The Dollar Index, Euro and the EURINR are likely to trade within the 99-97, 1.1500-1.1750 and 101.50-103.00 regions respectively. EURJPY and USDJPY can get dragged to 170-169 and 145 as well if a break below 171 and 147 happens. USDCNY can test 7.14 soon. Aussie and Pound are headed towards the resistance at 0.655 and 1.3530 respectively which can be tested soon. Thereafter, whether the pairs extend the rise further or fall back will have to be seen. USDINR was closed yesterday. While below 88, a fall back towards 87.50-87.25 looks possible. US GDP Data release is scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.149) came down sharply from the high of 98.73 after the New York Fed chief John Williams signaled a cut was possible. A narrow range of 99-97 is holding for now. A break on either side will be needed for further clarity. For now, the downside is expected to be limited to 97.

EURUSD (1.1648) has recovered well from the low of 1.1573 but overall the pair can trade within 1.1500-1.1750 range in the near term.

EURINR (102.1268) is trading higher within its 101.50-103.00 range and if sustained can test the resistance at 103 before halting.

EURJPY (171.62) continues to trade lower within its range of 173-171. Watch price action closely to see whether the range remains intact or the fall gets extended towards 170-169.

Dollar-Yen (147.28) yesterday rose to the high of 148.18 but later faded the gains on Dollar weakness. A confirmed break below 147 if seen can take it towards the deeper support at 145, which in turn can delay the rise to 150-151.

USDCNY (7.1521) is gradually coming off and can soon test 7.14 as well. Thereafter, whether the support holds and the pair bounces back again or extends the fall deeper will have to be seen. Wait and watch for now.

Aussie (0.6516) is headed towards the resistance at 0.655 which is likely to be tested. Thereafter, a confirmed break past 0.655 will be needed to bring 0.6 and higher levels into picture. Failure to do so can keep the 0.655-0.640 range intact.

Pound (1.3514) in line with our view of seeing a fall towards 1.34/33, tested the low of 1.3416 before recovering from there. Currently the pair faces immediate resistance just above current levels, break past which if seen can take it towards 1.36-1.37. The downside can be limited to 1.33 for now.

USDINR (87.5850) was closed yesterday on the account of Ganesh Chaturthi. While the resistance near 87.90-88.00 holds, a fall back towards 87.50-87.25 can be witnessed in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have come down again and keeps alive the chances of testing their support. Overall, a broad sideways range is possible for some time. The US PCE data release will be important to watch. A soft PCE number will strengthen the case for rate and drag the yields lower. The German yields have reversed lower and can test their support in the near term. Failure to rise back from the support can drag them lower. The 10Yr GoI spiked breaking above its key resistances and has come down again. While the resistance holds, there are good chances for the yield to come down in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.24%) and 30Yr (4.91%) Treasury has come down again and keeps alive the chances of testing 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) on the downside. As mentioned earlier, 4.2%-4.5%/4.6% (10Yr) and 4.8%-5.1%/5.2% (30Yr) is likely to be the broader trading range that can be seen.

The German 10Yr (2.70%) and 30Yr (3.30%) yields have come down again. The crucial support at 2.65% (10Yr) and 3.25% (30Yr) can be tested now which has to hold to keep alive the chances of the rise to 2.9%-3% (10Yr) and 3.45%-3.5% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5997%) spiked to 6.65% and has come down. While below 6.6%, a fall to 6.4% can be seen. A decisive break/close above 6.6% will negate the fall and take the yield up to 6.8%.

The Dow Jones has risen back above 45000 and could head towards 46000-47000 while the Dax slipped yesterday after weak German Consumer sentiment data. Dax could be bearish towards 23500 initially before bouncing back higher towards 24500 in the medium term. Nifty is likely to continue declining towards 24600-24500. Nikkei is slightly up today and needs a decisive break above 42700/800 to rise further, while Shanghai has declined on the 200% tariff threat by the US and could decline to 3700 while below 4000.

