The Dollar Index is trading lower within its 99-96 range. The Euro on the other hand needs a break past 1.1750 to head towards 1.18-1.20. EURINR will either have to rise past 101 or fall below 100 to give us further clarity. EURJPY needs to see a break past 170 to maintain its bullishness, else a corrective to 168-166 can happen. USDJPY is trading just near the immediate support near 144. While it holds, the pair can attempt to rise back towards 146-148 in the near term. USDCNY is trading near the lower end of its 7.20-7.16 range. The Aussie and Pound are holding well below the respective resistances near 0.66 and 1.38. They can decline further in the coming sessions while the resistance holds. USDINR is coming off in line with our bearish view so far. Going ahead, the ongoing fall is anticipated to extend towards 85.00-84.75 in the coming weeks before attempting to rise back.

Dollar Index (97.18) can have the downside limited to 96 max. Overall, a near term range of 99-96 can persist for a while.

EURUSD (1.1722) continues to remain stable above 1.17 but still a decisive break past 1.1750 will be needed to head towards 1.18-1.20. Else, there could be some scope to see a fall back towards 1.16 or slightly lower..

EURINR (100.1893) needs to either fall below 100 or rise past 101 to get the further directional clarity. Watch price action closely around current levels.

EURJPY (169.06) continues to trade below 170. Only a break past it can bring the upper resistance of 175 into picture. Else, the cross can be vulnerable to fall back towards 168-166 in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (144.10) is trading just above the support near 144. While it holds, the USDJPY can attempt to rise back towards 146-148 in the near term. Only a confirmed break below 144 can drag it further to 142 in the near term.

USDCNY (7.1694) is currently trading lower within its 7.20-7.16 range. The pair need to see a decisive break on either side for further directional clarity.

Aussie (0.6536) was anticipated to resistance near 0.66 but it halted the rise to 0.6561 itself. While below 0.66, the pair can continue to trade within the 0.66-0.645 region.

Pound (1.3716) is facing the immediate resistance near the 1.38 region, below which a dip to 1.36 can be possible. There is enough room in the charts for the pair to see a rise to 1.40 but a confirmed break past 1.38 will be needed for it.

USDINR (85.4260) on Friday tested 85.4250 before recovering a bit from there. There could be some scope to see the ongoing fall getting extended towards 85.00-84.75 in the coming weeks before attempting to rise back higher.

The US Treasury yields have bounced slightly. But this is likely to be short-lived. Bias remains negative. We expect the yields to turn down and fall more from here. The German Yields remain higher but stable. Resistance ahead can cap the upside and drag the yields down again going forward. The 10Yr GoI is moving up towards the upper end of this range. We retain our bullish bias to see an upside breakout of this range and rise more. Need to see if this breakout is happening now or not.

The US 10Yr (4.28%) and 30Yr (4.84%) Treasury yields have bounced slightly but are unlikely to sustain. The bias remains bearish for the 10Yr to fall to 4.1% while it remains below 4.3%-4.35%. The 30Yr on the other hand, can break 4.8% while below 4.9% and fall to 4.6%

The German 10Yr (2.59%) and 30Yr (3.07%) yields remain stable. We expect the resistance at 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr) to cap the upside and trigger a fall back to 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.85%-2.8% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.3960%) is rising within its 6.3%-6.4% range. The bias remains positive to see a bullish breakout above 6.4% and a rise to 6.5%. Need to see if this break is happening now or not.

Global indices are bullish with the Dow targeting a rise towards 44100–44200, the DAX targeting 24500-25000 and Nifty heading towards 26000-26300 while above support at 25400. Nikkei and Shanghai also trade higher today and look bullish for the near term with possible targets of 41000-42000 and 3450 respectively soon.

The Dow (43819.27, +1%) rose well last week and could continue to move up with a target of 44100-44200 in the near term.

DAX (24033.22, +1.62%) rose well on Friday, breaking above the 23800 level. While above 24000, if the upward momentum continues, we may soon see a test of 24500-25000 before a possible corrective dip is seen in the medium term.

Nifty (25637.80, +0.35%) looks bullish for a rise to 26000-26300 while above support near 25400.

Nikkei (40777.65, +1.56%) has risen well to almost come up to the levels seen in the beginning of the year. The index will have to trade above 40500 for the bullishness to remain intact and see a further rally towards 41000-42000. Else, failure to sustain the immediate rise can pull it back to 39000-38000 soon.

Shanghai (3428.46, +0.13%) rose well to close above 3400 last week and is continuing to trade higher today. However, a sustained rise past 3450 is needed to rise towards 3500–3550 eventually.

Brent and WTI are holding above immediate support levels, awaiting a bounce back toward $ 70–$ 72 and $ 68–$ 70, respectively. Gold has broken below $ 3,300 and may fall further to $ 3,250–$ 3,200 unless it reclaims $ 3,300. Silver remains supported at $ 36 with chances of a bounce to $ 37.5–$ 38. Copper stays bullish above $ 5.00, targeting $ 5.20–$ 5.30, while Natural Gas needs a break above $ 3.75 to move higher; else, it could dip back to $ 3.60–$ 3.50.

Brent ($ 66.25) is holding near its immediate support. As long as this support remains intact, we maintain our view of a potential bounce back towards $ 70–$ 72 in the near term.

WTI ($ 64.85) is trading above its immediate support. While this level holds, we expect a rebound towards $ 68–$ 70 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,284.90) has broken below the $ 3,300 level, contrary to our expectations. As long as it stays below this level, the decline may extend further towards $ 3,250–$ 3,200. To negate this downside risk, it must bounce back above $ 3,300 and rise towards the previously mentioned $ 3,400–$ 3,500 levels.

Silver ($ 36.16) tested $ 36.98 as expected and retraced to close at $ 36.37 on Friday. Immediate support lies near $ 36, and while it holds, a bounce back towards $ 37.50–$ 38.00 is expected in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.0960) remains firm above $ 5.00 and continues to look bullish, with potential to rise towards $ 5.20–$ 5.30 in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.6580) fell to a low of $ 3.40 and rebounded sharply to close at $ 3.7390 on Friday. A sustained break above $ 3.75 is needed for a move higher towards $ 3.80–$ 3.90. Otherwise, it may fall back to $ 3.60–$ 3.50 on the downside.

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
4.8 Previous 2.7 …Actual

DATA Last Friday

23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
2.4 …Expectation 2.5 …Previous 2.5 …Actual 2.5

6:00 11:30 UK GDP
…Expectation 0.7 …Previous 0.7 …Actual

9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
94.6 …Expectation 95.5 …Previous 94.8 …Actual 94

12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
…Expectation 0.2 …Previous 0.8 …Actual -0.4

12:30 18:00 US PCE M/M
…Expectation 0.1 …Previous 0.1 …Actual 0.2

12:30 18:00 US Core PCE
…Expectation 0.1 …Previous 0.1 …Actual 0.2

{12:30 18:00 CA GDP
…Expectation 0.0 …Previous 0.1 …Actual -0.1