The Dollar Index has remained stable since the last few sessions. The view remains intact to see a rise towards 101, while above 98/97. The Euro and EURINR can trade within 1.18-1.14 and 102-100/99 regions respectively. EURJPY has limited upside to 172. The target of 168 is kept open for now. USDJPY above 146 can target 149-150 in the near term. USDCNY is holding its 7.14-7.20 range for now. The Aussie is consolidating within 0.64-0.65 region, while the Pound is heading towards the resistance at 1.34. USDINR tested 87.8825. Still, while below 88, a dip to 87.50 looks possible. Only a confirmed break past 88 if seen can bring higher levels into picture.

Dollar Index (98.787) is moving within the 100-98 region since the last few sessions. For now, we retain our view of seeing a rise towards 101 in the near term while the support near 98-97 holds.

EURUSD (1.1565) continues to trade below the resistance at 1.16. Overall, a narrow range of 1.16-1.14 and a broad range of 1.18-1.14 can hold for a while.

EURINR (101.5839) tested 101.84 before coming down later. Immediate resistance is coming at 102, below which a fall within the range of 102-100 can happen.

EURJPY (170.82) initially tested 169.82 before recovering from there. Even if the rise extends, the upside can be limited to 172 for now. The lower target of 168 is kept alive for now.

Dollar-Yen (147.70) is slowly inching higher and while above 146, a rise towards 149-150 can happen. Only a break below 146 if seen can take it to 144 initially thereby delaying the rise.

USDCNY (7.1886) will have to rise past 7.20 to make the outlook bullish again. Till then, the range of 7.14-7.20 can continue to persist in the near term.

Aussie (0.6482) is consolidating within the 0.65-0.64 region since the last few sessions. Broadly the range of 0.66-0.64 can continue to hold for a while before a break is seen.

Pound (1.3303) is nearing the resistance at 1.34 which can be tested soon. Thereafter, while the resistance holds, a fall towards 1.32/31 can happen in the medium term as the overall trend appears bearish.

USDINR (87.7960) tested 87.8825 before closing lower. While it remains below 88, there’s still a chance of a dip towards 87.50 in the near term. A sustained break above 88, if seen, would turn the pair bullish, opening up targets of 89–90.

The US Treasury yields remain lower but stable. Any bounce from here can be capped. The yields are likely to fall more in the coming days. The German yields are also lower and stable. They have support to limit the downside. We can expect them to reverse higher and keep the bullish view intact. The 10Yr GoI retains its sideways range and can rise within that. The RBI meeting outcome tomorrow will be an important event to watch.

The US 10Yr (4.22%) and 30Yr (4.79%) Treasury yields remain stable. Any rise from here will be capped at 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr). The yields are vulnerable for a fall to 4.1%-4% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.6% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.62%) and 30Yr (3.13%) yields remain stable. While above 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.10% (30Yr), the yields can reverse higher. It will keep the bullish view intact to see a rise to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI 06.33 GS 2035 (6.3321%) retains its 6.3%-6.4% range and can rise within it.

The Dow Jones dipped after a flat ISM services data yesterday that triggered concerns of a stagflation. While above support at 43000, Dow has scope for a slow rise towards 44500-45000. The Dax moved up yesterday and while above the support zone of 23000-23500, the index can slowly rise towards 24000-24500. Nifty declined as expected but while above supports at 24400-24600, Nifty can slowly rise towards 25000 in the medium term. Nikkei and Shanghai are trading higher and while above supports at 40000 and 3550, we may expect a rise towards 41000-42000 and 3650-3700 respectively.

The Dow (44111.74, -0.14%) lost gains seen on Monday after the ISM services flattened for July indicating concerns of a stagflation. Additionally the index also declined as Trump announced that the tariffs on semiconductors, chips and pharmaceuticals were coming up soon. Immediate support is seen at 43000 above which there could be scope for a slow rise towards 44500 or higher in the medium term. For now, we may assume fluctuations within a range of 43000-45000 for the next couple of weeks at least.

DAX (23846.07, +0.37%) moved up yesterday managing to close above 23500. The index can attempt to rise slowly towards 24000-24500 in the coming sessions while above the weekly support near 23000.

Nifty (24649.55, -0.30%) declined yesterday as expected and could continue to decline as the trade tariff threats on India for continued oil imports from Russia. Foreign portfolio outflows also seem to weigh on the index. But while above crucial supports near 24400 and 24600 on the charts, Nifty could have some scope for a bounce back in the medium term towards 25000 and higher.

Nikkei (40629.25, +0.20%) closed at 40549 yesterday, bouncing back after a brief dip below 40000. While above 40000, near term view is bullish for a rise towards 41000-42000.

Shanghai (3617.60, +0.96%) has regained upside momentum after breaking above 3600. While the rise persists, the index can slowly head towards 3650-3700 in the near term.

Brent and WTI are testing their immediate supports, and a sustained break below could turn them bearish towards $ 66–$ 64 and $ 64–$ 62 respectively. Gold remains under resistance with a possible pullback to $ 3350 unless it breaks above $ 3450, which would turn it bullish towards $ 3600–$ 3700. Silver continues to rise and may reach $ 38–$ 40, while Copper has dropped below $ 4.4 and could fall to $ 4.3–$ 4.2. Natural gas stays above $ 3.0 but retains a bearish outlook towards $ 2.8–$ 2.7.

Brent ($ 67.94) is attempting to break below its immediate support. A sustained break below this level would invalidate our earlier bullish outlook and could turn the price bearish, targeting $ 66–$ 64 in the near term.

WTI ($ 65.43) is also testing its immediate support. A sustained break below this level could push prices lower towards $ 64–$ 62 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3432.70) is trading below its immediate resistance. While it remains under this level, a pullback towards $ 3350 is likely. However, a sustained break above $ 3450 would confirm a bullish trend, opening the way for higher levels at $ 3600–$ 3700.

Silver ($ 37.82) has risen in line with our expectations and can climb further towards $ 38–$ 40 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.3865) has fallen below $ 4.4 and can now target $ 4.3–$ 4.2 on the downside.

Natural Gas ($ 3.01) has moved up again above $ 3.0, but the outlook remains bearish with potential declines towards $ 2.8–$ 2.7 in the coming weeks.

22:30 04:00 AU PMI
…Previous -29.3

9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
-0.2 …Expectation 0.4 …Previous -0.7

DATA YESTERDAY

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
…Expectation 59.8 …Previous 60.4 …Actual 60.5

12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectation -62.6 …Previous -71.5 …Actual -60.2