The US FOMC is scheduled today and even though the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, focus will be on any hints of rate cuts in the coming months. Dollar Index failed in its attempt to see a sustained rise past 99 and started declining from 99.14 itself. Currently, it is back within the 99-96 range but we retain our view of seeing a rise towards 101. The Euro and EURINR have upside capped at 1.1650-1.1700 and 102 respectively and while below these levels, the targets of 1.14 and 99 are kept alive. EURJPY, USDJPY and USDCNY are likely to consolidate within 171-174, 149-146 and 7.20-7.14 region in the near term before a break happens on either side. The Aussie and Pound have bounced a bit from their respective supports coming around 0.65 and 1.33. Overall, the range of 0.645-0.665 and 1.33-1.35 can persist in the near term. USDINR is currently trading at 87.0610 but faces an immediate resistance at 87.10. Need to see whether the resistance holds and pushes the pair to 86.50 or extends the rise further. US ADP Employment and US GDP data releases are also scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.782) rose to 99.14 but couldn’t hold above 99 and has slipped back into the 99–96 range. Overall, the bias remains positive for a potential rise towards 101 in the near term. A better clarity could be expected after the FOMC scheduled today.

EURUSD (1.1518) observed the low of 1.1518 before recovering a bit from there. Still, while below 1.1650-1.1700, the target of 1.14 is kept alive for now.

EURINR (100.6940) tested 100.08 yesterday and is currently attempting to rise back again. A crucial resistance is coming at 102, thereby suggesting limited upside. A break below 100 can take it to the deeper support coming at 99 before halting.

EURJPY (171.269) has bounced a bit from the support coming near the 171 region. The cross can consolidate between the 171-174 region for some time before a break is seen on either side. Any fall below 171 can open the doors for 170-168 as well.

The range of 149-146 remains intact within the Dollar-Yen (148.071) for now. There is enough room in the charts to extend the ongoing rise towards 155 in the medium term but a decisive break past 149-150 will be needed for it. Till then, the range of 149-146 can continue to hold.

USDCNY (7.1736) tested 7.1792 before cooling down a bit. The range of 7.20/18-7.14 is holding well for now. Only a confirmed break past 7.20 can take it higher to 7.25.

Aussie (0.6516) has held the support quite well and if sustained can rise within its 0.6450-0.6650 range which can persist for some time.

Pound (1.3362) has risen a bit from the interim support coming at 1.33. Even if the rise extends further, it can be limited to 1.35/36. Overall, a range of 1.33-1.35 is likely to hold in the near term before a break is seen.

USDINR (87.0610) yesterday observed the high of 86.9150 before closing slightly below it. On the NDF it is currently trading higher but an immediate resistance is evident near 87.10 level and while it holds, a fall to 86.50 can be witnessed. Only if an immediate break past 87.10 happens, can open the doors for 87.25 or higher levels. Watch price action closely.

The US Treasury yields have declined sharply. A further fall from here will negate our view of seeing a rise and in turn will drag them lower going forward. The US Fed meeting outcome tonight will need a watch. The central bank’s comment on the future rate path and the impact of tariffs will be much more important to hear today. The German yields continue to move up. The bullish view is intact, and there is room to rise more. The 10Yr GoI has come down. The outlook remains mixed and range bound.

The US 10Yr (4.32%) and 30Yr (4.86%) Treasury yields have declined below 4.35% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr). A break below 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) will negate the rise to 4.55%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.15%-5.2% (30Yr) that we were expecting. It can then drag the yields to 4.2%-4.1% (10Yr) and 4.75%-4.7% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.71%) and 30Yr (3.20%) yields continue to move up. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) on the upside. Support is at 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.15% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI 06.33 GS 2035 (6.3589%) has dipped. The outlook remains mixed, and range bound between 6.3% and 6.4%.

