The reciprocal tariffs deadline ends today. Any new updates on the tariffs front might keep the markets volatile in the near term. The Dollar Index needs a break past 99 to make the outlook bullish. Till then the range of 96-98 can hold. The Euro is nearing support at 1.17. EURINR needs to give a break on either side of its 100-101 range. EURJPY can head towards 175 in the near term. USDJPY and USDCNY can broadly trade within the 142-147/48 and 7.14-7.18 region respectively in the near term before a break happens. The Aussie and Pound have risen well from the immediate support around 0.645 and 1.35 level respectively. The pairs can continue to trade within 0.645-0.660 and 1.35-1.38 range. USDINR is holding the range of 86.00-85.50 for now.

Dollar Index (97.526) observed the high of 97.88 before cooling down a bit. A decisive break past its resistance near 98 will be needed to end the downtrend. Till then, the immediate range of 96-98 can hold.

EURUSD (1.1721) is gradually coming off but still a break below 1.16 will be needed to assure it has peaked out. Until then, the probability of EURUSD attempting to rise back towards 1.18 or higher cannot be fully ruled out.

EURINR (100.5285) continues to oscillate between the 100-101 region and a decisive break on either side will be needed to get further directional clarity. The target of 102-103 is kept open while the cross trades above 100.

EURJPY (172.20) is rising in line with our bullish view and can test 175 in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (146.90) is trading just below the immediate resistance between 147-148 level. While the resistance holds, a pull back towards 145 can happen. Broadly, a range of 142-147/48 can continue to persist in the near term. Only a rise past 148 can bring 150 and higher levels into picture.

USDCNY (7.1789) needs to see a decisive break past 7.18 to head towards 7.20 in the coming sessions. Else, a range of 7.18-7.14 can remain intact in the near term.

Aussie (0.6531) bounced well from the support near 0.645. Overall, it can continue to trade within the 0.65-0.66 region in the near term.

Pound (1.3578) observed the low of 1.3524 but later recovered as well. While above 1.35, the Pound is likely to rise back within its 1.35-1.38 range.

USDINR (85.7290) tested the high of 85.8025 before closing lower. Overall, the immediate range of 86.00-85.50 is likely to persist for a while before a decisive break is seen on either side.

The US Treasury yields have moved up further. That keeps the door open for them to move up further higher. The German yields have risen further sharply. The bullish view is intact. There is room to rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI has inched up and remains well within the sideways range.

The US 10Yr (4.41%) and 30Yr (4.93%) Treasury yields have inched up further. The 10Yr has risen just above 4.4%. While this sustains there is room to see 4.5% and higher levels. The 30Yr can rise to 5% while above 4.9%.

The German 10Yr (2.68%) and 30Yr (3.17%) yields have risen sharply. The bullish view is intact to see 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.2%-3.3% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.3668%) has inched up slightly. The 6.3%-6.4% range remains intact.

The Dow Jones fell sharply on announcements of trade tariffs by Trump for different countries and his proposed tariff announcements on copper imports (50%) and on pharmaceutical products (yet to be announced). Dow can test 43500-43000 before rebounding in the medium term. Dax trades higher and can extend to 24500-25000 in the near term. Nifty too was up yesterday and while above support at 25400, the index can continue to rise towards 25600-25800. Nikkei has dipped slightly while Shanghai has risen sharply to break above the immediate resistance at 3500, However both the indices look bullish for the near term while above 39500 and 3500 respectively.

The Dow (44240.76, -0.37%) fell sharply after the announcement of the 50% tariff on Copper imports and that the latest deadline of 1st August will not be extended further. There is scope for a fall to 43500-43000 before the index picks up some bullishness in the medium term.

DAX (24206.91, +0.55%) continues to rise on optimistic EU-US trade deal expectations. While above 23500, Dax can head towards 24500-25000 in the near term before facing any near-term rejection.

Nifty (25522.50, +0.24%) is holding above the immediate support at 25250/400 and can rise to test 25600-25800 in the next few sessions if the bounce to 25495 seen yesterday extends further. Overall near term looks bullish.

Nikkei (39633.11, -0.15%) has dipped today but a break below 39500 is needed for the index to fall further towards 39000-38500 else we may see some stability above 39500 before an eventual rise in the longer run towards 40000-41000. Watch price action for the next few sessions.

Shanghai (3504.36, +0.20%) has broken above the near term resistance at 3500 but we need to see if the rise sustains and takes the index further up towards 3550-3600 eventually.

Crude prices continue to rise, with Brent targeting $ 74 amid renewed Red Sea tensions, and WTI heading towards $ 72. Gold is stable above $ 3,300, with potential to rebound towards $ 3,450 unless it breaks lower. Silver remains range-bound between $ 36.50–$ 37.50, awaiting a breakout. Copper spiked to nearly $ 5.90 on news of a proposed 50% U.S. tariff and stays bullish above $ 5.50. Natural gas dipped unexpectedly but could still rise towards $ 3.50 if the support at $ 3.30 holds.

Brent ($ 69.95) is moving up as Houthi rebels have resumed attacks on ships sailing through the Red Sea, potentially prompting retaliatory U.S. military strikes. A further rise towards $ 72–$ 74 looks likely in the near term.

WTI ($ 68.09) is inching up in line with our expectations and may rise further towards $ 70–$ 72 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,310.40) is currently holding above $ 3,300. While it remains above this level, we expect a bounce back towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450. However, a sustained break below could drag the price lower towards $ 3,250–$ 3,200. We will have to wait and watch.

Silver ($ 36.82) is struggling to break above $ 37.50. Only a sustained move above this level would confirm further bullishness towards $ 38–$ 40 in the coming months. For now, it may trade between $ 37.50–$ 36.50 until a breakout occurs on either side.

Copper ($ 5.6220) surged to a high of $ 5.8955 after U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on metal imports. It is currently trading lower near $ 5.60, but while it sustains above $ 5.50, the outlook remains bullish towards $ 5.80–$ 6.00 or higher in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.3350) has declined contrary to our expectations. However, as long as support at $ 3.30 holds, we maintain our view of a potential rise towards $ 3.45–$ 3.50 in the near term.

1:30 07:00 CN CPI (YoY)
…Expectation -0.1 …Previous -0.1

1:30 07:00 CN PPI
…Expectation -3.2 …Previous -3.3

DATA YESTERDAY

4:30 10:00 RBA Meeting
…Expectation 3.6 …Previous 3.9 …Actual 3.9