The Dollar Index has risen well and a confirmed break past 99 can open the doors for 101 in the near term. Till then,the range of 96-99 can hold. The Euro is nearing the support around 1.1600. Failure to see a bounce back can extend the fall to 1.14 as well. EURINR has fallen below 100 and while the resistance at 101 holds, a test to 99-98 looks likely to happen. EURJPY can target 175 in the near term. USDJPY and USDCNY have risen past 148 and 7.18 respectively and if sustained, can test 150 and 7.20 or even further levels in the near term. The Aussie is training lower within its 0.66-0.65 range. The Pound has slipped below 1.34 and failure to see an immediate bounce back can extend the fall to 1.32 or even lower. USDINR for now is holding the range of 86.05-85.50. Only a rise past 86.05 if seen can open the doors for 86.25-86.50 quite well. US PPI, Industrial production and the Capacity Utilisation data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.578) is trading near the upper end of its range of 96-99. A decisive break past 99 can open the doors for 101 in the near term. Till then, the range can continue to persist.

EURUSD (1.1610) is coming off as anticipated and a confirmed break below 1.16 can drag it further to 1.14 in the coming sessions. Immediate upside looks capped at 1.17-1.18 max. Watch price action closely around the current levels.

EURINR (99.80) has slipped below 100 and while the cross trades below the resistance at 101, the ongoing fall can get extended to 99-98 in the near term.

EURJPY (172.90) is gradually moving higher and is likely to target 175-176 in the near term, while it sustains above 172.

Dollar-Yen (148.95) has indeed risen past 148 and while the rise sustains, can get extended to 150 and higher in the near term. The overall outlook appears bullish above 147-146.

USDCNY (7.1818) has finally ended its consolidation zone of 7.14-7.18, as a high of 7.1818 can be seen. The pair can attempt to head towards 7.20, while above 7.16. Thereafter, a strong break past 7.20 will be needed to maintain the bullishness in the trend.

Aussie (0.6521) continues to trade lower within the 0.66-0.65 region for now. Failure to see a bounce back from the current levels can open the doors for 0.64 or even lower levels in the coming sessions.

Pound (1.3388) in line with our lesser preferred view has slipped below 1.34 and while the resistance near 1.3450-1.3500 holds, the Pound can get dragged towards 1.32 or even lower.

USDINR (85.9360) can trade within the range of 86.05-85.50, while it remains below 86.00/86.05. Only a break above 86.05 could trigger a rally towards 86.25-86.50.

The US Treasury yields have risen sharply. As expected, the inflation data release yesterday has given the needed push for the yields. The US Headline CPI rose 2.67% (YoY) in June compared to 2.38% in May, Similarly, the Core CPI rose 2.91% (YoY) in June from 2.77% a month ago. The near-term outlook is positive for the Treasury yields and they can rise more from here. The German yields have dipped slightly. However, the bullish view remains intact, and the yields can rise back again and go up in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI has dipped and remains stuck in a narrow range within the broad sideways range.

The US 10Yr (4.48%) and 30Yr (5.07%) Treasury yields have risen sharply. The rise to 4.55%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.15%-5.2% (30Yr) is happening in line with our expectation. The price action thereafter will need a close watch.

The German 10Yr (2.71%) and 30Yr (3.22%) yields have dipped but are likely to rise back. The view remains bullish. The yields can rise to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.3750%) has dipped again. The broader 6.3%-6.4% range is intact. Within that the yield is now stuck between 6.35% and 6.4%.

The Dow Jones and Dax look bearish for the near term. Both are trading just above crucial levels of 44000 and 24000, which if fail to hold, can take the indices to lower targets of 43500 and 23500 soon. Nifty is holding above the support at 25000 and now needs to sustain the bounce from there to eventually move higher. An immediate trade range of 25000-25400 is possible. Nikkei may trade within 39000-40000 region for some time, with 39000 being an important support. Shanghai does not look as bullish as it looked a few days ago. It may test 3480-3450 initially before rising towards 3550 or higher in the medium term. We may look for some consolidation in the very near term.

The Dow (44023.29, -0.98%) has seen a decent decline while below resistance at 45000. The Dow has come down to test 44000 which, if fails to produce a bounce, could open doors for lower targets of 43500 in the coming sessions. Watch price action near 44000.

DAX (24060.29, -0.42%) is also trading just above the crucial level of 24000, which if breaks on the downside will open lower targets of 23500. Watch price action at 24000.

Nifty (25195.80, +0.45%) rose slightly yesterday, holding above the support at 25000 on the 3-day candles. It is likely to trade within 25000-25400 for a few sessions with the possibility of an eventual rise in the medium term.

Nikkei (39647.78, -0.076%) has support at 39000 above which there is scope for a trade between 39000-40000 for a few sessions. Thereafter, a break on either side would affirm further direction.

Shanghai (3501.70, -0.094%) tested a low of 3483.38 yesterday and is trading near 3500 just now. A sustained dip below 3500 can take the index towards 3480-3450 in the next few sessions before bouncing back to our medium-term bullish targets of 3550-3600 eventually.

Brent and WTI are holding above key support levels, keeping the outlook bullish for a rise towards $ 72–$ 74 and $ 70–$ 72 respectively. Gold has dipped unexpectedly but remains bullish above $ 3,300 with targets of $ 3,400–$ 3,450. Silver tested its support at $ 37.90 and could rebound towards $ 40–$ 42. Copper may rise towards $ 5.65–$ 5.70 if it sustains above $ 5.50, while Natural Gas continues to move higher with potential to reach $ 3.55–$ 3.60.

Brent ($ 69.08) is holding above the immediate support, and while it remains above, we maintain our view of a rise towards $ 72–$ 74 in the near term.

WTI ($ 66.98) is trading above the immediate support, and as long as it holds, our outlook remains intact for a rise towards $ 70–$ 72 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,336.90) has declined contrary to our expectations, but as long as it stays above $ 3,300, our view remains unchanged for a rise towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450 in the near term.

Silver ($ 38.11) tested its immediate support by falling to a low of $ 37.90 yesterday. While this support holds, a bounce back towards $ 40–$ 42 can be expected in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 5.5225) rebounded to $ 5.61 yesterday and is currently trading above $ 5.50. A sustained break below this level is needed for a decline towards $ 5.40–$ 5.30. Otherwise, it may rise further towards $ 5.65–$ 5.70 in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.5340) has moved above $ 3.50 in line with our expectations and can rise further towards $ 3.55–$ 3.60 in the coming sessions.

6:00 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
4.2 …Expectation 3.4 …Previous 3.4

12:30 18:00 US PPI
0.4 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.1

12:30 18:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
0.3 …Expectation 0.2 …Previous 0.1

13:15 18:45 US Industrial Production
0.1 …Expectation 0.1 …Previous -0.2

13:15 18:45 US Capacity Utilization
77.9 …Expectation 77.4 …Previous 77.4

DATA YESTERDAY

9:00 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
0.1 …Expectation 0.6 …Previous -2.4 …Actual 1.7

9:00 14:30 IN Trade bal
…Previous -21.88 …Actual -18.78

12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
0.1 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.1 …Actual 0.3

{12:30 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
0.0 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.1 …Actual 0.2

{12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
…Previous 1.7 …Actual