The US and EU Commission made a trade agreement with an unbalanced deal that slapped a headline 15% tariff on EU goods. The Dollar Index is rising within its 96-99 range and a confirmed break past 99 can take it towards 101. The Euro has fallen below 1.16 and can test 1.15-1.14 if the fall extends, EURINR is nearing the support at 100.50 which can be tested soon. EURJPY appears to have peaked at 173.90 and any fall below 171 can drag it further to 170-168. USDJPY and USDNCY are trading near the upper end of their ranges of 146-149 and 7.14-7.20 respectively. The Aussie is coming off within its 0.6650-0.645 range, while the Pound has slipped below 1.34 and failure to see a bounce back can drag it further to 1.32 or even lower. USDINR is currently trading at 86.7270 on the NDF. Overall, while above 86.60, a further rise to 86.85-87.00 is possible. US Case Schiller and US Consumer Confidence data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.632) rose sharply to 98.71 after the trade deal between EU and US was mutually agreed. Still a confirmed break past 99 will be needed to bring 101 into picture. Till then, the range of 96-99 can continue to hold.

EURUSD (1.1594) has slipped below 1.16 and failure to see an immediate bounce past 1.16 can drag it further to 1.15-1.14 in the coming sessions.

Similarly, EURINR (101.6049) is nearing interim support at 100.50 which can be tested soon. Thereafter, whether the fall extends to 100-99 or the cross attempts to rise back from 100.50 will have to be seen.

EURJPY (172.61) was expected to test 175-176 but it started coming off from 173.90 itself. Any fall below 171 can open the doors for 170-168 in the near term. The target of 175-176 is kept alive for now while the cross sustains above 171.

Dollar-Yen (148.445) is trading near the upper end of its 146-149 range. There is enough room in the charts to extend the ongoing rise towards 155in the medium term but a decisive break past 149-150 will be needed for it. Till then, the range of 146-149 can continue to hold.

USDCNY (7.1755) is gradually rising higher within its range 7.14-7.20. A confirmed break past 7.20 can take it higher to 7.25 as well. Overall, the view remains bullish above 7.15/14.

Aussie (0.6524) is nearing the support around 0.65 which can be tested soon. Overall, the pair is likely to trade within 0.6650-0.6450 region before a break happens on either side.

Pound (1.3356) in line with our lesser preferred view has slipped below 1.34. Now, while below 1.35/36, the pair can be vulnerable to extend the fall to 1.32 or even lower.

USDINR (86.7250) tested the low of 86.40 before turning higher. On the NDF it is currently trading higher and if the pair sustains above 86.60 then a test to 86.85-87.00 is possible in the coming sessions.

The US Treasury yields continue to remain stable. They can avoid a fall and rise further if they manage to sustain above their immediate support. The US Fed meeting outcome tomorrow is important to watch. While the rates are likely to be kept unchanged, any hint on the future rate path and the tariff impact will be much more important to be seen. The German yields have dipped. But the bias remains positive. The yields can rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI (06.33 GS 2035) is moving up within its broad range. The bias is positive to see a bullish breakout of this range eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.40%) and 30Yr (4.95%) Treasury yields remain stable. While above 4.35% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr), the bias is positive to see a rise to 4.55%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.15%-5.2% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.69%) and 30Yr (3.19%) yields have dipped slightly. But the bias remains bullish to see a rise to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) while above 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.15% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI 06.33 GS 2035 (6.37%) is moving up within its 6.3%-6.4% range. The bias is positive to breach 6.4% and see a rise to 6.5%.

Most indices look weak ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow, where the central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged. Dow has dipped but looks bullish above 44500, while the Dax can extend its fall to 23500-23000 if it fails to bounce back above 24000 immediately. Nifty fell sharply on heavy selling seen yesterday, but has support near 24600. A break below 24600 can take it further down towards the lower support at 24400. Nikkei and Shanghai can test 40500-40000 and 3550, respectively, before a bounce is seen later towards 42000 and 3600+.

The Dow (44837.56, -0.14%) surged initially to test 44947 before coming off to close lower. While above 44500, there is scope for an eventual rise towards 46000 in the medium term.

DAX (23970.36, -1.02%) has broken below our expected level of 24000. If the dip sustains for the next few sessions, the index my test 23500-23000 soon. An immediate bounce from current levels is needed to avoid further decline.

Nifty (24680.90, -0.63%) declined sharply on continued foreign fund outflows and heavy selling seen in some major stocks. Further decline from current levels can take the index down to the next support level near 24400.

Nikkei (40731.26., -0.65%) has fallen below 41000 as expected and could head towards 40500-40000 in the near term. Thereafter, a bounce may eventually occur.

Shanghai (3590.05, -0.22%) has dipped in line with our expectations of seeing a test of 3550 initially. However, it can rise slowly towards 3600+ in the medium term.

Metals and Natural Gas trade lower while Brent and WTI have moved up. Gold and Silver have crucial supports at $ 3300 and $ 38 above which the prices may have scope to move up; else can be vulnerable to decline towards $ 3200 and $ 37, respectively. Copper looks strongly bearish, and a decisive break below 5.6, if seen, can drag it down to 5.4-5.3. Brent and WTI have risen well on the easing of trade deal between the US-EU and ahead of the FOMC meeting yesterday where the interest rates are expected to remain unchanged favoring the Dollar. Brent and WTI have scope to rise towards $ 72-75 and $ 68-70, respectively, but the broader outlook remains bearish in the medium term.

Brent ($ 70.12) and WTI ($ 66.79) moved up on concerns of a tighter global oil supply after Trump announced that he would impose a new deadline of 10-12days for Russia to reach a truce with Ukraine before he increases sanctions on Russian exports. Brent needs to sustain above $ 70 to move up towards $ 72-75 region, while WTI can rise to test $ 68-70 region. But in the medium term, both prices can start to decline again.

Gold ($ 3312.70) has immediate support at $ 3300, above which there is scope for a rise to $ 3400-3450 in the coming days. Failure to hold above $ 3300 can take the price down to $ 3200. Watch price action near $ 3300 for now.

Silver ($ 38.30) has crucial near-term support at $ 38 and lower at $ 37, which if held, can take the price higher towards $ 39-40 in the coming days. Failure to hold above $ 37 would trigger a sharper decline in the medium term towards $ 36-35.

Copper ($ 5.6125) is declining sharply from resistance near 6. There is further room for decline towards 5.4-5.3, which can be seen on a break below 5.6. The overall view is bearish.

Natural Gas ($ 3.1850) had risen well over the last few sessions on a warmer weather expectation for central and eastern US for 4th to 8th August 2025 but the price tumbled yesterday as the weather forecasts cooled for the eastern half of US for 2nd to 6th Aug-25. Overall, there is a crucial resistance near $ 3.25/3.30 below which the price may decline towards $ 3.10-2.70 in the coming weeks.

13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
…Expectation 2.9 …Previous 3.4

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
…Expectation 95.9 …Previous 93.0

DATA LAST FRIDAY

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
-0.58 …Previous 1.2 …Actual 1.5