The Dollar Index, Euro and the EURINR continue to hold the respective ranges of 97-99, 1.1750-1.1500 and 103.00-101.50. EURJPY and USDJPY need to fall below 171 and 147 to extend the fall to 170-169 and 145 as well. USDCNY slipped below 7.14 and can test the deeper support at 7.12 before bouncing back later. Aussie and Pound needs to decisively breach the resistance at 0.655 and 1.3530 respectively to bring higher levels into picture. If the USDINR holds above 87.50, it can attempt to rise back towards 87.75-88.00 again. IN GDP, US Personal Income & US PCE Data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.026) has bounced a little from the low of 97.73 but overall the range of 97-99 remains intact for now. A better clarity could be expected after the PCE data release scheduled today. For now, the downside can be limited to 97.

EURUSD (1.1659) further extended the rise to 1.1697 before cooling down a bit. While the resistance near 1.1750 holds, the range of 1.1750-1.1500 can persist in the near term.

EURINR (102.1608) looks stable above 102 but the immediate upside can be capped at 103. A broad range of 103.00-101.50 can hold for a while.

EURJPY (171.62) need to see a confirmed break below 171 to bring 170-169 into picture. Else, the cross can trade within the 173-171 region for some time.

Dollar-Yen (146.96) if slowly inching lower and a fall below 147 if seen can take it towards the deeper support at 145, which in turn can delay the rise to 150-151.

USDCNY (7.1295) slipped below 7.14 and is headed towards the deeper support coming at 7.12. Thereafter, while the support holds, a bounce back towards 7.15 is possible in the near term.

Aussie (0.6540) on a decisive break past 0.6550, can head towards 0.66 and higher in the coming sessions. Failure to do so can keep the 0.655-0.640 range intact.

Pound (1.3502) is holding well below the resistance coming just above current levels. Need to see whether the rise extends to 1.36-1.37 or the pair falls back towards 1.34. Overall, the range of 1.34/33-1.36 can hold for some time.

USDINR (87.6030) tested the MA support at 87.50 before closing higher. If the pair stays above this level, a rise towards 87.75-87.90 is more likely than a fall to 87.25. Still, with the RBI actively involved in the market, a short-term decline towards 87.25 cannot be entirely dismissed.

The US Treasury yields are coming close to their key support. Failure to sustain above their support can drag them down further in the coming days. The US PCE data release today can be the key in deciding that. A soft PCE number can drag the yields lower as it will strengthen the case for rate cuts. The German yields are coming down to test their support as expected. They have to bounce back from the support to keep the chances alive of the rise and avoid more fall. The 10Yr GoI has come down sharply. The resistance is holding well as expected. The yield can fall more.

The US 10Yr (4.21%) and 30Yr (4.88%) Treasury yields have come down further. The 10Yr has to sustain above 4.2% to avoid a fall to 4.1% and rise back to 4.4%. The 30Yr on the other has room to see 4.85% or 4.8%. It has to rise back thereafter to avoid more fall.

The German 10Yr (2.69%) and 30Yr (3.29%) yields are heading down as expected, to test their crucial support at 2.65% (10Yr) and 3.25% (30Yr). Failure to bounce back from there will negate the rise to 2.9%-3% (10Yr) and 3.45%-3.5% (30Yr). Wait and watch.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5328%) has come down sharply. The resistance at 6.6% is holding well as expected. That keeps intact our view of seeing a fall to 6.4%. As mentioned yesterday, a decisive break/close above 6.6% is needed to negate the fall and take the yield up to 6.8%.

The Dow Jones could head towards 46000-47000 while above support near 44500. The Dax can test 23500 initially before bouncing back higher towards 24500 in the medium term. Nifty is likely to continue declining towards 24400-24200. Nikkei too can dip to 42500-42300 while Shanghai can rise to resistance near 4000 before declining towards 3700.

The Dow (45636.90, +0.16%) has support at 44500 and lower at 44000, above which the index could rise towards 46000-47000 eventually. The view is bullish above 45000.

DAX (24039.92, -0.026%) can test support at 23500 before a bounce back is seen eventually within the range of 23500-24500.

Nifty (24500.90, -0.85%) has plunged towards the support near 24400. But a possible bounce back can be expected from here else the index could be vulnerable to dip to 24200-24000 in the coming dayam watch price action near 24400.

Nikkei (42658.87, -0.40%) trades lower today. While below 42700, the index can fall to 42500-42300. A maximum dip to support at 41000 can be possible.

Shanghai (3850.15, +0.17%) is trading in the green today. If the rise sustains, a test of 4000 looks possible before a possible decline to 3700 in the medium term. The 3700-4000 broad range may hold unles a breakout is seen on either side of the range.

Crude oil settled higher on short covering but as long as Brent faces resistance near $ 68.00/$ 68.50 and WTI near $ 64.50, the broader view remains bearish towards $ 67.00–$ 65.00 and $ 62.00–$ 60.00 respectively. Gold looks firm above $ 3,450 with scope to rise towards $ 3,500–$ 3,550, Silver is capped near $ 40.00 and may dip to $ 39.00–$ 38.50 before resuming its uptrend towards $ 40.50–$ 41.00, Copper has broken above $ 4.50 and could extend gains to $ 4.60–$ 4.65, while Natural Gas has cleared resistance and is likely to head towards $ 3.10–$ 3.20 in the near term.

Brent ($ 67.55) settled higher as short covering emerged following German Chancellor Merz’s statement that a meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky is unlikely to materialize. As long as the immediate resistance near $ 68.00/$ 68.50 holds, we retain our view of a decline towards $ 67.00–$ 65.00 in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 64.19) bounced back but faces immediate resistance near $ 64.50, and while this holds, we maintain our view of a fall towards $ 62.00–$ 60.00 in the coming weeks.

Gold ($ 3,472.40) has risen above $ 3,450 and can extend higher towards $ 3,500–$ 3,550 in the near term.

Silver ($ 39.61) tested a high of $ 39.86 in line with our expectation. A near-term resistance is seen near $ 40.00, and while this holds, we could see a dip towards $ 39.00–$ 38.50 in the coming sessions before the uptrend continues towards $ 40.50–$ 41.00 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.5485) as mentioned yesterday, has broken above $ 4.50 and tested a high of $ 4.5550. A further rise towards $ 4.60–$ 4.65 can be expected in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 2.99) has broken above the resistance as expected and can rise towards $ 3.10–$ 3.20 in the near term.

23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
…Expectations 2.5 …Previous 2.5

12:00 17:30 IN GDP
…Previous 6.4%

12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
0.1 …Expectations 0.4 …Previous 0.3

12:30 18:00 US PCE M/M
0.2 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.3

12:30 18:00 US Core PCE
0.2 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.3

5:45 11:15 CH GDP
…Expectation 0.1 …Previous 0.5 …Actual 0.1

9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
95.05 …Expectation 95.90 …Previous 95.80 …Actual 95.20

10:30 16:00 IN IIP
2.8 …Expectation 2.1 …Previous 1.5 …Actual 3.5

{12:30 18:00 US GDP
…Expectation 3.1 …Previous 2.9 …Actual 3.3