The Dollar Index is trading near the 98 level, any break below which if seen can drag it to 97-96 as well. The Euro has a scope to rise towards 1.18 while above 1.16. EURINR needs to rise past 102.50 to bring 103-104 into picture. EURJPY & USDJPY needs to break past 172.20 and 148 to head towards 174/75 and 150 respectively in the near term. USDCNY is trading higher within its 7.14-7.20 range. The Aussie has risen past 0;65 and if sustained, can head towards 0.66, while the Pound can soon test the resistance at 1.3450. USDINR is trading lower at the NDF. While below 88, a fall to 87.25 or lower is possible.

Dollar Index (98.14) continues to trade lower within its 100-98 range. Any breach below 98 can open the doors for 97-96, thereby delaying our anticipated rise towards 101.

EURUSD (1.1658) tested 1.17 before cooling down. While above 1.16, the target of 1.18 is kept alive. Broadly, the range of 1.14-1.18 can hold for a while.

EURINR (102.005) couldn’t sustain above 102.50, which is needed to target 103–104. A failure to bounce past 102 may drag it down to 101.00–100.50. Watch price action near current levels closely.

EURJPY (171.69) and Dollar-Yen (147.50) needs to see a rise past 172.20 and 148 to bring 173/74 &150 into picture. Else, the pairs risk falling back to 170 & 146-145 respectively.

USDCNY (7.1824) is trading higher within its 7.14-7.20 range. Still a decisive break on either side will be needed for further clarity.

Aussie (0.6520) looks stable above 0.65 and if sustained, can head towards 0.66 in the near term. Broadly the range of 0.64-0.66 can continue to hold for a while.

Pound (1.3442) is nearing the resistance at 1.3450 which can be tested soon. Thereafter, while the resistance holds, a fall towards 1.32/31 can happen in the medium term. Only a decisive break past 1.35 if seen can open the doors for 1.36/37, thereby negating our anticipated fall.

USDINR (87.4460) remained steady onshore, likely due to RBI intervention. Currently on the NDF it is trading lower and while the resistance near 88 holds, a test to 87.25 or lower can happen in the coming sessions.

The US Treasury yields remain lower. The bias is negative to see more fall. Resistance is there to cap the upside in case a rise happens. The German yields have dipped. But support is there to limit the downside and keep the bullish view intact. The yields are likely to rise back again. The 10Yr GoI has come back into its range again. Failure to rise back can keep it inside the range for some more time again. The RBI kept the repo rates unchanged at 5.5% in its monetary policy meeting yesterday.

The US 10Yr (4.25%) and 30Yr (4.82%) Treasury yields remain lower and stable. While below 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) the view is bearish for a fall to 4.1%-4% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.6% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.63%) and 30Yr (3.14%) yields have dipped again. Support at 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.10% (30Yr) is expected to hold and keep the bullish view intact. We can expect the yields to reverse higher again and move up to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.3861%) has come back into the 6.3%-6.4% range. Failure to rise back immediately can continue to keep the yield inside this range again.

Stock markets are mixed today. The Dow Jones has dipped while the Dax has risen in news of Trump and Putin to meet in the coming days. Dow and Dax can soon target 44500-45000 and 24000-24500 respectively in the near term. Nifty is likely to hold above 24400 and move up towards 24800-25000 in the coming days.  Nikkei and Shanghai may continue to rise towards near term resistances near 42000 and 3700 respectively. Nikkei could have scope to extend beyond 42000 on a confirmed upside break.

The Dow (43968.64, -0.51%) dipped slightly yesterday but we keep our target of 44500-45000 intact for the coming days.

DAX (24192.50,  +1.12%) rose on news that Trump and Putin would meet in the coming days. We keep our trade range of 24000-24500 intact for the coming days. A break above 24500 will open doors for 25000.

Nifty (24596.15, +0.089%) rise slightly yesterday on possibility of negotiations till the 27th August on trade deal with the US. Overall while above the support at 24400, the view is to see ranged trade between 24400-25000 region for some time.

Nikkei (41892.55, +2.03%) is trading sharply higher today about 2% up from yesterday’s close. A test of 42000 could be achieved soon but thereafter it has to be seen if the rise can continue higher towards 43000 or see a corrective dip. Watch price action near 42000.

Shanghai (3632.99, -0.18%) dipped slightly today but has scope to test resistance at 3700 before a sharp correction is seen later.

Brent and WTI are declining and may fall further towards $ 64–$ 62 and $ 62–$ 60 respectively. Gold has turned bullish after breaking resistance and could target $ 3550–$ 3600. Silver may rise towards $ 39–$ 40, while Copper is likely to remain range-bound between $ 4.3–$ 4.5. Natural Gas could test $ 3.2 before dropping below $ 3.

Brent ($ 66.44) has declined as anticipated due to the possibility of easing hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, as President Trump is scheduled to meet with Russian President Putin within the next few days to discuss ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. A further decline towards $ 64–$ 62 can occur in the near term.

WTI ($ 63.87) is falling as expected and can continue to drop towards $ 62–$ 60 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3488.20) broke above its immediate resistance and tested a high of $ 3483.60 before closing at the immediate resistance level of $ 3450, yesterday. Today, it has opened above this resistance and has so far seen a high of $ 3534. The price now appears bullish, as it seems to have broken out on the higher side of the symmetrical triangle pattern mentioned earlier. It can now target $ 3550–$ 3600 or even higher levels in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 38.54) tested a high of $ 38.76 yesterday as expected and can rise further towards $ 39–$ 40 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.4080) has dipped and may trade within a range of $ 4.3–$ 4.5 in the near term until a breakout occurs on either side.

Natural Gas ($ 3.0790) has dipped slightly but may test its immediate resistance at $ 3.2 in the near term before falling below $ 3.

0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
…Expectation 3.25 …Previous 1.6 …Actual 5.37

11:00 16:30 BOE Mtg
…Expectation 4.00 …Previous 4.25 …Actual 4.00

{11:00 16:30 UK BOE Minutes
…Expectations 0-8-1 …Previous 0-3-6 …Actual 0-5-4