The Dollar Index continues to remain stable within its range of 96-98/99 for now. The Euro and EURINR can test the support near 1.17 and 100.50-100.00 respectively before possibly attempting to target 1.19-1.20 and 102 or higher levels thereafter. EURJPY needs to see a sustained rise past 170 to bring 175 into the picture. USDJPY and USDCNY can broadly trade within the 142-146 and 7.14-7.18 region respectively in the near term. The Aussie and Pound continue to trade within 0.666-0.645 and 1.38-1.35 range. USDINR yesterday can extend the fall to 85.00-84.75 in the coming sessions before halting.

Dollar Index (97.07) looks stable around the 97 region. Overall, the range of 96-98/99 is holding well for now. The index needs to see a strong rise past 98-99 to begin a fresh upward rally in the medium term. The downside can be limited to 96.

EURUSD (1.1773) and EURINR (100.6469) have immediate support coming at 1.17 and 100.50-100.00 region which can be tested before attempting to bounce back again. The target of 1.19-1.20 and 102 or higher levels are kept alive for now respectively.

EURJPY (170.245) needs to sustain its rise above 170 to head towards 175. Else, it can get dragged back within its 170-168 range.

Dollar-Yen (144.686) continues to trade within its 142-146 range. Only a break past 146 can make the pair bullish again.

The USDCNY (7.1661) is narrowing within 7.16-7.17 region since the last few sessions. Still, while the support at 7.14 holds, a range of 7.14-7.18 can remain intact in the near term.

Aussie (0.6523) is coming off within its range of 0.66-0.65. Any fall below 0.65 if seen can drag it to 0.64 or lower in the coming sessions. Watch price action closely around the current levels.

Pound (1.3631) failed to sustain its rise and turned lower from 1.2681 itself. Currently the pair is nearing the lower end of its 1.38-1.35 range but while the support near 1.35 holds, it is likely to bounce back again.

The lower targets of 85.00-84.75 can be achieved in the USDINR (85.4490) while it trades below 85.75-85.50.

The US Treasury yields remain higher but stable. Resistances are there to cap the upside. We expect the yields to reverse lower and fall in the coming days. The German yields are stable. They have to rise back immediately in order to avoid more fall this week. We will have to wait and watch. The 10Yr GoI remains stable within the range. It can continue to oscillate in the range for some more time before making a bullish breakout.

The US 10Yr (4.33%) and 30Yr (4.86%) Treasury yields remain high but stable. Resistance at 4.35%-4.4% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr) can cap the upside. We expect the yields to reverse lower and fall to 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) going forward.

The German 10Yr (2.60%) and 30Yr (3.08%) yields remain stable. As mentioned earlier, immediate rise is needed to go up to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr). Else the yields can fall back to 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.85%-2.8% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.3528%) remains stable within the 6.3%-6.4% range. The bias is bullish to see a break above 6.4% and a rise to 6.5% eventually. But for now, the range is intact.

The Dow Jones had closed higher last week on higher-than-expected NFP data. But there could be some sell off this week. The country-wise trade tariffs has been said to be implemented from 1st August 2025, leaving room for some more volatility this month as there can be potential negotiations. Above 43500, Dow remains bullish. Dax and Nifty look bullish while above 23500 and 25250 respectively. Nikkei needs to hold above 39500 to rise towards 41000 else can decline to 39000-38500 in the medium term. Shanghai could see some consolidation within the broad 3500-3400 region.

The Dow (44828.53, +0.77%) closed on a stronger note last week on better-than-expected NFP data release. But the stock futures fell yesterday as Trump suggested that the country-specific trade tariffs would take effect from 1st August 2025, with possible room for some more negotiation. The Dow could face a dip today but while above 43500, the overall uptrend remains intact.

DAX (23787.45, -0.61%) dipped to close below 23800 last week but while above the support near 23500, the index can have the potential to rise towards 24500-25000. Else the index can fall further to 23000.

Nifty (25461, +0.22%) has support near 25250 above which there is scope for a bounce back towards 25600 or higher. Only a break below 25250, if seen can take it sharply down towards 25200-25000.

Nikkei (39597.29, -0.54%) has dipped and trades above the support at 39500. It is crucial to determine if the index continues to trade above the support level, which could take it to 41000; otherwise, it may fall towards 39000-38500.

Shanghai (3465.62, -0.19%) had tested 3500 last week but thereafter dipped back towards 3460. While below 3500, the index can trade sideways within 3500-3400 region.

Crude prices have opened lower but may bounce back if key supports hold. Gold remains range-bound between $ 3,400-$ 3,250, while Silver remains bullish towards $ 38. Copper is falling and may dip to $ 4.90 before recovery. Natural gas needs to hold above $ 3.30 to avoid a drop to $ 3.20–$ 3.00.

Brent ($ 67.65) has opened lower at $ 67.64 compared to Friday’s close of $ 68.30. While the support at $ 67 holds, we expect a bounce back towards $ 70–$ 72 in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 65.84) has opened lower at $ 65.70. As long as the immediate support at $ 65 holds, we expect the price to rebound towards $ 68–$ 70 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,324.60) has declined as expected and may remain range-bound between $ 3,400 – $ 3,250 for some time until a breakout occurs on either side.

Silver ($ 37.11) is moving up as anticipated and can rise further towards $ 37.50–$ 38.00 in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.0140) dipped to $ 5.12 on Friday as expected but has opened lower at $ 5.0645 today and continues to fall. A further decline towards $ 4.90 is possible in the near term before a rebound is seen.

Natural Gas ($ 3.3050) closed above $ 3.40 on Friday but has opened below that level today. Immediate support is at $ 3.30, and while it holds, a bounce back towards $ 3.40–$ 3.45 is likely. However, a sustained break below this level could drag prices down to $ 3.20–$ 3.00.

9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
-0.1 …Previuos 0.1

DATA Last Thursday

0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
…Expectations 5.08 …Previous 5.41 …Actual 2.24

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
58.7 …Expectations 60.7 …Previous 58.8 …Actual 60.4

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
0.0 …Expectations 0.1 …Previous -0.1 …Actual 0.1

9:00 14:30 EU Composite PMI
…Expectations 50.0 …Previous 49.7 …Actual 50.6

12:30 18:00 US NFP
157 …Expectation 120 …Previous 139 …Actual 147

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expectation 4.3 …Previous 4.2 …Actual 4.1

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.3 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.4 …Actual 0.2

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.39 …Actual 0.3

12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectation -69.9 …Previous -61.6 …Actual -71.50