The Dollar Index can be vulnerable to extend the ongoing fall towards the lower end of its 99-97 if it fails to see an immediate bounce back from the support near 97.75 level. Euro faces immediate resistance at 1.1730 and higher at 1.18, thereby suggesting limited upside. EURINR needs to see a break past 103.50 to bring 104 and higher levels into picture. EURJPY and USDJPY can hold the 171-173 and 148.00-145.50 range for some time. USDCNY can fall towards the support between 7.12-7.11 region. Aussie and Pound needs to decisively breach the resistance at 0.655 and 1.3530 respectively to rise further. USDINR can head towards 89 while above 88.

Dollar Index (97.832) is hovering near the interim support coming at 97.75 level. Failure to see an immediate bounce back can drag the index lower to 97 or even 96.50 in the near term. For now, a range of 99-97 is likely to hold for some time.

EURUSD (1.1697) faces interim resistance at 1.1730 and higher at 1.18, below which a broad range of 1.18/1750-1.15 can persist in the near term.

EURINR (103.1482) has risen past 103, contrary to our view of holding 103-101.50 range. Now, a decisive break past 103.50 will be needed to bring 104 and higher levels into picture. Immediate support at 102.

EURJPY (172.21) is holding the 171-173 range quite well for now. A confirmed break on either side will be needed for further clarity.

Dollar-Yen (147.17) can consolidate between the 148-146/145.50 region for some time before a break happens on either side.

USDCNY (7.1287) is headed towards the support coming around 7.11 which can be tested in the near term. Thereafter, whether the support holds and pair bounces back to 7.15 or extends the fall further will have to be seen.

Aussie (0.6540) on a decisive break past 0.6550, can head towards 0.6600-0.6650 in the coming sessions. Failure to do so can keep the 0.655-0.640 range intact.

Pound (1.3521) is trading just below the resistance coming around current levels, breach past which can take it towards 1.36-1.37 levels.

USDINR (88.1560) rose sharply above 88 on Friday due to tariffs and the growth concerns on India. Now, while above 88, a further test to 89 looks possible before eventually coming down.

The US Treasury yields are holding above their support. They have to bounce from here to rise further and avoid more fall. We will have to wait and see. The German Yields are bouncing back from near their support. While this support holds, the bias is positive to see more rise going forward. The 10Yr GoI continues to oscillate around its resistance. For now, there can be a range around this resistance. Eventually we can see the yield coming down.

The US 10Yr (4.23%) and 30Yr (4.93%) Treasury yields have bounced slightly. They have to sustain above 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) to keep alive the chances of rising back to 4.35%-4.4% and 5%-5.05% respectively. Else a fall to 4.1% (10Yr) 4.75% (30Yr) can be seen.

The German 10Yr (2.72%) and 30Yr (3.33%) yields have bounced back. While above 2.65% (10Yr) and 3.25% (30Yr) the bias will remain bullish to see a rise to 2.9%-3% (10Yr) and 3.45%-3.5% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5678%) spiked to 6.6379% and has come down. We repeat that a decisive break/close above 6.6% is needed for a rise to 6.8%. While below 6.6%, the yield can fall back to 6.4% and lower eventually. For now 6.5%-6.6%/6.65% looks likely to be the trading range.

The Dow Jones could dip while below resistance at 46000 and test 45000-44500. The Dax can trade within 23500-24500 region in the near term while Nifty may bounce from support near 24400-24350 region and head back towards 24600-24800. Nikkei can dip to 42000-41000 before bouncing higher while Shanghai can rise to resistance near 4000 before declining towards 3700 in the medium term.

The Dow (45544.88, -0.20%) could face rejection from resistance at 46000 and could trade within a range of 46000-45000/44500 for the near term. An initial dip can be possible following a US appeal court that stated the reciprocal tariffs of Trump as “illegal”.

DAX (23902.21, -0.57%) can test support at 23500 before a bounce back is seen eventually towards the upper end of the near term range of 23500-24500.

Nifty (24426.85, -0.30%) has fallen towards the support region of 24400-24350 which is likely to hold and produce a bounce back towards 24600-24800 in the medium term.

Nikkei (42192.64, -1.23%) has fallen as expected and could have scope to extend to 42000-41000 before bouncing back in the medium term.

Shanghai (3863.87, +0.15%) is headed towards crucial resistance near 4000 from where a decline to 3700 is possible in the medium term. A range of 3700-4000
may hold for now.

Brent and WTI remain under pressure below key resistances and are expected to decline further in the coming weeks, while Gold has risen above $ 3,500 but faces resistance at $ 3,550 that could trigger either a pullback or a fresh rally if broken. Silver is testing a crucial breakout point near $ 41.20, with a sustained move higher opening the door to $ 42–43, else a dip towards $ 40–38 is possible. Copper continues to strengthen towards $ 4.60–4.65, and Natural gas is also gaining with scope to rise towards $ 3.10–3.20.

Brent ($ 67.18) is trading below the immediate resistance, and while this holds, we maintain our view of a decline towards $ 67.00–$ 65.00 in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 63.73) is holding below resistance and can fall towards $ 62.00–$ 60.00 in the coming weeks.

Gold ($ 3,526.70) has risen above $ 3,500 in line with our expectation. An immediate resistance is seen near $ 3,550, and while this holds, the price can pull back to $ 3,450–$ 3,400 in the near term. A sustained break above $ 3,550, however, would turn the outlook bullish and trigger a fresh rally towards $ 3,600–$ 3,650 or higher.

Silver ($ 41.26) is moving up sharply and is attempting to break above the crucial resistance near $ 41.20. A sustained break above this level would confirm further bullishness towards $ 42.00–$ 43.00 in the coming weeks, while failure to do so could lead to a pullback towards $ 40.00–$ 38.00.

Copper ($ 4.5920) is moving up in line with expectations and can rise towards $ 4.60–$ 4.65 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.0150) is moving higher and can rise towards $ 3.10–$ 3.20 in the near term.

0:30 06:00 JP PMI
…Expectations 49.9 …Previous 48.9

1:45 07:15 CN PMI
…Expectations 49.5 ….Previous 49.5

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
…Expectations 59.8 …Previous 59.1

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
… 48.0 …Expectations 46.9 …Previous 48.8

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
…Expectations 50.5 …Previous 49.8

8:30 14:00 UK PMI
… 48.3 …Expectations 47.3 …Previous 48.0

9:00 14:30 EU Unemp
…Expectations 6.2 …Previous 6.2

DATA LAST FRIDAY
===============

23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
2.5 …Expectations 2.5 …Previous 2.5 …Actual 2.3

12:00 17:30 IN GDP
6.2% …Expectations 6.7% …Previous 6.4% …Actual 7.4%

12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
0.1 …Expectations 0.4 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.4

12:30 18:00 US PCE M/M
0.2 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.3

12:30 18:00 US Core PCE
0.2 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.3

12:30 18:00 CA GDP
…Expectations 0 …Previous -0.1 …Actual -0.1