The Dollar Index is nearing the lower end of its 99-96 range. While the Euro has risen past 1.1750 and if sustained, can head towards 1.18-1.20. EURINR will have to rise past 101 to turn bullish in the near term. EURJPY needs to see a break past 170 to maintain its bullishness, else a corrective to 168-166 can happen. USDJPY has slipped below 144 and failure to see a rise past 144 can drag it further to 142-140. USDCNY has declined below 7.16 and if the fall persists, a test to the support near 7.15/14 can happen before attempting to rise back. The Aussie and Pound continue to hold below the respective resistances near 0.66 and 1.38. USDINR yesterday had risen to 85.77 but while below 86, our bearish view towards 85 remains intact for now. IN Manufacturing PMI and US Manufacturing ISM data releases scheduled today.

Dollar Index (97.18) is slowly inching lower and can test the crucial support near 96 if the fall continues further. Thereafter, whether the fall extends below 96 or a fresh upward rally begins, will have to be seen. For now, a near term range of 99-96 can persist for a while.

EURUSD (1.1780) has indeed risen past 1.1750 as well and while the rise sustains, can get extended to 1.18-1.20. Immediate support is coming at 1.17 level.

EURINR (99.9201) needs to see a decisive break past 101 to bring higher levels into picture. While the support near 100 holds, the cross is likely to rise towards 102 or higher.

EURJPY (169.06) continues to trade below 170. Only a break past it can bring the upper resistance of 175 into picture. Else, the cross can be vulnerable to fall back towards 168-166 in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (143.70) has slipped below 144 contrary to our view of it holding above 144. If the fall persists, a further test to 142-140 can happen before halting. Only an immediate rise past 144 can negate the anticipated fall.

USDCNY (7.1608) slipped below the lower end of its 7.20-7.16 range. The fall can test the deeper support coming between 7.15/14 before attempting to rise back again.

Aussie (0.6560) tested 0.6583 but could not sustain and started coming off. While below 0.66, the pair can continue to trade within the 0.66-0.645 region.

Pound (1.3728) is facing the immediate resistance near the 1.38 region, below which a dip to 1.36 can be possible. There is enough room in the charts for the pair to see a rise to 1.40 but a confirmed break past 1.38 will be needed for it.

USDINR (85.6380) initially tested 85.44 before rising sharply towards 85.77. Still, while it sustains below 86.00, we expect the pair to decline towards 85.25–85.00 in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields have declined sharply. The yields are coming down in line with our expectation. The bearish view is intact and there is room to fall more. The German yields are at their resistance. We expect them to turn down from here and fall. A strong rise from here will negate our bearish view. We will have to wait and see. The 10Yr GoI remains near the upper end of the range. The range is intact for now. We retain our bullish bias to see an upside breakout of this range eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.22%) and 30Yr (4.76%) Treasury yields have come down sharply. The Fall to 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) is happening in line with our expectation.

The German 10Yr (2.60%) and 30Yr (3.10%) yields are at their resistance. We expect them to turn down and fall back to 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.85%-2.8% (30Yr). But a strong rise from here will negate that view and take the yields up to 2.7%-2.8% (10Yr) and 3.2%-3.3% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.3860%) sustains near the upper end of the 6.3%-6.4% range. The range is intact for now. We retain our bullish bias to see an upside breakout of this range and a rise to 6.5% eventually.

Equities are mixed. Dow and Shanghai continue to rise, extending gains from their previous sessions, while Nifty, Dax and Nikkei see some profit taking from their recent highs. While Dow and Shanghai can continue to rise, targeting 41200 and 3450-3500 respectively in the near term; Nifty and Dax could limit their immediate downside to 25400 and 23500 respectively, with upside targets of 26000-26300 and 24500-25000 intact for the medium term. Nikkei could limit its dip to 39000-38500, but can eventually attempt to target 41000+ levels.

The Dow (44094.77, +0.63%) has been rising well and could head towards 44100-44200 in the next few sessions. Overall, while above 4000, the index can eventually target 45000-46000.

DAX (23909.61, -0.51%) has dipped slightly but while above 23500, the overall view is bullish for a rise to 24500-25000.

Nifty (25517.05, -0.47%) saw some profit taking yesterday as the index hit 25669, rising above 25500 after almost 6-months. A slow rise to 26000-26300 is possible while above immediate support near 25400.

Nikkei (40060.52, -1.05%) is also seeing profit taking over yesterday and today as Nikkei tested 40852. The dip could be limited to 39000/38500 before a bounce back towards 41000+ is seen in the medium term.

Shanghai (3448.53, +0.12%) continues to trade higher today. A sustained break above 3450 is needed to rise towards 3500–3550 eventually.

Crude prices are holding above key support levels, with rebounds expected towards $ 70–$ 72 and $ 68–$ 70 respectively. Gold and Silver have bounced back from recent lows, aiming for $ 3,350–$ 3,400 and $ 37.0–$ 37.5. Copper needs a break above $ 5.15 to move higher, else it may fall to $ 5.00–$ 4.80. Natural gas has dropped but could see a recovery towards $ 3.50–$ 3.60 if support at $ 3.40 holds.

Brent ($ 66.55) is holding above its immediate support level. As long as this support remains intact, we continue to expect a potential bounce back towards $ 70–$ 72 in the near term.

WTI ($ 64.88) is trading along its support level. While this support holds, a rebound towards $ 68–$ 70 can be expected in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,329.10) tested a low of $ 3,250.50 and bounced back to close above $ 3,300 yesterday. While above $ 3,250, a gradual rise towards $ 3,350–$ 3,400 is likely in the near term.

Silver ($ 36.31) fell to a low of $ 35.59 but recovered to close higher at $ 36.17 yesterday. Our outlook remains positive for a rise towards the $ 37.0–$ 37.5 zone in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.0890) has dipped slightly after failing to break above $ 5.15. A sustained break above this level is needed for a further rise towards $ 5.20–$ 5.25. Otherwise, it may revert back to $ 5.00–$ 4.80 on the downside.

Natural Gas ($ 3.4520) has declined sharply, aligning with our alternate expectation. Immediate support is near $ 3.40. While this holds, a bounce back towards $ 3.50–$ 3.60 is possible in the near term.

{12:00 17:30 IN IIP
4.8 Previous 2.7 …Actual 1.2

{6:00 11:30 UK GDP
Expectations 0.7 Previous 0.7 Actual 0.7