The Dollar Index can head towards 100.50 in the medium term, while it stays above 97/96. EURUSD and EURINR can trade within 1.18-1.14 and 102.50-101.50 region respectively while the immediate resistance at 1.1750 and 102.50 holds. EURJPY & USDJPY can rise towards 174/75 and 150/51 respectively on a confirmed break past 173 and 148. USDCNY is likely to trade within 7.16-7.20 region for a while. The Aussie continues to hold the 0.645-0.655 range for now. Even if the Pound rises further, it can limit the upside to 1.3650 max. USDINR has a scope to fall towards 87.00-86.50 in the coming weeks before eventually bouncing back again.

Dollar Index (97.92) has interim support just below current levels and deeper at 97, thereby suggesting limited downside. Eventually, the index is likely to rally towards 100.00-100.50 in the medium term as the overall view appears bullish above 97.

EURUSD (1.1696) faces an immediate resistance at 1.1750 and while it holds, the pair can be vulnerable to fall back towards 1.16 or lower. Broadly, the range of 1.18-1.14 can persist for some time.

Similarly, EURINR (102.3265) can trade within 102.50-101.50/101 while the resistance at 102.50 holds.

EURJPY (172.473) and Dollar-Yen (147.44) needs to see a decisive break past 173 and 148 respectively to head towards 174-175 and 150-151 in the near term. Immediate downside can be limited to 171/70 and 146/45 max.

USDCNY (7.1804) limited the downside to 7.1673 and has currently recovered well from there. The range of 7.17/16-7.20 is likely to remain intact in the near term.

A range of 0.645-0.665 in Aussie (0.6519) is likely to hold for a while before a break happens on either side.

Pound (1.3556) looks stable above 1.35 for now. Even if the rise extends further, the upside can be capped at 1.3600-1.3650. While the resistance around 1.3650 holds, a fall back towards 1.34 looks likely.

USDINR (87.4880) has been unable to see follow through rise past 87.75 and while below it, a fall towards 87.00-86.50 can happen in the coming weeks before eventually bouncing back later.

The US Treasury yields have risen well last week. They have room to rise further this week and test their resistance. The German yields have surged on Friday and are now at their key resistance. Failure to breach this resistance decisively can drag them down. The price action in the next couple of days will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI has been very volatile. They can remain higher in a range for some time.

The US 10Yr (4.31%) and 30Yr (4.91%) Treasury yields have risen well last week. The yields can rise further towards 4.4%-4.45% (10Yr) and 5%-5.05% (30Yr) this week while above 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.79%) and 30Yr (3.35%) yields have surged and come up to their resistance at 2.8% and 3.35% respectively. A strong follow-through rise from here is needed to take them up to 2.95%-3% (10Yr) and 3.5% (30Yr). Else they can fall back to 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.25% (30Yr) and lower.

The 10Yr GoI (6.40%) has been volatile between 6.4% and 6.5%. Strong resistance is in the broad 6.5%-6.6% region which can cap the upside. While that holds, the yield is likely to come down towards 6.3%-6.2% over the medium term. For now, 6.4%-6.6% can be the trading range for some time.

The Dow rallied well on Friday to test resistance near 45203, but closed lower at 44946. If resistance holds, we may expect a decline to 44500-44000 in the coming days; else the index will have to sustain a rise above 45000-45200 for bullishness to continue. Dax could have scope for a decline to 24000-23500 while below resistance at 25000-24800. A broad range of 25000-23500 continues to hold. Nifty may test 24800-24850 within a range of 24850-24400. Further bullishness will set in on a break above 24850. Nikkei and Shanghai look bullish towards 44000 and 3750 in the near term.

The Dow (44946.12, +0.078%) rallied to test the daily resistance at 45203.52 on Friday before closing lower at 44946. If the resistance holds, we may expect the index to dip back towards 44500-44000 in the coming days. A sustained rise above 45000-45200 will be needed to negate the said decline and continue to rally targeting 46000 in the medium term. For now, view is bearish while below 45200-45000.

DAX (24359.30, -0.075%) had tested 24536 on Friday before dipping from there. While below the resistance near 25000-24800, view could be bearish for a decline towards 24000-23500 eventually. A broad sideways range of 25000-23500 may continue to hold till a decisive breakout is seen on either side.

Nifty (24631.30, +0.049%) may test 24800-24850 in the very near term. An overall sideways range of 24850-24400 could hold for a few days.

Nikkei (43578.88, +0.46%) has been rising sharply since the last few sessions and could be on a rally towards 44000. A sustained break above 44000 would open doors for 46000 in the next few weeks. Overall view is bullish.

Shanghai (3712.50, +0.43%) has also broken well above 3700 and sustains higher. A continued trade above 3700, if seen can take it towards 3750 in the coming days. Failure to hold above 3700 can drag it down to 3650 before extending rise in the longer run.

Crude prices fell with Brent testing support at $ 65 and WTI near $ 62, both holding chances of a short-term bounce unless supports break, which could open deeper downside. Gold slipped below $ 3,400 and can decline towards $ 3,350 support, while Silver remains rangebound between $ 38.5–$ 37 awaiting a breakout. Copper continues to trade within $ 4.50–$ 4.30, and Natural Gas rebounded sharply but needs to hold above $ 2.8 to avoid a fall back towards $ 2.75–$ 2.70.

Brent ($ 65.58) has fallen after Trump stated that he has no immediate plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil. Immediate support is seen near $ 65, and while that holds, we might see a bounce back in the near term towards $ 68–$ 70. Alternatively, a sustained break below $ 65 would drag the price down to $ 64–$ 62.

WTI ($ 61.97) has fallen in line with our expectations. Immediate support is coming near current levels, and while this holds, we might see a bounce back towards $ 64–$ 66 in the near term. Alternatively, a sustained break below this level would open up lower levels of $ 60–$ 58. We will have to wait and watch.

Gold ($ 3,386.20) contrary to our expectations, has broken below $ 3,400 and can decline further towards its immediate support at $ 3,350. Thereafter, if the support holds, we can see a bounce back in the following weeks.

Silver ($ 38.11) has fallen back below its immediate resistance at $ 38.5. A sustained break above this level is needed for it to move higher. Else, it can trade within a narrow range of $ 38.5–$ 37.0 for a few sessions before a breakout takes place.

Copper ($ 4.4895) has fallen back within the mentioned range of $ 4.50–$ 4.30 and can continue to trade within this range for some time until a breakout on either side takes place.

Natural Gas ($ 2.8710) has bounced back sharply to a high of $ 2.9660 on Friday. It has to break below $ 2.8 to see a decline towards our earlier mentioned levels of $ 2.75–$ 2.70. Else, it can continue to move up towards $ 3.0–$ 3.1.

23:50 05:20 JP GDP
…Expectations 0.1% …Previous 0.1% …Actual 0.3%

2:00 07:30 CN Retail Sales
…Expectations 4.6 …Previous 4.8 …Actual 3.7

2:00 07:30 CN IIP (YoY)
…Expectations 6.0 …Previous 6.8 …Actual 5.7

12:30 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
0.6 …Expectations 0.5 …Previous 0.9 …Actual 0.7

13:15 18:45 US Industrial Production
0.2 …Expectations 0.0 …Previous 0.4 …Actual -0.1

13:15 18:45 US Capacity Utilization
77.8 …Expectations 77.6 …Previous 77.7 …Actual 77.5

{13:00 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
…Previous 266.8 …Actual 150.8