The major currency pairs remained volatile yesterday due to the market concerns over President Donald Trump’s potential plans to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The Dollar Index needs a confirmed break past 99 to bring 101 into picture. Till then, the range of 96-99 can hold. The Euro is nearing the support around 1.1600. Failure to see a bounce back can extend the fall to 1.14 as well. EURINR below 101 is likely to test 99-98. EURJPY can target 175 in the near term. USDJPY and USDCNY have the scope to rise towards 150 and 7.20 or even higher levels, while they trade above 147/46 and 7.16 respectively. The Aussie has fallen below 0.65 and is likely to extend the fall to 0.64 or lower. The Pound is coming off as anticipated and the target of 1.32 or lower levels remains intact for now. USDINR for now is holding the range of 86.05-85.50. A rise past 86.05 if seen can open the doors for 86.25-86.50 quite well. US Retail sales and Philfied Index data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.578) tested 98.91 but later slipped to the low of 97.71 over the concerns that Trump might fire Jerome Powell. Currently it has recovered well but a decisive break past 99 is needed to head towards 101. Till then, the range of 96-99 can continue to persist.

EURUSD (1.1610) rose to the high of 1.1721 on Dollar weakness but later turned lower as well. A confirmed break below 1.16 can drag it further to 1.14. Immediate upside can be capped at 1.17-1.18 max.

EURINR (99.8957) while trades below the resistance at 101, can extend the fall to 99-98 in the near term.

EURJPY (172.90) observed the high of 173.24 before coming down. The target of 175-176 is kept alive while the pair sustains above 172.

Dollar-Yen (148.95) fell from the high of 149.18 to 146.91 before recovering from there. The USDJPY has immediate support between 147-146, above which the rise can get extended towards 150 and higher.

USDCNY (7.1818) is currently back within its 7.18-7.16/14 range but the bias remains positive to see a rise towards 7.20, while above 7.16.

Aussie (0.6478) has slipped below 0.65 and failure to see a bounce back from the current levels can drag it to 0.64 or even lower levels in the coming sessions.

Pound (1.3391) is coming off in line with our bearish view and while below 1.35, the Pound can extend the fall towards 1.32 or even lower.

USDINR (85.9210) can hold the range of 86.05-85.50 for some time before a break happens preferably on the upside which can take it to 86.25–86.50.

The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. The news on Trump planning to fire the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is weighing on the yields. But on the charts, the near-term outlook continues to remain positive, and there is room to rise more. The German yields have dipped further. Supports are there to limit the downside and keep the bullish outlook intact. The 10Yr GoI continues to remain stable in a narrow range within the broad sideways consolidation.

The US 10Yr (4.46%) and 30Yr (5.02%) Treasury yields have dipped slightly. But while above 4.4%-4.35% (10Yr) and 4.95%-4.9% (30Yr), the bias will remain positive to see 4.55%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.15%-5.2% (30Yr) on the upside.

The German 10Yr (2.68%) and 30Yr (3.21%) yields have dipped further. Support is at 2.65%-2.6% (10Yr) and 3.15% (30Yr). While above these supports, the bias will continue to remain bullish to see a rise to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.3753%) remains stable between 6.35% and 6.4% within the broad 6.3%-6.4% range.

The Dow Jones has held above support at 44000 and can move up but we may not negate chances of fall to 43500 just now. Dax is hovering around the 24000 level and needs to decisively move on either direction for confirmed medium term outlook. Nifty is trading along the support trendline. The 25000-25400 range may hold for some more sessions. Nikkei may continue trade within 39000-40000 region for some more time while Shanghai may test 3480-3450 initially before rising towards 3550 or higher in the medium term. A consolidation in the very near term is likely.

The Dow (44254.78, +0.53%) has risen slightly yesterday holding above 44000 but could have some scope to test support near 43500 before eventually moving higher. However, a re-test of upside resistance near 45000 can be seen soon. A broad range of 43500-45000 can hold for the next couple of weeks at least.

DAX (24009.38, -0.21%) is hovering around the level of 24000, unable to move sharply on either side. A sustained break below 24000 will open lower targets of 23500. Else a sharp rise from here will have to be seen to negate further downside.

Nifty (25212.05, +0.064%) has been trading along the support trendline. It is likely to trade within 25000-25400 for a few sessions with the possibility of an eventual rise in the medium term.

Nikkei (39591.46, -0.18%) could continue trade within 39000-40000 while above support at 39000.

Shanghai (3502.88, -0.025%) is making a low of levels near 3489-3480 over the last 2 sessions but managed to close above 3509. As mentioned yesterday, there could be chances of testing 3480-3450 in the next few sessions before bouncing back to our medium-term bullish targets of 3550-3600 eventually.

Brent and WTI have opened higher after briefly breaking key support levels, keeping alive the possibility of a rebound towards $ 70–$ 72 and $ 68–$ 70 respectively, unless they see a sustained fall below support. Gold remains firm above $ 3,300, targeting $ 3,400–$ 3,450, while Silver may bounce from support towards $ 40–$ 41. Copper stays above $ 5.50 with potential to rise further, and Natural gas continues its gradual climb towards $ 3.60.

Brent ($ 68.84) initially broke below the immediate support at $ 68, falling to a low of $ 67.71 yesterday due to expectations of a global oil surplus later this year. However, it has opened higher today at $ 68.79. As long as it remains above the support, our view of a rise towards $ 70–$ 72 stays intact. A sustained break below $ 68 would negate this view and could drag prices lower towards $ 66–$ 64.

WTI ($ 66.80) broke below the immediate support and tested a low of $ 65.42 yesterday but has opened higher today at $ 66.60. A sustained break below the support would confirm further bearishness towards $ 64–$ 62. Otherwise, a rebound towards $ 68–$ 70 is possible in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,348.60) has moved up and is holding well above $ 3,300. Our view remains unchanged for a rise towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450 in the near term.

Silver ($ 38.16) is hovering near its immediate support. As long as the support holds, a bounce towards $ 40–$ 41 is expected in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 5.5205) remains above $ 5.50. A sustained break below this level is needed to trigger a decline towards $ 5.40–$ 5.30. Otherwise, a bounce towards $ 5.65–$ 5.70 could be seen in the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($ 3.5680) continues to rise gradually as expected and can move further up towards $ 3.55–$ 3.60 in the coming sessions.

1:30 07:00 Australia Labour Force
…Expectation 21.0 …Previous -2.5

2:00 07:30 CN GDP
…Expectation 5.2 …Previous 5.4

5:30 11:00 CN Retail Sales
…Expectation 5.5 …Previous 6.4

5:30 11:00 CN IIP (YoY)
…Expectation 5.6 …Previous 5.8

6:00 11:30 UK Unemp
4.6 …Expectation 4.6 …Previous 4.6

9:00 14:30 EU CPI (YoY)
2.3 …Expectation 2.0 …Previous 2.0

12:30 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
-0.7 …Expectation 0.2 …Previous -0.9

12:30 18:00 US Philifed Index
…Expectation 0.4 …Previous -4.0

13:00 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
…Expectation 55.3 …Previous -7.8

DATA YESTERDAY

6:00 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
4.2 …Expectation 3.4 …Previous 3.4 …Actual 3.6

12:30 18:00 US PPI
0.4 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.1 …Actual 0.0

12:30 18:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
0.3 …Expectation 0.2 …Previous 0.1 …Actual 0.0

13:15 18:45 US Industrial Production
0.1 …Expectation 0.1 …Previous -0.2 …Actual 0.3

{13:15 18:45 US Capacity Utilization
77.9 …Expectation 77.4 …Previous 77.4 …Actual 77.6