Dollar Index has a scope to rise back towards 100-101 while it trades above 98/97. The Euro and EURINR have immediate resistance at 1.16 and 102 respectively. While it holds, both can trade within 1.18-1.14 and 102-100/99 regions respectively. EURJPY if slips below 170, can get dragged towards the deeper support at 168. USDJPY above 146 can target 149-150 in the near term. USDCNY is holding its 7.14-7.20 range for now. The Aussie and Pound have upside capped at 0.65/66 and 1.34 max. Eventually both the pairs are likely to turn lower in the medium term. USDINR had remained volatile since yesterday. On the NDF it is currently trading higher. Watch price action closely around current levels to see whether the resistance at 87.75-88.00 holds and pushes the pair lower or the rise extends further. IN Services PMI and the US Trade balance data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.787) remained stable yesterday. while the support near 98-97 holds it can head back towards 100-101 in the near term.

EURUSD (1.1563) has immediate resistance at 1.16, below which the pair can be vulnerable to fall towards 1.14. Overall, a narrow range of 1.16-1.14 and a broad range of 1.18-1.14 can hold for a while.

EURINR (101.7494) has risen well but faces resistance at 102. While it holds, we expect the cross to trade within 102-100/99 for some time.

EURJPY (170.06) is coming off and a break below 170 if seen, can take it to the deeper support at 168.

Dollar-Yen (147.10) tested 146.62 before bouncing a little. As long as the pair trades above 146, we retain our view of seeing a rise towards 149-150 in the near term. Only a break below 146 if seen can take it to 144 initially thereby delaying the rise.

USDCNY (7.1802) observed the low of 7.1764 but later recovered as well. The pair will have to rise past 7.20 to make the outlook bullish again. Till then, the range of 7.14-7.20 can continue to persist in the near term.

Aussie (0.6461) is holding well below the resistance coming at 0.65. Overall, the pair can consolidate between 0.65/66-0.64 region for some time before a break is seen.

Pound (1.3281) is slowly inching higher but the upside looks limited to 1.34 for now. Eventually it is likely to fall back towards 1.32/31 in the medium term as the overall trend appears bearish.

USDINR (87.98) initially tested 87.20 before rising back sharply over the demand for Dollars from the state run oil importers. Note, 87.75-88.00 is a crucial resistance zone, break past which will be needed to bring higher levels into picture. For now, while the resistance holds, we retain our view of seeing a fall towards 87.00-86.75 in the coming sessions.

The US Treasury yields declined further and are at a support. Failure to rise back immediately can see an extended fall going forward. The German yields have declined. But support is there to limit the downside and keep the broader bullish view intact. The 10Yr GoI has come down sharply and is now near the lower end of the range. If the range continues to hold well, then the yield can rise back within it.

The US 10Yr (4.20%) and 30Yr (4.79%) Treasury yields have come down further. Further fall from here can drag them down to 4.1%-4% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.6% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.62%) and 30Yr (3.13%) yields have come down. Support is at 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.10% (30Yr). We expect them to hold, and the yields can reverse higher again. That will keep intact our bullish view to see 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI 06.33 GS 2035 (6.3179%) has declined sharply within its range. For now, the 6.3%-6.4% range is intact and a bounce from near 6.3% can take it back up to 6.4%.

Slight recovery is seen across most equity indices as respective near term supports hold well. Dow and Dax have risen slightly. While above 43000 and 23500-23000 respectively, the indices could continue to rise slowly towards 44500 and 24000-24500. Nifty could open on stable note and could decline further today on concerns of a higher tariff threat by Trump overnight. A fall back towards 24400 cannot be ruled out. Nikkei and Shanghai are trading higher and while above supports at 40000 and 3550, a slow rise can be seen in the coming sessions towards 41000-42000 and 3600-3650 respectively.

The Dow (44173.64, +1.34%) has managed to rise after the sharp decline on Friday.
The dow has support at 43000 above which there could be scope for a slow rise towards 44500 or higher in the medium term. A broad range of 43000-45000 may hold for the next couple of weeks at least.

DAX (23757.69, +1.42%) moved up yesterday attempting to recover the sharp sell off seen earlier. Overall while above 23500-23000, the index can see a slow rise towards 24000-24500 eventually. However , a decline to 23000 if seen in the coming days would not be a surprise.

Nifty (24722 55, +0.64%) saw a decent rise yesterday but could open muted today on concerns of a higher tariff threat by Trump overnight. A decent decline if seen today won’t be surprising. A broad range of 24400-25000 may continue to hold with chances of retesting the lower end of the range in the near term.

Nikkei (40458.94, +0.42%) has bounced well as the 40000 support seems to be holding well for now. While the support holds in the near term, a slow rise towards 41000-42000 is possible.

Shanghai (3579.55, +0.40%) trades slightly higher today. While above immediate support near 3550, the index can slowly rise towards 3600 or higher eventually.

Brent and WTI are under pressure but may rebound if their immediate supports at $ 68 and $ 66 hold, respectively. Gold is bearish below $ 3450 with potential to drop to $ 3350, while a break above $ 3450 could target $ 3600–$ 3700. Silver has likely bottomed at $ 36.25 and may rise towards $ 38–$ 40. Copper remains bullish above $ 4.4, aiming for $ 4.6–$ 4.8 unless it breaks lower to $ 4.2. Natural Gas has fallen below $ 3.00 and may extend its decline towards $ 2.70.

Brent ($ 68.73) is falling, but as long as the immediate support at $ 68 holds, a rebound towards $ 72–$ 74 is possible in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 66.27) has declined. Immediate support is at $ 66, which, if it holds, could lead to a bounce towards $ 70–$ 72 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3435.0) is trading below its immediate resistance. While it remains below this level, a pullback towards $ 3350 is likely. However, a sustained break above $ 3450 would confirm bullishness, opening the way for higher levels of $ 3600–$ 3700.

Silver ($ 37.51) is moving up contrary to expectations. It appears to have formed a near-term bottom at the recent low of $ 36.25, and the price could now rise towards $ 38–$ 40 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.4640) is holding above $ 4.4. A break below this level would drag the price to $ 4.2; otherwise, while above it, a bounce back towards $ 4.6–$ 4.8 cannot be ruled out.

Natural Gas ($ 2.9370) has broken below $ 3.00 and tested a low of $ 2.8950 yesterday. A further decline towards $ 2.70 can be expected in the near term.

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
…Expectation 59.8 …Previous 60.4

12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectation -62.6 …Previous -71.5

DATA YESTERDAY

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
0.5 …Previous 0.1 …Actual 0.3

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
51.3 …Previous 49.6 …Actual 48.8