The FOMC kept the interest rates unchanged at 4.50%. The Dollar Index has finally risen past 99 and if sustained, can extend the rise to 101 in the coming sessions. The Euro and EURINR are looking bearish towards 1.14-1.13 and 99 respectively. EURJPY has slipped below 171 and failure to see a bounce back can drag it further to 170-168 as well. USDJPY and USDCNY are holding the respective ranges of 146-149 and 7.14-7.20. A confirmed break past 149/50 and 7.20 can bring the higher levels of 155 and 7.25 into picture. The Aussie is trading near the lower end of its 0.665-0.645 range. Need to see whether the range sustains or the fall gets extended to 0.640-0.635. The Pound needs to hold above 1.32 and rise further, else it can get dragged towards 1.30-1.28 in the medium term. USDINR is trading higher on the NDF. An immediate resistance is coming at 87.75, need to see whether it holds or not.. Watch out for the BOJ meeting, US Personal Income and US PCE data releases scheduled today.

Stronger GDP release at 3% and Jerome Powell stating that FED is in no rush to cut rates led Dollar Index (99.767) to rise sharply to the high of 99.98 so far. Now, while the index sustains above 98, a test to 101 can happen in the near term.

EURUSD (1.1427) is coming off in line with our bearish view and while below 1.16, a further test to 1.14-1.13 can happen soon before halting.

Similarly, EURINR (100.1819) has also turned lower from the high of 101.08 and a break below 100 if seen can drag it further to 99 as well. Overall, the upside can be limited to 102 for now.

EURJPY (170.24) has slipped below 171 and as cautioned, failure to see an immediate rise above current levels can make it vulnerable to fall towards deeper support coming around 168.

Dollar-Yen (148.89) had initially risen to 149.53 but could not sustain and is currently back within its range of 146-149. There is enough room in the charts to extend the ongoing rise towards 155 in the medium term but a decisive break past 149-150 will be needed for it. Till then, the range of 149-146 can continue to hold. The BOJ meeting is scheduled today, wherein the central bank is expected to keep the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%.

USDCNY (7.1919) is trading near the upper end of its 7.14-7.20 range. A confirmed break past 7.20 can bring 7.25 into picture. Till then the range can remain intact.

Aussie (0.6452) is oscillating around the lower end of its 0.6650-0.6450 range. Failure to sustain above it can drag the pair to 0.640-0.635 levels in the near term. Watch price action closely around current levels.

Pound (1.3258) was expected to trade within 1.33-1.35 region but contrary to that it slipped sharply to the low of 1.3223. The pair will have to sustain above 1.32 and bounce back higher, else any breach below 1.32 can open the doors for 1.30 or even 1.28 in the medium term.

USDINR (87.6650) had risen sharply to 87.51 onshore and 87.7980 offshore amid fears of a 25% tariff threat from Trump. A resistance is evident at 87.75 in the charts, need to see whether it holds and pushes the pair lower towards 87 levels or extends the rise to 88 and higher levels.

The US Treasury yields have risen back well. That keeps alive our view of seeing a rise. Only a break below the immediate support will bring them under pressure for more fall. The US Federal Reserve kept the rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. The central bank said that it would wait and watch the upcoming inflation data to gauge the impact of tariffs before taking their next step. The German yields remain stable. View remains bullish. The yields can rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI remains higher within its sideways range. We will have to wait for the range breakout. Our preference is to see a bullish breakout.

The US 10Yr (4.36%) and 30Yr (4.89%) Treasury yields have risen back well. While above 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) the chances of the rise to 4.55%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.15%-5.2% (30Yr) will still remain alive. Only a break below the above-mentioned levels will bring in the danger of the extended fall to 4.2%-4.1% (10Yr) and 4.75%-4.7% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.70%) and 30Yr (3.20%) yields remain stable. The view remains bullish. The yields can rise to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) while above 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.15% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI 06.33 GS 2035 (6.37%) has risen back and is holding higher within the 6.3%-6.4% range. We will have to wait for the range breakout to get clarity. We remain positive to see a bullish breakout.

