The Dollar Index is holding the range of 98-96 for now. The Euro above 1.16 has a scope to rise back towards 1.18 in the near term. EURINR continues to move within the 100-101 region. EURJPY has immediate support near 169 which can be tested if the fall extends further. Overall the target of 175 is kept open. USDJPY and USDCNY can broadly trade within the 148-145/42 and 7.18-7.14 region respectively in the near term before a break happens. The Aussie and Pound have risen a bit and can continue to trade within 0.645-0.660 and 1.35-1.38 range. USDINR on the NDF is trading at 85.6410. The pair needs to see either a break past 86.00 or a fall below 85.50 to get further directional clarity.

Dollar Index (97.526) is holding the immediate range of 98-96 quite well. Only a strong break past its resistance near 98 can end the downtrend. Till then, the range can persist.

EURUSD (1.1721) had initially slipped to the low of 1.1689 but later recovered as well. While the deeper support at 1.16 holds, the EURUSD has a scope to rise back towards 1.18 or even higher.

EURINR (100.5285) continues to move within the 100-101 region and a decisive break on either side will be needed to get further directional clarity. The target of 102-103 is kept open while the cross trades above 100.

EURJPY (171.37) tested 172.28 before turning lower. Immediate support is coming at 169, which can be tested if the fall extends further. Overall, the target of 175 is kept open for now.

Dollar-Yen (145.97) has fallen as anticipated and is likely to test 145 in the near term. Immediate resistance is coming at 147-148 level. Broadly, a range of 142-147/48 can continue to persist in the near term.

USDCNY (7.1757) failed to sustain its rise past 7.18 and started coming off from 7.1830 itself. Currently it is back within 7.18-7.14 range and it can hold for some time until a break past 7.18 happens.

Aussie (0.6548) and Pound (1.3608) has moved up a bit. Overall, the range of 0.645-0.660 and 1.35-1.38 remains intact for now.

USDINR (85.6410) tested 85.9225 before eventually coming down. A break is needed on either side of its immediate range of 86.00-85.50 for further clarity. Till then, the range can hold for some time.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply. Failure to sustain higher has brought back the earlier bearish view of seeing a fall into the picture now. So, the chance of a rise has got reduced and further fall can be seen in the coming days. The German yields remain higher and stable. View is bullish. The yields can rise more. The 10Yr GoI is moving up within the range.

The US 10Yr (4.32%) and 30Yr (4.86%) Treasury yields have come down sharply. The 10Yr and 30Yr have failed to sustain above 4.4% and 4.9% respectively. Failure to rise back can drag them down to 4.2%4.15% (10Yr) and 4.75%-4.7% (30Yr). The rise to 4.5% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) will get negated then.

The German 10Yr (2.67%) and 30Yr (3.16%) yields remain higher and stable. The view remains bullish to see a rise to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.2%-3.3% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.3795%) is moving up within the 6.3%-6.4% range which remains intact for now. The bias is positive to see a breakout above 6.4% and rise to 6.5%.

The Dow Jones can remain bullish above 44200 and eventually rise to 45000 or higher. Dax on the other hand is headed towards resistance at 25000 from where a rejection can be seen. Nifty is stable over the last few sessions but while above 25400, it can rise towards 28000. Nikkei is currently trading in a narrow range of 39500-40000 and needs to break on either side to confirm further movement. Shanghai will have to sustain above 3500 to. Move up slowly towards 3550-3600 else can face an initial dip to 3475-3450.

The Dow (44458.30, -0.49%) limited its fall to 44200 and has moved up slightly to close in the green. The index will have to continue moving up from here to turn bullish again towards 45000 or higher. Else, failure to hold above 44200 can initiate a dip to 44000-43500 which could then delay our expected bullishness.

DAX (24549.56, +1.42%) continues to rise sharply and is headed towards resistance near 25000 from where a rejection can be expected towards 24000-23500 in the medium term.

Nifty (25476.10, -0.18%) dipped slightly yesterday but while above support near 25400, the index may rise toward 25800 in the near term. Thereafter a sustained break past 28000 is needed for further bullishness to set it. Immediate trade range of 25400-25800 can be seen for the next few sessions.

Nikkei (39604.65, -0.54%) is trading in a very narrow range of 40000-39500. A break on either side from here is necessary for further movement. It is a wait and watch mode for now with higher likelihood of an upside breakout.

Shanghai (3500.58, +0.22%) needs to sustain above 3500 to move up slowly in the coming weeks towards 3550-3600 else a decline from current levels can take it down to initially test 3475-3450 region. Watch price action at 3500.

Crude prices are rising as expected, with Brent targeting $ 72–$ 74 and WTI aiming for $ 70–$ 72. Gold remains strong above $ 3,300 with potential to rebound towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450, while Silver continues to trade sideways within the $ 37.50–$ 36.50 range. Copper stays bullish above $ 5.50, likely heading towards $ 5.80–$ 6.00. However, Natural gas has broken support and may fall further towards $ 3.00.

Brent ($ 70.12) is moving up as expected. A further rise towards $ 72–$ 74 looks likely in the near term.

WTI ($ 68.24) is inching up in line with our expectations and may rise further towards $ 70–$ 72 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,329.50) is trading above the $ 3,300 level. While it holds above this mark, a bounce back towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450 is expected. However, a sustained break below could drag prices lower towards $ 3,250–$ 3,200. We will have to wait and watch.

Silver ($ 36.68) as mentioned yesterday, is trading within the $ 37.50–$ 36.50 range and may continue to remain in this band until a breakout occurs on either side.

Copper ($ 5.6075) is holding above $ 5.50 as expected. The outlook remains bullish, with potential to rise towards $ 5.80–$ 6.00 or higher in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.2170) has broken below its immediate support, contrary to our expectations, and fell to a low of $ 3.1490 yesterday. A further decline towards $ 3.00 can be seen in the near term.

6:00 11:30 UK Trade Bal
…Kshtij -23.8 …Expectation -21.1 …Previous -23.2

1:30 07:00 CN CPI (YoY)
…Expectation -0.1 …Previous -0.1 …Actual 0.1

{1:30 07:00 CN PPI
…Expectation -3.2 …Previous -3.3 …Actual 3.6