The Dollar Index and Euro are holding well in their respective ranges of 100-98 and 1.17-1.16. EURINR can fall towards 101.50-101.00 in the near term. EURJPY & USDJPY have the scope to head towards 173/74 and 150 respectively in the coming sessions. USDCNY is stuck within 7.1750-7.1900. The Aussie is coming off but overall, it can trade within 0.66-0.67 region for some time. The Pound has also turned lower and while below 1.35, it can be vulnerable to fall back towards 1.32 in the near term. USDINR has risen a bit and while above 87.50, a further rise within the 87.50-88.00 range is possible. The RBA meeting and the US CPI data release is scheduled today.
Dollar Index (98.477) closed above 98 for the day. The immediate range of 98-100 can continue to hold before a decisive break is seen on either side. The downside can be limited to 97/96 max.
EURUSD (1.1619) is trading lower within its 1.17-1.16 region. A decisive break below 1.16 if seen can negate our anticipated rise to 1.18 and drag it lower to 1.15-1.14 in the coming sessions. Watch price action closely.
EURINR (101.8860) turned lower from 102.2350 itself. A break past 102.50 looks less likely at the moment. Chances are that the cross might fall towards 101.50-101.00 in the near term.
EURJPY (172.31) can attempt to rise back towards 174 in the coming sessions while above 171. Meanwhile, Dollar-Yen (148.32) has risen past 148 and can head towards 150-151 if the rise sustains.
USDCNY (7.1863) appears to be stuck within the 7.1750-7.1900 region since the last few sessions. Broadly a decisive break on either side of its 7.14-7.20 range will be needed to determine where the pair might be headed.
Aussie (0.6517) failed to sustain its rise past 0.65 and started coming off from 0.6528 itself. Overall, a range of 0.6600-0.6450/64 is likely to persist in the near term.
Pound (1.3431) seems to be holding well below 1.35 as it tested 1.3476 before coming down. The Pound will have to see a rise past 1.35 to head towards 136/37. Else, the pair could be vulnerable to fall back towards 1.32 in the coming sessions.
USDINR (87.65) tested 87.48 before moving higher. While above 87.50, a further rise to 87.75-88.00 is possible. Overall, the range of 87.50-88.00 is likely to hold for the next few sessions.
The US Treasury yields remain stable. The upside is limited from here. We expect the yields to reverse lower after testing their upcoming resistance. The US CPI data release will need a close watch. A high inflation number will be positive for the yields. The German yields remain higher and keeps the bullish view intact. They can rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI has risen well. The outlook is bullish, and the yields can rise further.
The US 10Yr (4.28%) and 30Yr (4.85%) Treasury yields remain higher but stable. Upside can be capped at 4.3%-4.35% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr). The yields can reverse lower again and fall to 4.1%-4% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.6% (30Yr).
The German 10Yr (2.69%) and 30Yr (3.22%) yields sustain higher. Bullish view is intact to see 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) on the upside while above 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.10% (30Yr).
The 10Yr GoI (6.43978%) has risen well above 6.4%. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing a rise to 6.5%. The price action thereafter will need a close watch.
The Dow and Dax have dipped slightly yesterday ahead of the US CPI data release today where markets expect the inflation to accelerate amid the ongoing tariff concerns, Both indices can trade within a broad range of 43000-44500 and 23500-25000 respectively. Nifty recovered well yesterday but watch piece action near resistances near 24650 and 24800-24850 region for any near-term rejection. Nikkei and Shanghai look bullish towards 43000 and 3700 respectively.
The Dow (43975.09, -0.45%) dipped yesterday ahead of the US CPI data release today. While above 43500-43000, the index can target 44500-45000 eventually.
DAX (24081.34, -0.34%) has dipped further yesterday and the index could test 24000-23500 in the coming days before rebounding higher eventually.
Nifty (24585.05, +0.91%) recovered well yesterday, closing above the crucial 24400 level. But we would be cautious around 24650 which could be an initial resistance and higher near 24800-24850 which is an upper resistance. While these two near term resistances hold, Nifty does not look very bullish at the moment.
Nikkei (42774.90, +2.30%) is also rising as expected and could soon head towards 43000.
Shanghai (3661.45, +0.39%) is rising as expected and can test 3700 soon before facing any rejection from there.
Brent and WTI have seen slight rebounds but remain biased for declines towards $ 64–$ 62 and $ 62–$ 60 respectively. Gold and Silver are likely to fall further towards $ 3,350 and $ 37.00. Copper is expected to trade in the $ 4.50–$ 4.30 range, and Natural gas may drop to $ 2.85–$ 2.80 despite a recent rise to $ 3.00.
Brent ($ 66.70) has risen slightly, contrary to our expectations, but the outlook remains biased towards a fall to $ 64–$ 62 in the near term.
WTI ($ 64.02) has bounced back, but the outlook remains intact for a decline to $ 62–$ 60 in the near term.
Gold ($ 3,404.20) fell sharply to test a low of $ 3,393.00 yesterday and may decline further towards $ 3,350.00 in the near term.
Silver ($ 37.83) broke below $ 38.00 as expected and tested a low of $ 37.62 yesterday. A further fall towards $ 37.50–$ 37.00 looks likely in the near term while it sustains below $ 38.00.
Copper ($ 4.4640) can trade within a range of $ 4.50–$ 4.30 in the near term until a breakout occurs on either side.
Natural Gas ($ 2.9750) rose to test a high of $ 3.00 yesterday, but the view remains the same for a decline towards $ 2.85–$ 2.80 in the near term.
4:30 10:00 RBA Meeting
…Expectation 3.60 …Previous 3.85
6:00 11:30 UK Unemp
4.8 …Expectation 4.7 …Previous 4.7
12:00 17:30 IN CPI
2.48 …Expectation 1.76 …Previous 2.10
12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
…Expectation 0.2 …Previous 0.3
12:30 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
0.1 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.2
DATA Yesterday
1:30 07:00 CN CPI (YoY)
…Expectation -0.1 …Previous 0.1 …Actual 0.0
1:30 07:00 CN PPI
…Expectation -3.2 …Previous -3.6 …Actual -3.6