The Dollar Index needs to see a rise past 98-99 to confirm that the downtrend has ended. Till then,the range of 99-96 can hold. The Euro is nearing the support around 1.1650-1.1600. Whether the support holds or extends the fall even further will have to be seen. EURINR is trading within the 100-101 range. EURJPY has risen as anticipated and can target 175 in the near term. USDJPY and USDCNY are holding the respective ranges of 148-145 and 7.18-7.16/14 for now. The Aussie continues to trade within the 0.66-0.65 region. The Pound is nearing the support at 1.34 which can be tested before attempting to rise back towards 1.36. USDINR yesterday tested 86.0525 before coming down. A further rise past 86.05 if seen can open the doors for 86.25-86.50. Else, it can continue to trade within 86.05-85.50 region.

Dollar Index (98.08) is hovering near the resistance at 98 level. A strong break past 98-99 will confirm the end of downtrend and a fresh rally can begin thereafter. For now, its range of 96-99 can continue to hold. Watch price action closely.

EURUSD (1.1668) has immediate support between 1.1650-1.1600. Need to see whether the support holds or the pair extends the fall below it. For now, while above 1.16, the chance of the pair rising back towards 1.18 is kept alive.

EURINR (100.3356) continues to hold its 100-101 range for now.

EURJPY (172.42) has risen as anticipated and is likely to target 175-176 in the near term, while it sustains above 172.

Dollar-Yen (147.75) has immediate resistance at 148, break past which will be needed to bring 150 and higher levels into picture. Till then, the pair can continue to trade within a narrow range of 148-145.

USDCNY (7.1695) has bounced from the support near 7.1665 as mentioned previously. Overall, an immediate range of 7.16-7.18 and a broad range of 7.14-7.18 is likely to persist before a break happens on either side.

Aussie (0.6543) continues to consolidate within 0.66-0.65 region for a while and a break on either side will be needed to determine where the Aussie is headed.

Pound (1.3430) is nearing the support at 1.34 which can be tested soon. Thereafter, a bounce back towards 1.36 is expected in the near term. Only a break below 1.34 if seen can drag it to 1.32 or even lower, thereby negating the rise to 1.36.

USDINR (85.9730) surged to the high of 86.0525 before closing lower. A sustained break above 86.05 is needed for it to move higher towards 86.25-86.50 in the near term. Else, it can trade within a range of 86.05-85.50 for some time.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher. There is room to rise more from here. Near-term outlook is positive. The US CPI data release today will need a watch. A high inflation number could be positive for the yields. The German yields are inching up. The bullish view is intact. The yields can rise more. The 10Yr GoI has risen back within its range. The sideways range is intact for now.

The US 10Yr (4.43%) and 30Yr (4.97%) Treasury yields sustain higher. View remains bullish to see a rise to 4.55%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.15%-5.2% (30Yr) while they remain above 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.73%) and 30Yr (3.24%) yields have inched up. The bullish view is intact to see 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.3791%) has risen back well within the 6.3%-6.4% range. We retain our positive bias to see a break above 6.4% and a rise to 6.5% eventually. But for now, the range is intact.

The Dow Jones rose yesterday and could trade within a broad range of 43500-45000 while the Dax can rise towards 24500 or higher if the bounce sustains above 24000; else a decline to 23500 can again be seen. Nifty has tested the support at 25000 and now needs to sustain the bounce from there to eventually move higher. Nikkei has scope to rise to 40000-41000 in the coming days while above 39000. Shanghai looks gradually bullish towards 3550-3600 while above 3500.

The Dow (44459.65, +0.20%) has risen yesterday. A broad range of 45000-43500 can hold for the next couple of weeks with both the mentioned levels being immediate resistance and support levels.

DAX (24160.64, -0.39%) dipped further to test 23975 yesterday in line with our expectations of testing 24000 but managed to close higher. While the bounce sustains there is scope for a rise back towards 24500 or higher else a decline to 23500 or lower can again come into the picture.

Nifty (25082.30, -0.27%) has tested our mentioned immediate support at 25000 yesterday and managed to close higher at 25082. The support will have to hold in the near term for the index to slowly rise back towards 25250-25400 initially. Above 25000, a range of 25000-25400 can be seen in the coming sessions. Only a break below 25000, if seen will turn our view to the bearish side.

Nikkei (39431.95, -0.070%) moved up to test 39608 yesterday but dipped back from there. There is immediate support at 39000 above which there is scope for a bounce back towards 40000-41000 in the next couple of weeks.

Shanghai (3524.85, +0.15%) is holding trade above 3500 and could have scope to rise eventually towards 3550-3600 in the coming days. View is bullish above 3500.

Crude prices have dipped due to concerns over global growth from U.S. tariff policies, but support levels remain intact, keeping the near-term bullish outlook towards $ 72–$ 74 for Brent and $ 70–$ 72 for WTI. Gold and Silver saw brief declines but are expected to rise towards $ 3400-3,450 and $ 41-42 respectively. Copper is holding above key support at $ 5.50, with a break lower possibly dragging it to $ 5.30. Natural gas remains on track to rise towards $ 3.60 as long as support holds.

Brent ($ 68.99) has fallen contrary to our expectations due to speculation that President Trump’s tariff policies may slow global economic growth and reduce energy demand. As long as the immediate support at $ 68 holds, we maintain our view of a potential rise towards $ 72–$ 74 in the near term.

WTI ($ 66.75) has declined to a low of $ 66.80 yesterday. While the immediate support near $ 66.50/$ 66.00 remains intact, we continue to expect a rise towards $ 70–$ 72 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,360.00) witnessed a dip yesterday, but our outlook remains unchanged for a potential rise towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450 in the near term.

Silver ($ 38.53) has corrected sharply after reaching a high of $ 39.57 yesterday. Immediate support is expected near $ 38, which may be tested in the near term before the bullish trend resumes towards the $ 41–$ 42 levels.

Copper ($ 5.5090) tested a low of $ 5.45 yesterday and is currently holding just above $ 5.50. A break below $ 5.50 could lead to further downside towards the $ 5.40–$ 5.30 range in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.4390) tested a high of $ 3.49 in line with our expectations. It has opened lower at $ 3.44 today, but as long as the immediate support holds, we expect a breakout above $ 3.50 and a subsequent rise towards $ 3.55–$ 3.60 in the near term.

9:00 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
0.1 …Expectation 0.6 …Previous -2.4

9:00 14:30 IN Trade bal
…Previous -21.88

12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
0.1 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.1

12:30 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
0.0 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.1

6:30 12:00 IN WPI
…Previous 0.39 …Actual -0.13

{12:00 17:30 IN CPI
2.93 …Previous 2.82 …Actual 2.10