Donald Trump has announced an additional 25% tariff on India, bringing the total tariff rate to 50%. The Dollar Index is trading lower within the 100-98 range. Any break below 98 can drag it to 97-96. The Euro has risen past 1.16 and if sustained, can head towards 1.17/18 as well. EURINR and EURJPY face immediate resistance just above current levels. Need to see whether it holds or the rise gets extended towards 103-104 and 173-174 respectively. USDJPY needs to break past 148 to target 149-150, else a dip to 146/45 can happen initially. USDCNY is holding its 7.20-7.14 range for now. The Aussie has risen past 0;65 and if sustained, can head towards 0.66, while the Pound can rise towards the resistance at 1.34. USDINR might face upward pressure due to the tariffs imposed on India. A rise past 88 can take it to 88.30 as well. The targets of 87.50-87.25 are kept open for now.

Dollar Index (98.296) is trading near the lower end of its 100-98 range. If the fall extends below 98, it can make the DXY vulnerable to test 97-96, thereby delaying our anticipated rise towards 101. Watch price action closely.

EURUSD (1.1654) contrary to our view of seeing a fall towards 1.14, has risen past 1.16. If the pair sustains above 1.16, can head towards 1.18 in the coming sessions. Broadly, the range of 1.14-1.18 is likely to hold for a while.

EURINR (102.277) is hovering near the resistance around current levels. Need to see whether the rise extends further towards 103-104 or the range of 102-100 remains intact. A break past 102.50 can confirm the expected rise.

EURJPY (172.03) is nearing the resistance near current levels, a decisive break past which will be needed to bring 173/74 into picture. Else, while the resistance holds, the cross risks falling back to 170 or lower..

Dollar-Yen (147.50) needs to see a break past 148 to head towards 150, else it can initially dip to 146-145 before eventually resuming its rise towards 150 later.

USDCNY (7.1796) will have to rise past 7.20 to make the outlook bullish again. Till then, the range of 7.20-7.14 can continue to persist in the near term.

Aussie (0.6510) has risen past 0.65 and if sustained, can head towards 0.66 in the near term. Broadly the range of 0.64-0.66 can continue to hold for a while.

Pound (1.3354) is nearing the resistance at 1.340-1.3450 which can be tested soon. Thereafter, while the resistance holds, a fall towards 1.32/31 can happen in the medium term as the overall trend appears bearish.

USDINR (87.6940) tested 87.63 yesterday before turning higher. Trump’s 25% tariff on India may push the pair higher towards 88.00 or 88.30 as well. Need to see whether the RBI intervenes or not. The downside targets of 87.50-87.25 are kept open until further clarity.

The US Treasury yields are moving up. The upside is limited as the resistance ahead can cap the upside. The yields are likely to reverse lower and fall again. The German yields have risen back. That keeps intact our bullish view. The yields can rise more. The 10Yr GoI surged after the RBI kept the repo rates unchanged at 5.5%. The long-awaited bullish breakout of the range has happened. This now opens the door for further rise.

The US 10Yr (4.24%) and 30Yr (4.82%) Treasury yields have moved up. But the upside will be capped at 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr). The yields can reverse lower again and fall to 4.1%-4% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.6% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.65%) and 30Yr (3.17%) yields have risen back. Our bullish view is intact while above 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.10% (30Yr). The yields can rise to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.4162%) surged and has broken the 6.3%-6.4% range on the upside. That brings in our long-awaited rise to 6.45%-6.5% into the picture now, provided this break sustains.

The Dow Jones and Dax have risen and look bullish towards 44500-45000 and 24000-24500 respectively. Nifty continues to trade lower on trade tariff concerns. The index may fall further to 24400 after additional 50% tariff announcement by Trump yesterday. Nikkei and Shanghai are trading higher as expected and could soon test 42000 and 3700 respectively.

The Dow (44193.12, +0.18%) has managed to rise after a decent dip seen post the NFP data release last Friday. While above crucial support at 43000, the index looks bullish for a rise towards 44500-45000 in the coming days.

DAX (23924.36, +0.33%) closed higher yesterday. The index is headed towards 24000-24500 as expected. Near term looks bullish above 23500.

Nifty (24574.20, -0.31%) declined yesterday and could further extend towards 24400 as Trump threatened of an additional 25% tariff on India taking the figure to 50%. The trade tariff concerns are likely to weigh on the index for the near term. Watch price action at 24400 to see if it breaks or holds.

Nikkei (41037.51, +0.59%) is also rising well as expected, breaking well above 41000. The index could be headed towards 42000 in te next few sessions.

Shanghai (3637.53, +0.097%) continue to trade higher above 3600 and could soon test resistance near 3700 from where a correction looks possible.

Crude prices have broken below key support levels, indicating further downside towards $ 64 (Brent) and $ 62 (WTI) respectively. Gold is moving flat near resistance and needs a breakout to turn bullish, while Silver continues its upward move toward $ 39–$ 40. Copper is holding above $ 4.4, likely to trade between $ 4.3-$ 4.5 until a breakout. Natural gas is rising on hotter US weather, with potential to reach $ 3.15–$ 3.20 if it stays above $ 3.

Brent ($ 67.23) has broken below the immediate support and tested a low of $ 66.22, as anticipated. A further decline towards $ 64 can be expected in the near term.

WTI ($ 64.69) has also breached its support and tested a low of $ 63.64. A continued fall towards $ 62 is likely in the near term.

Gold ($ 3441.30) is trading flat near its immediate resistance. A sustained break above this level is required for a bullish move towards $ 3500–$ 3600. Otherwise, it remains vulnerable to a drop towards $ 3350.

Silver ($ 38.07) is rising in line with our expectations and may continue to climb towards $ 39–$ 40 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.4105) has rebounded back above $ 4.4. A narrow trading range between $ 4.3-$ 4.5 is likely in the near term until a breakout occurs on either side.

Natural Gas ($ 3.0880) has moved higher on hotter US weather forecasts. While it remains above $ 3, a further rise towards $ 3.15–$ 3.20 is possible in the near term.

0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
…Expectation 3.3 …Previous 2.2

11:00 16:30 BOE Mtg
…Expectation 4.00 …Previous 4.25

11:00 16:30 UK BOE Minutes
…Expectations 0-8-1 …Previous 0-3-6

DATA YESTERDAY

22:30 04:00 AU PMI
…Previous -29.3 …Actual -23.9

9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
-0.3 …Expectation 0.4 …Previous -0.3 …Actual 0.3