The Dollar Index continues to hold its 96-99 range for now. The Euro and EURINR are coming off but while above 1.17 and 100.50 targets of 1.19 and 102 are kept alive respectively. EURJPY can head towards 175-176. USDJPY and USDNCY are likely to trade within the 146-149 and 7.14-7.18/20 range in the near term. The Aussie and Pound have immediate support around 0.65 and 1.34 respectively from where a bounce back is anticipated. Overall, both the pairs can trade within 0.6650-0.6450 and 1.36-1.34 range respectively for some time. USDINR has crucial resistance at 86.50/60, below which we retain our view of seeing a fall towards 86 in the coming sessions.

Dollar Index (97.634) continues to trade higher within the 96-99 range. Still, a decisive break past 99 will be needed to bring the upper targets into the picture. The downside is expected to be limited to 96.

EURUSD (1.1749) and EURINR (101.5948) have declined a bit but while above 1.17 and 100.50, both the pair have the scope to test 1.19 and 102, respectively.

EURJPY (173.70) is moving in line with our view and if sustained, can test 175-176 in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (147.83) has moved up further. Overall, the range of 146-149 remains intact for now.

USDCNY (7.1670) observed the high of 7.1703 before coming down. An immediate range of 7.14-7.18/20 is likely to persist for a while.

Aussie (0.6568) is nearing the support around 0.65, which can be tested soon. Overall, the pair is likely to trade within 0.6450-0.6650 region for some time.

Similarly, Pound (1.3433) has immediate support at 1.34, above which a bounce back towards 1.36 is anticipated. Only a break below 1.34, if seen, can drag it to 1.33 or lower. Else, for now, 1.34-1.36 can be the immediate trade range.

USDINR (86.4570) on Friday rose sharply to the high of 86.63 before closing lower. While the resistance at 86.60 holds, a dip to 86 is possible in the near term. Only if a break past 86.60 is seen, can open the doors for 87.00-87.50.

The US Treasury yields remain flat. They have to sustain above their immediate support in order to rise from here itself. Else a dip is possible in the near term. The US Fed meeting outcome on Wednesday will be an important event to watch this week. The German yields sustain higher. The bullish view is intact, and the yields can rise more going forwards. The 10Yr GoI is making the expected bullish breakout. If this gets confirmed, then the yield can rise in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.39%) and 30Yr (4.93%) Treasury yields remain flat and stable. They have to hold above 4.35% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr) to go up towards 4.55%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.15%-5.2% (30Yr) from here itself. Else a dip to 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.85%-4.8% (30Yr) can be seen first.

The German 10Yr (2.71%) and 30Yr (3.2%) yields have inched up. The bullish view is intact to see 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr). Support is at 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.15% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.4009%) is attempting to breach 6.4% in line with our expectation. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing a rise to 6.5%.

The Dow Jones has moved up well on strong earnings date last week. A rise to 45500-46000 looks possible while above 44500. Dax may continue to range within 24000-24600. Nifty declined sharply to our expected levels of 24800. A further decline can drag it towards 24600. Nikkei could head towards 41000-40500 while below resistance near 42000-42500. Shanghai could have some scope to test 3550 before rising towards 3650-3700 eventually in the medium term.

The Dow (44901.92, +0.47%) surged to close higher for the last week on stronger earnings and recent developments in the trade tariffs. The index has scope to rise towards 45500-46000 while above immediate support at 44500.

DAX (24217.50, -0.32%) has been trading in a narrow range of 24000-24600 over the last 11-12 sessions and needs to break on either side to give more clarity on further direction. Till then, we may expect the range to hold which could soon produce a bounce towards 24500-24600 again in the near term while above 24000.

Nifty (24837, -0.90%) has fallen sharply to fall towards the lower end of our expected range of 25250-24800 mentioned last week. A break below 24800 can further extend the dip to 24600. Resistance near 25200-25250 continues to hold strong for the near term.

Nikkei (41169, -0.68%) has crucial resistance near 42000-42500 below which the index can fall towards 41000-40500 in the near term.

Shanghai (3598.57, +0.14%) needs to see a decisive break above 3600 to rise to 3650-3700 else can dip initially towards 3550 before the expected rise is seen later.

Metals and crude prices decline on stronger Dollar. However, Brent and WTI have important supports near $ 68 and $ 64 respectively above which there is scope for a bounce back in the prices. Failure to hold above the mentioned resistances can trigger a sharp decline in the medium term. Gold has support near $ 3300 which needs to hold for the price to rise back to $ 3400-$ 3450. A fall below 3300, if seen can drag price to $ 3200. Silver has support at $ 38 and lower at $ 37 above which there is a decent chance of a rise to $ 39-40. Copper has held below the resistance at 6 and could have scope to decline to 5.60 before pausing. Natural Gas trades higher on a warmer weather forecast for the central and eastern US which could boost demand for the gas.

Brent ($ 68.81) has dipped on a strong Dollar but has important support near $ 68 which if holds can produce a bounce back towards $ 70. A decline below $ 68, if seen can take the price towards $ 66.

WTI ($ 65.51) has dipped on a stronger Dollar. There is immediate support near $ 64 above which we may expect a trade between $ 64-68 region. A decisive break below $ 64, if seen can trigger further fall towards $ 62/60.

Gold ($ 3337.80) has immediate support at $ 3300 above which there is scope for a rise to $ 3400-3450 in the coming days. Failure to hold above $ 3300 can take the price down to $ 3200 before the expected rise comes into play. Watch price action near $ 3300.

Silver ($ 38.44) has crucial near-term support at $ 38 and lower at $ 37 which if hold, can take the price higher towards $ 39-40 in the coming days. Failure to hold above $ 37 would trigger a sharper decline in the medium term towards $ 36-35.

Copper ($ 5.8105) tested 5.9585 last week before declining to close lower. While below the resistance at 6, the price could attempt to decline towards 5.6 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.1850) continues to move higher as the weather forecast for the central and eastern US remains warmer for the 4th to 8th August 2025 which could increase demand for the Natural Gas. A rise to 3.20/3.30 looks possible within the current rise but thereafter a possible dip can be seen back towards 3.15. Only a sustained rise above 3.30 will be bullish in the longer run.

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
-0.58 …Previous 1.2

DATA LAST FRIDAY

23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
…Expectation -19 …Previous -18 …Actual -19

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
86.7 …Expectation 89.2 …Previous 88.4 …Actual 88.6

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations Index
85.9 …Expectation 86.7 …Previous 86.2 …Actual 88.5

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations Index
87.8 …Expectation 91.2 …Previous 90.7 …Actual 90.7

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
…Expectation -10.3 …Previous 16.4 …Actual -9.3