The Dow Jones trades in the negative as investors seem cautious before the FOMC meeting today, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged. Dow could continue to trade within 44500-45000 region for the near term. Dax and Nifty have risen well, recovering from their losses and preventing further declines to 23500/23000 and 24400 mentioned yesterday. Now, both indices can move up towards 24800 and 25000-25250, respectively. Nikkei is holding above crucial support at 40000, above which an eventual rise towards 41000-42000 remains intact. Shanghai has risen well and can soon target 3650-3700, while above 3550-3600.

The Dow (44632.99, -0.46%) fell sharply from 44883 ahead of the FOMC meeting today, where the interest rates are expected to remain unchanged. The trade deal between the US and China also indicated a potential extension of pause on higher China tariffs. Overall broad range of 44500-45000 holds for now, where an initial test of 44500 looks possible.

DAX (24217.37, +1.03%) has moved back to levels above 24000, preventing further fall to 23500-23000 mentioned yesterday. The range of 24000-24800 can hold for the near term.

Nifty (24821.10, +0.57%) managed to bounce back from 24598 yesterday, preventing a fall to 24400 mentioned yesterday. While above 24600, the index can slowly attempt to rise towards 25000. Near-term consolidation between 25250-24600 looks possible.

Nikkei (40625.49, -0.12%) has declined but has crucial support at 40000, above which the overall broader view remains bullish for the medium term towards 41000-42000.

Shanghai (3628.11, +051%) has risen sharply and could soon test 3650-3700 in the coming days. Overall view is bullish while above 3600.

Brent and WTI have surged on news of the EU’s $ 750 billion U.S. energy purchase and $ 600 billion investment, along with President Trump’s accelerated timeline for ending the Russia-Ukraine war, raising supply concerns. Gold continues to rise towards $ 3400–$ 3450, while Silver holds above support at $ 38 with potential to move towards $ 39–$ 40. Copper shows a temporary rebound but remains bearish towards $ 5.4–$ 5.3, and Natural Gas stays bearish, targeting $ 3.10–$ 2.70 unless it breaks above $ 3.25/30.

Brent ($ 72.66) and WTI ($ 69.23) have surged in line with our expectations following two significant news events. Firstly, according to a White House fact sheet released on Monday, the EU will purchase $ 750 billion worth of U.S. energy and invest an additional $ 600 billion in the United States, all by 2028. Secondly, President Trump has shortened the timeline for Russia to end the war with Ukraine from 50 days to less than two weeks, raising concerns that potential sanctions could disrupt supply. These sanctions could include secondary tariffs of 100% or more on Russia’s oil customers. Prices remain bullish, with targets of $ 75 and $ 72 respectively in the near term.

Gold ($ 3386.10) has rebounded as expected and opened higher today at $ 3383.10. It is likely to rise towards the previously mentioned levels of $ 3400–$ 3450 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 38.33) is hovering just above its immediate support at $ 38, with additional support at $ 37, which could be tested if the price breaks below $ 38. However, as long as $ 38 holds, we expect a bounce back towards $ 39–$ 40 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 5.6795) has rebounded contrary to our expectations, but the overall outlook remains bearish, with targets of $ 5.4–$ 5.3 in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.1540) rose slightly yesterday, but the outlook remains bearish towards $ 3.10–$ 2.70 in the coming weeks, as long as it stays below the resistance at $ 3.25/30.

1:30 07:00 AU CPI
0.0 …Expectation 2.2 …Previous 2.4

9:00 14:30 EU GDP
…Expectation 0.0 …Previous 0.6

9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
…Expectation 94.8 …Previous 94.0

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp
…Expectation 82.0 …Previous -33.0

12:30 18:00 US GDP
…Expectation 2.4 …Previous -0.5

14:00 19:30 BOC Meeting
…Expectation 2.75 …Previous 2.75

18:00 23:30 US FOMC Meeting
…Expectations <4.50 ...Previous <4.50 DATA LAST FRIDAY 13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
…Expectation 2.9 …Previous 3.4 …Actual 2.8

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
…Expectation 95.9 …Previous 93.0 …Actual 97.2