The Dollar Index faces immediate resistance at 98, break past which will be needed to rise further. An immediate trade range of 97-99 can hold for some time. The Euro is stuck between the 1.18-1.16 region. EURINR below 103.50 can be vulnerable to fall back towards 102.50-102.00. EURJPY and USDJPY can hold the 171-173 and 146.00-148 range for some time. USDCNY has bounced well and if sustained can head towards 7.15-7.17 in the near term. Aussie and Pound needs to decisively breach the resistance at 0.655 and 1.3530 respectively to rise further. USDINR turned lower from 88.33 itself and while below 88.50, a test to 88.00-87.75 looks likely in the near term. US ISM Manufacturing data release is scheduled today.

Dollar Index (97.769) is attempting to rise back but a break past 98 will be needed to rise further. For now, a range of 97-99 is likely to hold for some time.

EURUSD (1.1703) can consolidate between 1.16/15-1.18 region for some time before a break is seen on either side.

EURINR (103.0890) had initially risen to 103.56 but could not sustain and started to decline. Only a decisive break above 103.50 can take it towards 104 or higher. Otherwise, while this resistance holds, a pullback towards 102.50-102.00 is likely.

EURJPY (172.21) is trading higher within its 171-173 range. A break past 173 if seen can take it to test the resistance at 174 in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (147.69) bounced from the low of 146.78 itself. Overall, 146-148 can be the immediate trade range that can persist for a while. Only a decisive break past 148 can bring 150 and higher levels into picture.

USDCNY (7.1413) was anticipated to fall towards 7.11 but instead it limited the downside to 7.1267 and has currently recovered well from there. While the rise sustains, a further test to 7.15-7.17 looks likely to happen in the near term. Immediate support at 7.11.

Aussie (0.6543) needs to breach 0.6550 to head towards 0.6600-0.6650 in the coming sessions. Else, the range of 0.655-0.640 can remain intact.

Pound (1.3525) needs to see a sustained rise past 1.35 to head towards 1.36-1.37 in the near term, else it can be vulnerable to fall back towards 1.34 or lower. Watch price action closely around the current levels.

USDINR (88.0470) tested the high of 88.33 before declining a bit from there. Immediate resistance at 88.50, below which an initial pullback towards 88.00-87.75 can happen before resuming its upward move towards 89 thereafter.

The US Treasury yields have inched up further. They are managing sustain above their support. That reduces the danger of seeing more fall. It also keeps the chances alive of the yields rising in the coming days. The German yields have moved up further. The bullish bias is intact to see more rise. The 10Yr GoI continues to oscillate inside the expected range. The sideways range can continue for some time. Bias is negative to see a downside break of this range eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.25%) and 30Yr (4.95%) Treasury yields have inched up further. While above 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) the chances of rising back to 4.35%-4.4% (10Yr) and 5%-5.05% (30Yr) will remain alive. Else a fall to 4.1% (10Yr) 4.75% (30Yr) can be seen.

The German 10Yr (2.74%) and 30Yr (3.35%) yields have risen further. The support at 2.65% (10Yr) and 3.25% (30Yr) has held very well. That keeps the bullish view intact to see 2.9%-3% (10Yr) and 3.45%-3.5% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5850%) continues to oscillate in the 6.5%-6.6%/6.65% range. We reiterate that a decisive break/close above 6.6% is needed for a rise to 6.8%. We retain our bias bearish for a fall to 6.4% while below 6.6%-6.65%.

The Dow Jones is likely to dip within the range of 46000-44500 while the Dax can trade within 23500-24500 region in the near term. Nifty has bounced well from support near 24400 and can now move up towards 24800-25000 in the coming days. Nikkei has bounced well and while above support at 42000-41000, view is bullish for a rise to 43000. Shanghai can rise towards resistance near 4000 before declining towards 3800 in the medium term.

The Dow (45544.88, -0.20%) could face rejection from resistance at 46000 and could trade within a range of 46000-45000/44500 for the near term.

DAX (24037.33, +0.57%) has risen slightly but is likely to trade within the range of 23500-24500.

Nifty (24625.05, +0.81%) has bounced well, holding above the support at 24400. The rise is likely to extend towards 24800-25000 in the coming days.

Nikkei (42305.15 +0.28%) seems to be holding well above the support at 41500 and could slowly rise towards 42500-43000 in the near term.

Shanghai (3877.13, +0.041%) is slowly heading towards crucial resistance near 4000 from where a dip to 3800 is possible in the medium term. A range of 3800-4000
may hold for now.

Brent and WTI are both testing their immediate resistance levels, and a break higher could extend the uptrend towards $ 70–$ 72 (Brent) and $ 66–$ 68 (WTI), while failure to break through may see them slip back towards $ 67–$ 65 and $ 62–$ 60 respectively. Gold has surged past $ 3,550 to a record high with scope to test $ 3,600–$ 3,650. Silver remains bullish above $ 41 with room for $ 42.50–$ 43.00. Copper looks poised to extend its rise towards $ 4.65–$ 4.70, and Natural Gas, despite a brief dip, stays on track for $ 3.10–$ 3.20.

Brent ($ 68.55) is attempting to break above the immediate resistance, and a sustained break above could take the price towards $ 70–$ 72. However, if the resistance holds, our earlier view of a decline towards $ 67.00–$ 65.00 may come into play.

WTI ($ 65.04) has unexpectedly bounced back to its immediate resistance. If this level holds, our earlier view of a fall towards $ 62.00–$ 60.00 remains valid in the coming weeks. On the other hand, a break above this resistance could trigger a further rise towards $ 66–$ 68.

Gold ($ 3,568.60) has broken above $ 3,550 and surged to an all-time high of $ 3,578.40 yesterday. A further rise towards $ 3,600–$ 3,650 looks possible in the near term.

Silver ($ 41.93) has broken above the immediate resistance and surged to a high of $ 42.00 as expected. While above $ 41, the outlook remains bullish with potential for a further rise towards $ 42.50–$ 43.00 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.5985) has seen a high of $ 4.6125 yesterday as mentioned earlier. A further move up towards $ 4.65–$ 4.70 looks likely in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 2.9550) has dipped slightly, but our outlook remains intact for a rise towards $ 3.10–$ 3.20 in the near term.

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Flash CPI (YoY)
2.5 …Expectations 2.0 …Previous 2.0

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 CA PMI
…Previous 46.1

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
47.6 …Expectations 48.9 Previous 48.0

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 JP PMI
49.7 …Expectations 49.9 …Previous 48.9 …Actual 49.7

GMT 1:45 IST 07:15 CN PMI
50.4 …Expectations 49.5 ….Previous 49.5 …Actual 50.5

GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
58.9 …Expectations 59.8 …Previous 59.1 …Actual 59.3

GMT 7:30 IST 13:00 CH PMI
… 48.0 …Expectations 46.9 …Previous 48.8 …Actual 49

GMT 8:00 IST 13:30 EU PMI
…Expectations 50.5 …Previous 49.8 …Actual 50.7

GMT 8:30 IST 14:00 UK PMI
… 48.3 …Expectations 47.3 …Previous 48.0 …Actual 47

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Unemp
6.3 …Expectations 6.2 …Previous 6.2 …Actual 6.2