The Dollar Index is holding below key resistance at 99 with scope for a pullback towards 98–97 before targeting 100–101, while EURUSD stays rangebound between 1.16–1.18 unless a break below 1.16 extends losses to 1.15–1.14. EURINR is likely to bounce within 101–102.50, and EURJPY must clear 173 to strengthen towards 174–175 or else risk slipping to 170–169. Dollar-Yen looks bullish towards 150–151, USDCNY faces resistance at 7.19 with potential to fall back to 7.16, and Aussie could test 0.64 before rebounding to 0.6450–0.65. The Pound is supported above 1.34 with room for a rise to 1.3450–1.35, while USDINR remains capped below 87.50 and stays vulnerable for a decline towards 86.75–86.50.

Dollar Index (98.28) has risen in line with expectations but faces a crucial resistance near 99 on the 3-Day and Weekly Candle charts. While this holds, a pullback towards 98–97 is possible before a break higher towards 100–101.

EURUSD (1.1606) has fallen to the lower end of the mentioned range as expected. While 1.16 holds, the 1.16–1.18 range can sustain for some time. Alternatively, a sustained break below 1.16 would extend the bearishness towards 1.15–1.14.

EURINR (101.34) tested a low of 101.13 yesterday in line with expectations. While support near 101 holds, a bounce back is likely in the near term with the pair expected to trade within 101–102.50 for some time.

EURJPY (172.41) has risen but needs to break above 173 to resume the long-term bullish trend towards 174–175. Else, it remains vulnerable to a fall towards 170–169.

Dollar-Yen (148.48) has risen above 148 and tested a high of 148.40 yesterday in line with expectations. It looks poised to rise towards 150–151 in the coming weeks.

USDCNY (7.1828) tested a low of 7.1685 before bouncing back to close higher at 7.1796 yesterday. Immediate resistance is seen near 7.19, and while this holds, the view remains intact for a decline towards 7.16 in the coming weeks.

Aussie (0.6424) has fallen in line with expectations and can test 0.64 in the near term. If this level holds, a bounce back towards 0.6450–0.65 is possible thereafter.

Pound (1.3413) tested a low of 1.3405 yesterday in line with expectations. While 1.34 holds, a bounce back towards 1.3450–1.35 can be seen in the coming weeks. Alternatively, a sustained break below 1.34 would turn the pair further bearish towards 1.3350–1.33.

USDINR (87.2650) bounced back sharply to 87.27 from a low of 86.92 as aggressive dollar buying by oil importers late in the session pushed the pair higher, though persistent dollar sales by foreign banks helped cap the rise. Immediate resistance is near 87.50, and while this holds, the view for a fall towards 86.75–86.50 in the coming weeks remains intact.

The US Treasury yields have bounced back. The support zone is holding well as expected. That keeps intact our view of seeing a rise. The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole meeting today will be important to watch. The German yields have bounced back but are unlikely to sustain. They can fall back and test their support. The 10Yr GoI has risen back again. There is room to rise in the near term. But strong resistance is there to cap the upside and take it lower again.

The US 10Yr (4.32%) and 30Yr (4.92%) Treasury yields have bounced back. The 4.3%-4.25% (10Yr) and 4.9%-4.85% (30Yr) support zone is holding well as expected. That keeps alive our view of seeing a rise back to 4.45%-5% (10Yr), 5.05%-5.1% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.75%) and 30Yr (3.32%) yields have bounced back but unlikely to sustain. A test of 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.25% (30Yr) is still possible. Also, failure to bounce back from there can see an extended fall to 2.65% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr)

The 10Yr GoI (6.5278%) has risen back above 6.5% again. That keeps the door open to test 6.6% on the upside. We reiterate that 6.6% could be the maximum upside from where the yield can reverse lower again. The yield can oscillate in the 6.4%-6.6% range for some time before breaking lower eventually.

The Dow Jones could trade below 45200-45000 and unless a strong follow-through rise is seen above the mentioned zone, we may expect a fall to 44500-44100 initially. Dax continues to trade within 24500-23500, both being crucial resistance and support levels. Nifty needs to breach 25250 in the near term; else, a decline back towards 24700 can be seen. Nikkei could decline towards 42000-41000 initially before rising to 44000-46000 over the medium term. Shanghai looks strong towards 3800-4000. 4000 is a strong resistance.

The Dow (44785.50, -0.34%) has near term resistance near 45450 and while that holds, the index has scope to fall towards 44500-44100 in the coming days.

DAX (24293.34, +0.067%) is likely to consolidate between 24500-23500 for the near term unless a decisive breakout is seen on either side.

Nifty (25083.75, +0.13%) has risen well yesterday but needs to breach 25,150-25,250 to move higher towards 25400-25600. Else, while below 25250, there could be one more chance of a possible dip to 24800-24700.

Nikkei (42628.80, +0.044%) has scope to dip to 42000 or even lower to 41000 before resuming the upmove to target 44000-46000 in the medium term.

Shanghai (3775.66, +0.12%) has risen today, continuing it’s upward rally. It can target 3800-4000 over the medium term. Note that 4000 is a very strong resistance where the index can pause its current rally.

Crude prices are gaining as a sharp fall in US crude and gasoline inventories along with strong global manufacturing data boosts sentiment, with Brent eyeing $ 68–69 and WTI $ 64–65 before turning lower again. Gold looks set to rise towards $ 3,400–3,450 while above $ 3,350, and Silver must hold above $ 38 to extend its move towards $ 39–40. Copper continues to trade in the $ 4.30–4.50 range awaiting a breakout, while Natural gas has rebounded from $ 2.70 support and can head towards $ 2.85–2.90.

Brent ($ 67.48) has risen in line with our expectations after weekly EIA crude and gasoline inventories fell more than expected. Strength in global manufacturing activity is also supportive for energy demand and crude prices. A further rise towards $ 68–$ 69 can be seen in the near term before resuming its bearish trend.

WTI ($ 63.37) rose to a high of $ 63.67 in line with our expectation and can move higher towards $ 64–$ 65 in the near term before turning lower again.

Gold ($ 3,380.30) can rise towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450 in the near term while it holds above $ 3,350.

Silver ($ 38.10) is trading above $ 38 and must sustain this level to remain bullish towards $ 39–$ 40 in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.4450) can continue to trade within the range of $ 4.50–$ 4.30 until a breakout occurs on either side.

Natural Gas ($ 2.8110) has bounced back from support near $ 2.70 and can move higher towards $ 2.85–$ 2.90 in the coming sessions.

23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
…Expectation -19 …Previous -19

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
2.9 …Expectation 3.0 …Previous 3.2

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

12:30 18:00 US Philifed Index
1.2 …Expectation 5.9 …Previous 15.9 …Actual -0.3

14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
3953 …Expectation 3920 …Previous 3930 …Actual