The Dow Jones trades fell after the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged and signaled no decision made for a Sep-25 rate cut. The index can continue to decline towards 44000-43800 before attempting to move up in the medium term. Dax may continue to trade within the 24000-24800 range. Nifty closed above 24800 yesterday but can have scope for a decline to 24600-24400 while below 25000. Nikkei and Shanghai trade higher and could continue to rise while above 40000 and 3550 respectively, targeting 41000-42000 and 3700 in the medium term. BOJ is expected to keep rates unchanged today.

The Dow (44461.28, -0.38%) extended its fall after the FED kept rates unchanged and signaled that it has not made any decisions for Sep-25 rate cut, assessing the impact of trade tariffs on the broader inflation picture. The index, if sustains lower, could test 44000-43800 before rising back above 44500 in the coming days.

DAX (24262.22, +0.19%) has risen slightly and is expected to trade within the 24000-24800 range.

Nifty (24855.05, +0.14%) managed to close above 24800 yesterday but while below 25000, there can be scope for a decline to 24600 or lower again in the near term. A 25% tariff imposition by Trump on India could weigh on investor sentiment and keep the index lower for some more time. While below 25000, a fall to 24600-24400 is still on the radar.

Nikkei (40990.25, +0.83%) trades slightly higher ahead of the BOJ policy decision today where the central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged. If the index holds above support at 40000, it can soon rise back towards 41000-42000.

Shanghai (3595.42, -0.56%) declined sharply but may continue in its bull run towards resistance near 3700 in the medium term before facing any rejection from there.

Brent and WTI remain positive and may rise towards $ 75 and $ 72 respectively, while Gold stays bullish above $ 3300 with potential to target $ 3400–$ 3450. Silver is under pressure near $ 37, with further downside possible if it breaks lower. Copper has plunged nearly 20% on tariff news and remains bearish towards $ 4.20–$ 4.00. Natural gas is expected to decline further towards $ 2.70.

Brent ($ 72.31) remains positive and can target higher levels of $ 75 in the near term.

WTI ($ 69.93) also maintains a bullish outlook with potential to rise towards $ 72 shortly.

Gold ($ 3342.90) has pulled back from yesterday’s high of $ 3389.30. As long as it sustains above $ 3300, we retain our view of a rise towards $ 3400–$ 3450 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 36.99) has broken below $ 38 and fell sharply to test a low of $ 36.81 yesterday. It is currently trading near the previously mentioned support at $ 37. A sustained break below this level would confirm further bearishness and drag prices lower towards $ 36–$ 35. Otherwise, while it holds, a bounce back towards $ 37.5–$ 38.0 can be expected in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.4470) has crashed nearly 20% to a low of $ 4.50 yesterday after the U.S. clarified that its new 50% tariffs would only target semi-finished copper products, excluding raw and refined forms like cathodes and ores. This unexpected exemption erased the speculative premium on U.S. futures, triggered a sell-off, and raised concerns over oversupply in domestic markets. It remains bearish with scope to decline further towards $ 4.20–$ 4.00 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 2.99) has fallen as anticipated and can decline further towards $ 2.70 in the near term.

3:00 08:30 BOJ Meeting
…Expectation 0.50 …Previous 0.50

9:00 14:30 EU Unemp
…Expectation 6.3 …Previous 6.3

12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
…Expectation 0.2 …Previous -0.4

12:30 18:00 US PCE M/M
0.2 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.2

12:30 18:00 US Core PCE
0.2 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.2

1:30 07:00 AU CPI
0.0 …Expectation 2.2 …Previous 2.4 …Actual 2.1

9:00 14:30 EU GDP
…Expectation 0.0 …Previous 0.6 …Actual 0.1

9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
…Expectation 94.8 …Previous 94.0 …Actual 95.8

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp
…Expectation 82.0 …Previous -33.0 …Actual 104

12:30 18:00 US GDP
…Expectation 2.4 …Previous -0.5 …Actual 2.9

14:00 19:30 BOC Meeting
…Expectation 2.75 …Previous 2.75 …Actual

{18:00 23:30 US FOMC Meeting
…Expectations <4.50 ...Previous <4.50 ...Actual