The Dollar Index is trading near the resistance at 98. For now, the immediate range of 99-96 remains intact. The Euro above 1.16 can attempt to rise back towards 1.18. EURINR is trading within the 100-101 range. EURJPY above 171 can target 175 in the near term. USDJPY and USDCNY are holding the respective ranges of 148-145 and 7.18-7.16/14 for now. The Aussie can continue to trade within the 0.66-0.65 region. The Pound has slipped below 1.35 but has another support at 1.34 which can be tested before attempting to rise back towards 1.36. USDINR can trade within 86.00-85.50 region for now. IN CPI data release scheduled today.

Dollar Index (97.867) has risen a bit but faces immediate resistance at 98 level. A strong break past 98-99 will be needed to begin a fresh rally. Else, it can fall back within its range of 99-96. Watch price action closely.

EURUSD (1.1685) tested 1.1660 before recovering a bit from there. While the deeper support near 1.16 holds, the EURUSD can attempt to bounce back towards 1.18.

EURINR (100.3101) continues to hold its 100-101 range for now.

EURJPY (171.96) had indeed risen past 172, but could not sustain and started coming off from 172.42 itself. Still the target of 175 is kept alive while the cross trades above 171.

Dollar-Yen (147.57) tested 147.57 before cooling down. Resistance near 148 remains evident for now and while below it, the pair can trade within a narrow range of 148-145 before a break happens on either side.

USDCNY (7.1696) has interim support just below current levels which needs to hold to rise back towards 7.18 again. Failure to do so, can drag it lower to 7.14. Overall, a range of 7.18-7.16/14 can hold for some time.

Aussie (0.6562) seems to be holding well below the resistance near 0.66 and is likely to extend the fall towards 0.65 in the near term. The pair has been consolidating within 0.66-0.65 region for a while and a break on either side will be needed to determine where the Aussie is headed. .

Pound (1.3558) has slipped below 1.35 but a deeper support is coming at 1.34, above which the pair can attempt to bounce back towards 1.36 in the near term. Only a break below 1.34 if seen can negate the bullish outlook and we might have to revise our targets accordingly.

USDINR (85.8090) can trade within its immediate range of 86.00-85.50 until a break happens.

The US Treasury yields have risen well. If this sustains, the bias will remain positive and the yields can rise more this week. The US CPI data release tomorrow could be important. A strong (high) CPI number can aid the yields to go higher. The German yields keep our bullish view intact and are continuing to move up. The 10Yr GoI has come off sharply failing to sustain the breakout of its range. That keeps the range intact, and the yields can continue to oscillate within it for some more time.

The US 10Yr (4.42%) and 30Yr (4.96%) Treasury yields have risen well above 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr). While this sustains, the yields can rise to 4.55%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.15%-5.2% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.72%) and 30Yr (3.22%) yields continue to move up. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.3606%) has come-off sharply from a high of 6.4034%. That keeps the 6.3%-6.4% range intact. The yield can continue to oscillate within it for some more time.

Most equities closed lower last week and could extend losses early this week as well. The Dow Jones and Dax can test 44000 and 24000 in the near term, but it would be crucial to see if they break lower towards 43500/43000 and 23500/23000 or bounce higher. Nifty is nearing support at 25100-2500,0 which needs to hold for the index to rise back towards 25500 or higher; else it can target 24500. Nikkei has scope to test 39000 in the near term while Shanghai looks bullish above 3500 and can soon target 3600.

The Dow (44371.51, -0.63%) is holding below the near-term resistance of 45000 and trading between our earlier mentioned range of 45000-44000. It would be crucial to watch if the Dow can break below 44000 and extend its fall further towards 43500-43000 or rise back from 44000 in the coming sessions.

DAX (24255.31, -0.82%) fell on Friday and could extend to test 24000. Thereafter, if it breaks lower, we may look for targets of 23500-23000 in the medium term. A bounce from 24000 would be necessary to prevent further decline as expected. Watch price action near 24000 in the next few sessions.

Nifty (25149.85, -0.81%) closed lower on Friday and is nearing immediate support near 25100-25000, which needs to hold for the index to rise back towards 25500 or higher. Failure to hold above 25000 can open lower levels of 24500 into the picture.

Nikkei (39403.81, -0.42%) trades slightly lower today and has scope to test 39000 before rebounding from there later this week.

Shanghai (3523.31, +0.37%) tested 3555 on Friday but closed sharply lower at 3510. The index is trading higher again today and while above 3500, it can slowly rise to the target of 3600. View is bullish above 3500.

Crude prices are rising on speculation of possible U.S. sanctions on Russian energy exports, with Brent likely heading towards $ 72–$ 74 and WTI towards $ 70–$ 72. Gold may extend towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450, while Silver looks bullish towards $ 42–$ 44. Copper remains firm above $ 5.50 and may climb to $ 5.90–$ 6.00. Natural gas has opened higher and could rise further towards $ 3.45–$ 3.50.

Brent ($ 70.43) is rising on speculation that President Trump may announce sanctions on Russian energy exports on Monday. A further rise towards $ 72–$ 74 is possible in the near term.

WTI ($ 68.43) has moved up in line with our expectations and may rise further towards $ 70–$ 72 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,373.70) is inching up as expected and could extend the rally towards the previously mentioned levels of $ 3,400–$ 3,450 in the near term.

Silver ($ 39.12) has broken above $ 38 and surged to a high of $ 39.23 on Friday. The outlook remains bullish with potential to rise towards $ 42–$ 44 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 5.5920) is holding above $ 5.50. A range of $ 5.50–$ 5.70 may hold for some time before resuming its bullish trend towards $ 5.90–$ 6.00.

Natural Gas ($ 3.4180) closed lower at $ 3.31 on Friday but has opened with a gap-up at $ 3.40 today, as expected. A further rise towards $ 3.45–$ 3.50 can be seen in the near term.

6:30 12:00 IN WPI
…Previous 0.39

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
2.93 …Previous 2.82

DATA YESTERDAY

6:00 11:30 UK Trade Bal
…Kshtij -23.8 …Expectation -21.1 …Previous -23.2

{12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
Expectations 1.3 …Previous 8.8