The Dollar Index failed to hold its gains after news of Trump firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The downside can be limited to 97 and until further clarity the target of 99.00-99.50 is kept alive. EURUSD and EURINR continue to stay rangebound between 1.18–1.16 and 103.00-101.50. EURJPY is trading lower within its 173-171 range. Dollar-Yen is also coming off and a confirmed break below 147 if seen can drag it further to 145 initially before bouncing back later. USDCNY can test 7.14 soon. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.655-0.645 and 1.36-1.34/33 range respectively. USDINR had risen well yesterday and is currently trading higher on the NDF as well. The pair could extend its up move towards 87.87–88.00 in the near term. US Durable goods, US Case Schiller & US Consumer Confidence data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.262) had risen to the high of 98.54 but faded the gains later as the announcement came out that Donald Trump is removing FED Governor Lisa Cook. Even if it dips further, the downside can be limited to 97. The target of 99.00-99.50 is kept open for now.

EURUSD (1.1642) is likely to fall towards 1.15 in the near term. Broady, the range of 1.18-1.16/15 can hold for a while.

EURINR (101.9715) is attempting to rise back but the upside looks capped at 103. While the resistance at 103 holds, a range of 103.00-101.50 is likely to hold in the near term.

EURJPY (171.53) is trading near the lower end of its 173-171 range. Need to see whether the range remains intact or the fall gets extended towards 170-169.

Dollar-Yen (147.28) tested 148 before declining a bit. A confirmed break below 147 if seen can take it towards the deeper support at 145, which in turn can delay the rise to 150-151.

USDCNY (7.1533) is falling in line with our view and can soon test 7.14 as well. Thereafter, whether the support holds and the pair bounces back again or extends the fall is uncertain at the moment. Wait and watch for now.

Aussie (0.6482) can trade within the range of 0.655-0.640 for some time.

Pound (1.3475) can fall back towards 1.34/33 in the coming sessions while the resistance at 1.36 holds.

USDINR (87.5970) yesterday broke above resistance to a high of 87.6125. With momentum intact, it could rise towards 87.75–88.00, negating our earlier view of a drop to 87.00–86.90.

The US Treasury yields have bounced back thereby reducing the chances of more fall. Broadly it looks like the yields can oscillate in a range. Within the range there is limited room on the downside which keeps the chances high for the yields to rise back again. The German yields have bounced back. The support is holding well. If this sustains, the yields can rise further in the coming days. The 10Yr has risen and come up to its crucial resistance. We expect the resistance to hold and the 10Yr GoI to fall back.

The US 10Yr (4.29%) and 30Yr (4.92%) Treasury has bounced back there by reducing the chances of seeing 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) on the downside. Broadly, 4.2%-4.5%/4.6% (10Yr) and 4.8%-5.1%/5.2% (30Yr) seems to be the trading range within which the yields are likely to oscillate for some time now.

The German 10Yr (2.75%) and 30Yr (3.33%) yields have bounced back. The support at 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.25% (30Yr) seems to be holding well. While that holds, a rise to 2.9%-3% (10Yr) and 3.45%-3.5% (30Yr) is possible.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5967%) has come up to its crucial resistance level of 6.6%. We expect this resistance to hold and drag the yield lower to 6.4%.

The Dow Jones and Dax have dipped but while the Dow could limit its fall to 45000, Dax could decline to 24000-23500. Nifty rose yesterday as expected but could decline again today as profit taking is possible before the tariff impact of 50% likely to come into effect from tomorrow. Nifty can dip to 24800 while below 24200-25000. Nikkei and Shanghai too have dipped slightly today. Nikkei can test 42000-41000 while Shanghai can test resistance at 4000.

The Dow (45282.47, -0.77%) dipped slightly yesterday but while above support at 45000, the dip could be short lived before rising again towards 46000-47000 eventually.

DAX (24273.12, -0.37%) dipped yesterday despite higher German IFO figures as news from France came in that it may request for a confidence vote in parliament on 8 September to gain backing on the governments plan to reduce spending by over EU40 bln. The overall view is bearish while below 24500. The index can target 24000 or slightly lower.

Nifty (24967.75, +0.39%) rose yesterday as expected but is likely to open lower today and see some dips ahead of the 50% tariff by the US that is likely to come into effect from tomorrow. The markets would be closed tomorrow on account of Ganesh Chaturthi hence some profit taking may be seen today. Overall while below 25200-25000, a dip back to 24800 can be seen.

Nikkei (42393.57, -0.97%) has dipped today. A fall towards 42000-41000 looks likely before an eventual bounce back is seen in the medium term.

Shanghai (3871.47, -0.31%) has dipped slightly today but looks overall bullish towards near term resistance at 4000.

Brent and WTI have both tested resistances near $ 69 and $ 65, and as long as these levels hold, they risk a corrective dip towards $ 67–$ 65 and $ 62–$ 60 respectively in the coming weeks. Gold remains poised for a rise to $ 3,450–$ 3,500, though failure to break above $ 3,450 could drag it back to $ 3,350 or even $ 3,300–$ 3,250. Silver is steady above $ 38, keeping the scope open for a climb towards $ 39.50–$ 40. Copper continues to trade within the $ 4.50–$ 4.40 range awaiting a breakout, while Natural Gas has bounced from support and could extend higher towards $ 2.90 unless a reversal unfolds.

Brent ($ 68.45) rose above $ 68 and tested a high of $ 69.07 as expected. Immediate resistance is near $ 69, and while this holds, the price can pull back to $ 67–$ 65 on the downside in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 64.44) rose above $ 64 to test a high of $ 65.10 yesterday, in line with expectations. Immediate resistance is near current levels, and while this holds, a reversal to $ 62–$ 60 could be seen in the coming weeks.

Gold ($ 3,423.40) is inching higher in line with expectations and can extend towards $ 3,450–$ 3,500 in the near term. A failure to rise past $ 3,450 would stall the move to $ 3,500 and instead trigger a pullback to $ 3,350, making it vulnerable to a deeper fall towards $ 3,300–$ 3,250.

Silver ($ 38.70) dipped to $ 38.52 yesterday but as long as it holds above $ 38, the outlook remains positive for a rise towards $ 39.50–$ 40.00 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.4775) is rising but is likely to remain within the $ 4.50–$ 4.40 range until a decisive breakout occurs on either side.

Natural Gas ($ 2.8060) held support as expected and pushed higher to $ 2.8260 yesterday. A further rise towards $ 2.90 looks likely in the near term unless a reversal sets in.

12:30 01:00 US Durable Goods Orders
-1.50 …Expectation -3.80 …Previous -9.34

13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
…Expectation 2.90 …Previous 2.79

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
100.60 …Expectation 96.30 …Previous 97.20

DATA YESTERDAY
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9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
86.8 …Expectation 88.6 …Previous 88.6 …Actual 89

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations Index
86.2 …Expectation 86.7 …Previous 86.5 …Actual 86.4

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations Index
87.3 …Expectation 90.2 …Previous 90.8 …Actual 91.6

14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
621 …Expectation 635 …Previous 627 …Actual 652