The Dollar Index is trading lower within the 100-98 range. Deeper support coming at 97-96 levels. The Euro above 1.16 has a scope to rise towards 1.18. EURINR needs to rise past 102.50 to bring 103-104 into picture. EURJPY & USDJPY needs to break past 172.50 and 148 to head towards 173/74 and 150 respectively in the near term. USDCNY is trading higher within its 7.14-7.20 range. The Aussie can trade within 0.64-0.66 range. The Pound has risen 1.3450 and a confirmed break past 1.35 can take it higher to 1.36/37 as well. USDINR is holding the range of 88.00-87.50 for now, the target of 87.25 is kept open for now.

Dollar Index (98.14) if slips below 98, can get dragged towards 97-96. For now, the immediate range of 100-98 can continue to hold.

EURUSD (1.1662) appears stuck within the 1.16-1.17 region. The target of 1.18 is kept alive. Broadly, the range of 1.14-1.18 can hold for a while.

EURINR (102.1085) need to see a decisive break past 102.50 to bring 103–104 into picture. A failure to bounce past 102 may drag it down to 101.00–100.50. Watch price action near current levels closely.

EURJPY (172.15) and Dollar-Yen (147.50) needs to see a rise past 172.50 and 148 to head towards 173/74 &150. Else, the pairs risk falling back to 170 & 146-145 respectively.

USDCNY (7.1824) continues to trade higher within its 7.14-7.20 range. Still a decisive break on either side will be needed for further clarity.

Aussie (0.6521) has a scope to test 0.66 while it trades above 0.65. Overall, the range of 0.64-0.66 can continue to hold for a while.

Pound (1.3455) tested the target of 1.345. Now, the pair will have to sustain above current levels and rise past 1.35 to head towards 1.36/37 in the near term. Failure to do so can drag it back towards 1.32. Watch price action closely.

USDINR (87.4950) on the NDF is trading near the lower end of its 88.00-87.50 range. If the spot opens below 87.50 in the onshore markets, then our target of 87.25 can get tested. On the upside, a rise past 88 will be needed to rise towards 88.30.

The US Treasury yields are moving up. There is limited room to rise from here as the resistance ahead can cap the upside. We can expect the yields to reverse lower again and fall going forward. The US CPI data release tomorrow will be important to watch. The German yields have risen sharply. The bullish view is intact. The yields can rise more. The 10Yr GoI is oscillating around the range top. The bias is positive to see the yields rising more in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.28%) and 30Yr (4.85%) Treasury yields have moved up. Resistance at 4.3%-4.35% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr) can cap the upside. We expect the yields to reverse lower and fall to 4.1%-4% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.6% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.69%) and 30Yr (3.2%) yields have risen back sharply. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) on the upside. The support at 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.10% (30Yr) are holding well.

The 10Yr GoI (6.4121%) is oscillating around 6.4%. While above 6.35%, the bias is positive to see a rise to 6.5%.

The Dow has moved up on Friday and could rise towards 44500-45000 eventually, while downside can be limited to 43000 while the Dax has dipped with immediate resistance holding near 24260. A narrow trade between 24260 and 23500 can be possible in the near term. Trade tariff concerns may continue to weigh on the Indian markets, which could possibly push down Nifty towards 24000-23800 while below 24400. A bounce back above 24400 will be needed to prevent the said fall and instill some hopes of a rebound. Nikkei and Shanghai may continue to rise, targeting 43000 and 3700 in the near term.

The Dow (44175.61, +0.47%) rose on Friday to close higher. Sustained trade above 44000 can take the index towards 44500-45000 eventually. The downside can be limited to 43500-43000 in the near term.

DAX (24162.86, -0.12%) has dipped slightly while immediate resistance seems to be holding near 24260. A narrow range of 23500-24260 and a broader range of 23000-25000 may hold for the next couple of weeks.

Nifty (24363.30, -0.95%) broke below our expected support at 24400 last week. While the trade tariff concerns weigh on the Indian markets, the index may extend its fall to 24000-23800. A recovery back to levels above 24400 in the next few sessions could instill some hope for a rebound.

Nikkei (41820.48, +1.85%) has been rising sharply over the last few sessions and could extend towards 43000 soon.

Shanghai (3635.72, +0.016%) is also rising well and could extend to 3700 in the coming days.

Brent and WTI are both declining as expected, with further decline towards $ 64–$ 62 and $ 62–$ 60 respectively. Gold’s recent breakout above $ 3,500 appears false, and it could fall towards $ 3,350–$ 3,300 unless it regains bullish momentum. Silver may drop further if it breaks below $ 38, while Copper remains range-bound between $ 4.30–$ 4.50. Natural Gas has reversed earlier than anticipated and could decline towards $ 2.80.

Brent ($ 66.23) is declining as expected and may fall further towards $ 64–$ 62 in the near term.

WTI ($ 63.46) is also declining as expected and may continue to drop towards $ 62–$ 60 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,442.20) tested a high of $ 3,534.10 on Friday but has since reversed sharply to $ 3,491.30, contrary to our expectations. The break above the resistance appears to have been a false one, as the price opened further lower at $ 3,458.10. A sustained break above $ 3,500 is needed to maintain bullish momentum towards $ 3,600 and above, otherwise, it could break below $ 3,400 and fall to $ 3,350–$ 3,300.

Silver ($ 38.29) tested a high of $ 38.88 on Friday and has since reversed to current levels. A break below $ 38 could push it further down to $ 37.50–$ 37.00.

Copper ($ 4.4760) has risen to the upper end of the mentioned range and may continue trading between $ 4.30-$ 4.50 in the near term until a breakout occurs on either side.

Natural Gas ($ 2.9050) reversed earlier than expected, falling to $ 2.99 on Friday. It opened further lower at $ 2.89 and may decline further towards $ 2.80.

1:30 07:00 CN CPI (YoY)
…Expectation -0.1 …Previous 0.1

1:30 07:00 CN PPI
…Expectation -3.2 …Previous -3.6

DATA LAST FRIDAY

{12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
…Expectations 15.30 …Previous 83.10