The Dow (45565.23, +0.32%) has managed to rise back above 45000, and while the support holds well, the index can head towards 46000-47000 eventually. The view is bullish above 45000.

DAX (24046.21, -0.44%) slipped yesterday after a weak German GfK Consumer Sentiment Index that fell to -23.6. A test of 23500 looks possible before a bounce back is seen eventually within the range of 23500-24500.

Nifty (24712.05, -1.02%) was closed yesterday for Ganesh Chaturthi. The trade tariff of 50% on Indian exports to the US has come into effect from yesterday. Nifty fell sharply on Tuesday, and if it continues, could dip to 24600-24500 in the near term. Overall, the 25200-25000 region is likely to hold as crucial resistance in the near term.

Nikkei (42563.92, +0.10%) trades slightly higher today. A decisive break above 42700-42800 can take it higher towards 43000-43500 again. Else, a dip, if seen from 42700/800, can drag it back towards 42000-41000.

Shanghai (3806.94, +0.17%) fell sharply from the week’s high at 3888.60 on threats of a 200% tariff by the US on China if Beijing does not export rare-earth magnets to the US. While below crucial resistance at 4000, the index has scope to dip to support at 3700 before bouncing back in the medium term.

Crude prices recovered on short covering but faces resistance near $ 68 (Brent) and $ 64 (WTI), keeping it vulnerable to $ 67–$ 65 and $ 62–$ 60 respectively in the near term. Gold is testing $ 3,450, a break of which can take it to $ 3,500, else it risks pulling back to $ 3,350. Silver remains bullish towards $ 40 and beyond, while Copper, after a sharp bounce from $ 4.3745, is challenging resistance at $ 4.50 and could head towards $ 4.60–$ 4.65 if broken. Natural Gas is holding strong near $ 2.90, and a sustained break higher could extend the rise to $ 3.00–$ 3.10, though failure to clear may drag it back to $ 2.80–$ 2.70.

Brent ($ 67.70) recovered from early losses on Wednesday and settled higher as short covering emerged after the weekly EIA report showed a fall in crude inventories and oil supplies at Cushing. However, immediate resistance is seen near $ 68 on the near-term charts, and while this holds, a decline towards $ 67–$ 65 is expected in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 63.78) reversed from the low of $ 63.25 on 26th Aug and saw a bounce back yesterday, but while below $ 64, a further fall towards $ 62–$ 60 remains possible in the coming weeks.

Gold ($ 3,446.10) is moving higher but needs to break above $ 3,450 to see a further rise towards $ 3,500. If this level holds, it can pull back towards $ 3,350, making it vulnerable to a deeper fall towards $ 3,300–$ 3,250.

Silver ($ 39.32) closed at $ 38.71 yesterday but opened higher with a gap up at $ 39.16 as expected. It remains bullish towards $ 40 or even higher in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.4985) initially broke lower below $ 4.40 and dipped to $ 4.3745 before bouncing back to close higher at $ 4.42 yesterday. Today it opened with a gap up at its immediate resistance of $ 4.50, and while this holds, the earlier mentioned range of $ 4.50–$ 4.40/$ 4.35 may continue. But considering the sharp bounce from yesterday’s low of $ 4.3745, buying interest is evident, and the price may break above $ 4.50 to head higher towards $ 4.60–$ 4.65.

Natural Gas ($ 2.8750) moved up and tested a high of $ 2.9125 in line with expectations. Immediate resistance is seen near $ 2.90, which needs to be broken to extend the rise towards $ 3.00–$ 3.10 in the coming weeks. Otherwise, it could remain vulnerable to a decline towards $ 2.80–$ 2.70.

5:45 11:15 CH GDP
…Expectation 0.1 …Previous 0.5

9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
…Expectation 95.90 …Previous 95.80

11:00 16:30 IN IIP
2.8 …Previous 1.5

12:30 18:00 US GDP
…Expectation 3.1 …Previous 2.9

DATA YESTERDAY
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NO MAJOR DATA RELEASE YESTERDAY.