Trump’s ‘’One, Big, Beautiful Bill” of spending and tax cuts got narrowly passed that is estimated to add $ 3.4 trillion to the nation’s $ 36.2 trillion debt. The Dollar Index rose well yesterday. The range of 96-98/99 can hold for some time. The Euro can test the support near 1.17 if it falls further. The targets of 1.19-1.20 are kept alive for now. EURINR needs to see a decisive rise past 101 to turn bullish in the near term. EURJPY has risen past 170 and if sustained, can extend the ongoing rise to 175 as well. USDJPY and USDCNY can broadly trade within the 142-146 and 7.14-7.18 region respectively in the near term. The Aussie and Pound continue to trade within 0.645-0.660 and 1.35-1.38 range. USDINR yesterday observed the low of 85.1925 before closing higher. Still, there is enough room to extend the fall to 85.00-84.75 in the coming sessions before halting.

Greater than previous US NFP at 147k(144k) and lower US Unemployment at 4.1%(4.2%) led Dollar Index (97.07) to test 97.422 yesterday. The index is holding the range of 96-98/99 for now. A strong rise past 98-99 will be needed to assume that the downtrend has ended. The downside can be limited to 96 max.

EURUSD (1.1761) had declined due to Dollar strength. Immediate support is coming at 1.17 which can be tested before attempting to bounce back again. The target of 1.19-1.20 is kept alive for now.

EURINR (100.5626) slipped to the low of 100.10 but later recovered as well. A decisive break past 101 level will be needed to bring 102 or higher levels into picture. Watch price action closely around the current levels.

EURJPY (170.245) has risen slightly past the 170 level. If the rise sustains above 170, it can get extended to the resistance coming at 175 in the near term. Failure to do so can drag it back within its 170-168 range.

Dollar-Yen (145.23) had surged sharply to the high of 145.23 before cooling down a bit. Only a break past 146 can make the pair bullish again. Till then, a broad range of 142-146 can hold for some time.

USDCNY (7.1661) has the support coming at 7.14, above which a range of 7.14-7.18 can hold in the near term.

Aussie (0.6567) had fallen sharply to the low of 0.6537 before recovering a bit from there. The range of 0.645-0.660 can continue to hold before a break happens on either side.

Pound (1.3654) has risen well and if sustained, can extend it further to 1.38 as well. Overall, the 1.35-1.38 range can hold in the near term.

USDINR (85.4550) slipped below 85.45 yesterday, tested the low of 85.1925 before closing above it. Currently on the NDF it is trading near 85.45 but chances are that pair extends the ongoing fall to 85.00-84.75 before halting.

The US Treasury yields have risen sharply after the jobs data release on Thursday. However, the yields have key resistances near current levels. While that holds, they can fall back again and keep the broader downtrend intact. The US NFP increased by 147K as against the market expectation of 120K. The Unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%. The German yields have come down again. Failure to rise back again can negate the chances of the rise mentioned yesterday. It will also keep the chances alive of seeing more fall. The 10Yr GoI remains intact within its range and is inching down within it.

The US 10Yr (4.35%) and 30Yr (4.86%) Treasury yields have risen sharply. But resistance is near current levels which can cap further rise. We expect the yields to turn down and fall back to 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) over the medium term.

The German 10Yr (2.61%) and 30Yr (3.07%) yields have come down. Failure to rise back immediately will reduce the chances of the rise to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr) mentioned yesterday. It will also keep alive the chances of seeing 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.85%-2.8% (30Yr) on the downside. We will have to wait and watch.

The 10Yr GoI (6.3414%) is continuing to inch down. It can test the lower end of its 6.3%-6.4% range. The range is likely to remain intact. The bias however remains bullish to see a break above 6.4% and a rise to 6.5% eventually.

Global indices remain broadly positive with mild corrections in some. The Dow may test 45,000–45,200 before a dip to 44,700–44,500 and then head towards 46,000. DAX stays bullish towards 24,500–25,000 with support at 23,700–23,500. Nifty has support near current levels; while that holds, a bounce to 25,700–26,000 is possible, else a dip to 25,250–25,200 before a reversal. Nikkei could rise towards 41,000 while above 39,500. Shanghai remains range-bound between 3,465–3,415.

The Dow (44828.53, +0.77%) continues to move up. It can test 45000-45200. Thereafter a corrective dip to 44700-44500 is a possibility before heading up towards 46000.

DAX (23934.13, 0.61%) has moved up further. The bullish view is intact to see 24500-25000. Support is in the 23700-23500 region.

Nifty (25405.30, -0.19%) has support near current levels. While that holds, a bounce back move to 25700-26000 is possible. In case a fall below 25400 happens, then 25250-25200 can be seen before the reversal happens.

Nikkei (39,891.28, -0.55%) is pulling back from the high of 40,161. As long as it holds above 39,500, a rise towards 41,000 remains likely.

Shanghai (3,459.67, -0.04%) closed just below its immediate resistance near 3,465. While this level holds, the index may trade within the 3,465–3,415 range over the next few sessions.

Brent and WTI have seen minor dips but remain bullish, and can rise towards $ 70–$ 72 and $ 68–$ 70 respectively. Gold remains range-bound between $ 3,300–$ 3,400 unless it breaks above $ 3,400. Silver has risen above $ 37 and could head towards $ 37.5–$ 38. Copper may dip to $ 5.10 before resuming its uptrend towards $ 5.30–$ 5.40. Natural Gas is testing support near $ 3.40—holding above could lead to a bounce towards $ 3.50–$ 3.60, while a break below may drag it down to $ 3.20–$ 3.00.

Brent ($ 68.80) dipped slightly yesterday but continues to trade above $ 68. A further rise towards $ 70–$ 72 is likely in the near term.

WTI ($ 67.08) also saw a slight dip yesterday, but the outlook remains bullish towards $ 68–$ 70 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,343.30) has dipped. A break above $ 3,400 is required for a rise towards $ 3,450; otherwise, it could fall back to $ 3,300 and remain range-bound between $ 3,300–$ 3,400 for some time.

Silver ($ 37.05) has moved above $ 37 as expected and may rise further towards $ 37.5–$ 38.0 in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.1425) has reversed from the immediate trend resistance near $ 5.20. A dip to $ 5.10 can be seen in the near term before continuing its bullish trend towards $ 5.30–$ 5.40.

Natural Gas ($ 3.4090) has, contrary to expectations, returned to its immediate support and is now putting pressure on it. A sustained break below would confirm bearishness and target $ 3.20–$ 3.00 on the downside. If the support holds, price could bounce back towards $ 3.50–$ 3.60.

9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
-0.1 …Previuos 0.1

DATA Last Thursday

0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
…Expectations 5.08 …Previous 5.41 …Actual 2.24

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
58.7 …Expectations 60.7 …Previous 58.8 …Actual 60.4

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
0.0 …Expectations 0.1 …Previous -0.1 …Actual 0.1

9:00 14:30 EU Composite PMI
…Expectations 50.0 …Previous 49.7 …Actual 50.6

12:30 18:00 US NFP
157 …Expectation 120 …Previous 139 …Actual 147

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expectation 4.3 …Previous 4.2 …Actual 4.1

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.3 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.4 …Actual 0.2

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.39 …Actual 0.3

12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectation -69.9 …Previous -61.6 …Actual -71.50