GoI (6.3665%) remains stable within its 6.3%-6.4% range. The range can remain intact for some time. But eventually we expect the yield to break 6.4% and rise to 6.5%.

Global indices are showing positive momentum, with the Dow surging to 43,386.84 and eyeing a further rise towards 44,100–44,200. The DAX remains stable near 23,649.30 but needs a strong break above 23,800 to avoid a fallback to 23,000. Nifty has risen sharply to 25,549, with a bullish outlook towards 26,000–26,300 and support at 25,400. Nikkei has breached the $ 40,000 mark and may extend gains to $ 40,500–$ 41,000. Shanghai, though slightly down at $ 3,448.47, stays positive above $ 3,400, targeting $ 3,500–$ 3,550 in the near term.

The Dow (43386.84, +0.94%) has risen well into the 43300-43400 region much faster than expected. While this rise sustains, the Dow can target 44100-44200 in the near term.

DAX (23649.30, +0.64%) remains stable. A strong break above 23800 is needed to strengthen the momentum for a rise to 24500-24800. Else the danger of falling back to 23000 will remain alive.

Nifty (25,549, 1.21%) has risen to 25500 as expected. Immediate support can now be at 25400. Outlook is bullish to see 26000-26300.

Nikkei ($ 40,180.02, +0.89%) has risen above $ 40,000 as expected and may move further up towards $ 40,500–$ 41,000 in the near term.

Shanghai ($ 3,448.47, -0.22%) has dipped slightly, but while it sustains above $ 3,400, the view remains intact for a rise towards $ 3,500–$ 3,550 in the near term.

Crude prices have risen above immediate supports and may head towards $ 70–$ 72 and $ 68–$ 70 respectively. Gold is stable above $ 3,300 with potential to bounce to $ 3,400–$ 3,450, while Silver may rise further towards $ 37.00–$ 37.50. Copper looks bullish after a sharp breakout, targeting $ 5.20–$ 5.30. Natural gas, however, remains weak and may decline further towards $ 3.50.

Brent ($ 68.06) has risen above its immediate support and may see a further rise towards $ 70–$ 72 in the near term.

WTI ($ 65.58) has risen slightly, and while it remains above its immediate support, we maintain our view of a potential rise towards $ 68–$ 70 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,330.40) is holding above $ 3,300, and as long as this level holds, we expect a bounce back towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450 in the near term.

Silver ($ 36.79) has risen above $ 36.50 as expected and may rise further towards $ 37.00–$ 37.50 in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.1070) has broken out as expected, with the price rising sharply to a high of $ 5.0995 yesterday. It now looks bullish towards $ 5.20–$ 5.30 in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.5510) has fallen to expected levels and may decline further towards $ 3.50 in the near term.

23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
2.4 Expectation 2.5 Previous 2.5

6:00 11:30 UK GDP
Expectation 0.7 Previous 0.7

9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
94.6 Expectation 95.5 Previous 94.8

12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
Expectation 0.2 Previous 0.8

12:30 18:00 US PCE M/M
Expectation 0.1 Previous 0.1

12:30 18:00 US Core PCE
Expectation 0.1 Previous 0.1

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
-1.8 Expectation 6.8 Previous -6.3 Actual 16.4

{12:30 18:00 US GDP
Expectation -0.2% Previous -0.2% Actual -0.5%