The Dollar Index is trading higher within its 96-99 range but we maintain our bullish bias towards 101. The Euro and EURINR can fall towards 1.15-1.14 and 99-98 respectively. EURJPY above 172 has a scope to rise towards 175 in the near term. USDJPY and USDCNY have the scope to rise towards 150 and 7.20 or even higher levels, while they trade above 147/46 and 7.16 respectively. The Aussie and Pound on a break below 0.645 and 1.34 can get dragged towards 0.6400-0.635 and 1.32 or even lower respectively. USDINR if sustained above 86, can head towards 86.50 in the near term.

Dollar Index (98.497) looks stable above 98 but still a rise past 99 will be needed to bring 101 into picture. Till then, the immediate range of 96-99 can continue to hold.

EURUSD (1.1617) and EURINR (100.1411) faces immediate resistance at 100.50 & 1.17 and higher at 101.00 & 1.18 respectively. While the resistances hold, we retain our view of seeing a fall towards 1.15-1.14 and 99-98 respectively.

EURJPY (172.52) has risen well so far and if sustained, can target 175-176 while above 172. Only a break below 172 if seen can drag it back to 170.

Dollar-Yen (148.84) can head towards 150 while the immediate support between 147-146 holds.

USDCNY (7.1762) has slipped slightly below 7.18 but while above 7.16, a test to 7.20 looks likely to happen in the near term.

Aussie (0.6506) tested 0.6541 on Friday before cooling down a bit. For now, an immediate range of 0.660-0.645 but while the resistance near 0.66 holds, the target of 0.64 and lower levels are kept alive for now.

Pound (1.3412) is holding well below the resistance coming between 1.35-1.36 as it tested 1.3475 before turning lower. A break below 1.34 can drag it back towards 1.32 or even lower. Overall, the view remains bearish below 1.36.

USDINR (86.1250) is slowly inching higher. A further rise to 86.50 is possible in the near term. Thereafter, if the resistance near 86.50 holds, it can fall back towards 86 or lower eventually.

The US Treasury yields are coming down to test their support. We expect the support to hold and the yields to reverse higher going forward. The German yields have risen back. That keeps intact our bullish view. The yields have room to rise more. The 10Yr GoI remains stable around the lower end of its narrow range.

The US 10Yr (4.42%) and 30Yr (4.99%) Treasury yields have come down further. Support at 4.4%-4.35% (10Yr) and 4.95%-4.9% (30Yr) can limit the downside. While above this support, the chances of a rise to 4.55%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.15%-5.2% (30Yr) will remain alive.

The German 10Yr (2.69%) and 30Yr (3.23%) yields have risen back. While above 2.65%-2.6% (10Yr) and 3.15% (30Yr) the outlook will remain bullish to see 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.3586%) remains stable around the lower end of the 6.35%-6.4% narrow range. 6.3%-6.4% is the broader trading range. We will have to wait for the range breakout to get clarity. Our bias is positive to breach 6.4% and rise to 6.5%.

The Dow Jones can remain ranged between 44000-45000 while the Dax needs to sustain above 24500 to move higher else can decline to 24000. Nifty closed below 25000 last week and unless it bounces back higher today, it could become vulnerable to fall towards 24809-24600. Nikkei has tested the upper level of our expected 39000-40000 range and could now decline towards 39500-39000. Shanghai has risen well and can target 3550-3600 while above 3500.

The Dow (44342.19, -0.32%) dipped slightly on Friday. Overall the index can range between 44000-45000 for the near term. Thereafter, a decisive break on either side is needed for further directional confirmation.

DAX (24289.51, -0.33%) also dipped in Friday. It is trading below an important level of 24500 below which if sustains, it can decline towards 24000 or lower in the coming days else a rise above 24500 can take it to 25000.

Nifty (24968.40, -0.57% declined on Friday breaking below 25000. If it does not bounce back higher today, it can become vulnerable to fall sharply towards 24800-24600 soon.

Nikkei (39819.11, -0.21%) continues to trade within 39000-40000 region after testing the upper end of the range last week. While below 40000, we may now expect a slow decline towards the lower end of the range.

Shanghai (3534.48, +0.50%) could be headed towards 3550-3600 in the coming days while above 3500.

Crude prices remain supported as long as key levels hold, with Brent targeting $ 72–$ 74 and WTI aiming for $ 70–$ 72. Gold is expected to move towards $ 3400-3,450 and Silver towards $ 40-41. Copper is rising steadily, targeting $ 5.80, while Natural gas has weakened below $ 3.50 and may decline further towards $ 3.30 in the near term.

Brent ($ 69.44) tested a high of $ 70.77 on Friday but has retreated today, opening at $ 69.21. As long as the immediate support at $ 68 holds, our view remains intact for a potential rise towards $ 72–$ 74 in the near term.

WTI ($ 66.23) continues to hover above the immediate support. While this level holds, our view remains unchanged for a rise towards $ 70–$ 72 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,363.70) is holding above $ 3,300 and may gradually move higher towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 38.59) is moving higher in line with our expectations and can rise further towards $ 40–$ 41 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 5.6375) has advanced as expected and could climb further towards $ 5.70–$ 5.80 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.3890) closed above $ 3.50 at $ 3.5650 on Friday. However, it has broken below this level today, opening lower at $ 3.4640, and may decline further towards $ 3.35–$ 3.30 in the near term.

14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
3945 …Previous 4030

DATA YESTERDAY

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
3.7 …Expectation 3.3 …Previous 3.4 …Actual 3.23

12:30 18:00 US Housing Starts
1312 …Expectation 1290 …Previous 1256 …Actual 1327