Rising fiscal risks in the UK and political instability in Japan strengthened the Dollar yesterday. The Dollar Index can head towards 99.00-99.50 before halting. The Euro is coming off and a fall below 1.16 can drag it to 1.15 as well before bouncing back. EURINR can extend the ongoing fall to the support at 102.00. EURJPY and USDJPY need to see a break past 174 and 149 to bring higher levels of 176 and 150-152 into the picture respectively. USDCNY can target 7.15-7.17 in the near term. Aussie can continue to hold its 0.655-0.640 range, while Pound can test 1.33 if the ongoing fall extends further. USDINR is trading above 88 on the NDF and while it trades above 87.75,can ascend towards 89 as well. while below 88.50, a test to 88.00-87.75 looks likely in the near term. IN Services PMI and EU Composite PMI data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.447) has indeed risen past 98 and if sustained, can test the higher resistance at 99.00-99.50 in the near term. For now, a range of 97-99 is likely to hold for some time.

The selloff in the UK 30yr Gilts due to fiscal concerns led EURUSD (1.1634) to test 1.1612 yesterday. A break below 1.16 can drag it further to 1.15 as well. Overall, its range of 1.18-1.15 can continue to persist in the near term.

EURINR (102.4296) is headed towards the support coming at 102 which can be tested soon before attempting to rise back again. An immediate trade range of 103.50-102.00 can hold for now.

EURJPY (173.04) cross has climbed above 173 but faces strong resistance at 174, break past which will be needed to target 176. Failure to do so could leave it vulnerable to a pullback towards 172–170 in the near term. Watch price action closely around current levels.

Dollar-Yen (148.80) indeed rose past 148 as well and a rise past 149 can open the doors for 150-152 in the near term before halting.

USDCNY (7.1412) is slowly inching higher and while above 7.13 a further rise to 7.16-7.17 looks possible.

Aussie (0.6518) failed to breach 0.6550 and the range of 0.655-0.640 continues to remain intact for now.

Pound (1.3368) had initially risen to the high of 1.3549 but could not sustain and witnessed a sharp fall along with the Euro. Now, an immediate support is coming at 1.33 which can be tested soon if the fall extends further before attempting to bounce back again.

USDINR (88.0490) tested 87.83 yesterday in line with our bearish view. On the NDF it is currently trading above 88 and while the pair trades above 87.75, a rally towards 89 can be witnessed in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields continue to move up. They are heading up to test their resistance. The price action at the resistance will need a watch to see if the upmove is extending or reversing lower again. The German yields have risen further. The bullish view is intact, and there is room to rise more. The 10Yr GoI has come down within the range. For now, the range is intact and the yield can continue to oscillate within it.

The US 10Yr (4.28%) and 30Yr (4.98%) Treasury yields are heading up towards 4.35%-4.4% (10Yr) and 5%-5.05% (30Yr) in line with our expectation. The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if the rise is extending or the yields are reversing lower again.

The German 10Yr (2.78%) and 30Yr (3.4%) yields have risen sharply. The bullish view is intact. The yields can rise to 2.9%-3% (10Yr) and 3.45%-3.5% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5658%) has declined within the 6.5%-6.6%/6.65% range. The range is intact. Our bias is bearish to see a break below 6.6% and fall to 6.4%. A decisive close above 6.6% is needed to negate this fall and see a rise to 6.8%.

Most indices are trading in the negative territory. The Dow Jones could test 45000 before bouncing from there while the Dax has broken below the crucial support at 23500. Failure to bounce back immediately can drag it lower towards 23000-22000. Watch price action over the next few sessions. Nifty could not sustain its rise above 24700 yesterday and back to close sharply lower. A fall to 24400 is possible within the near term range of 24400-24800. Nikkei could limit its fall to support at 41500 and rise back towards 43000 while Shanghai trades in the green today and can rise slowly towards 4000 while above immediate support at 3800.

The Dow (45295.81, -0.55%) fell sharply yesterday but could limit its fall to near term support at 45000 from where a bounce back towards 46000 can be possible eventually.

DAX (23487.33, -2.29%) fell on broad sell off seen due to geopolitical tensions in France and on a rising bond yields. The Index having broken below the crucial support at 23500, needs to rise back immediately to avoid further decline towards 23000-22000 in the coming days. Watch price action for the next couple of sessions to see if there is any bounce back above 23500.

Nifty (24579.60, -0.18%) failed to sustain the rise above 24700 and fell sharply in the second half of the trading session yesterday on weekly expiry.
While above 24400, the index can trade within a near term range of 24400-24800. Thereafter, a decisive break above 24800 will be needed for a rise towards 25000-25250.

Nikkei (42195.48, -0.27%) has dipped today after a decent rise seen yesterday post the SCO summit. There fall can be limited to support near 41500 above which a bounce back can be expected towards soon 43000 in the medium term.

Shanghai (3866.64, +0.22%) dipped yesterday but while above immediate support at 3800, the index can rise to 4000 in the near term before facing rejection. A narrow range of 3800-4000 and broader range of 3700-4000 may hold for the next few weeks.

Crude prices have broken above resistance, supported by supply concerns from Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries and prospects of fresh US sanctions, with Brent aiming for $ 70–$ 72 and WTI for $ 66–$ 68. Gold has surged to $ 3,600 and faces a key resistance near $ 3,600–$ 3,650, a break of which could open the way to $ 3,800–$ 4,000 in long run, while failure may lead to a pullback towards $ 3,500–$ 3,400. Silver needs a break above $ 42 to extend gains towards $ 42.50–$ 43, otherwise it risks sliding back to $ 41–$ 40. Copper remains firm with scope to rise towards $ 4.70–$ 4.75, and Natural Gas continues to inch higher with potential to reach $ 3.10–$ 3.20.

Brent ($ 69.08) has broken above resistance and tested a high of $ 69.53. Concerns over tighter global supplies are driving prices higher after Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries cut Russia’s crude-processing runs to a three-year low. Comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent also supported crude after he said the US would consider additional sanctions on Russia for prolonging the war in Ukraine. Brent can head higher towards $ 70–$ 72 in the near term.

WTI ($ 65.59) has broken above immediate resistance, contrary to our expectations, and can rise further towards $ 66–$ 68 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,604.0) has surged to $ 3,600 in line with our expectations. A crucial long-term resistance is seen near $ 3,600–$ 3,650, which if broken would confirm further bullishness targeting $ 3,800–$ 4,000 over the long run. If this level holds, a pullback towards $ 3,500–$ 3,400 is possible.

Silver ($ 41.72) tested a high of $ 42.00 before retreating. A break above this level is needed to rise further towards $ 42.50–$ 43.00, else it may pull back towards $ 41.00–$ 40.00 on the downside.

Copper ($ 4.6310) tested a high of $ 4.6490 in line with our expectations and can rise further towards $ 4.70–$ 4.75 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 2.9960) is inching higher in line with our expectations and can rise towards $ 3.10–$ 3.20 in the near term.

GMT 22:30 IST 04:00 AU PMI
…Previous -23.9

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 AU GDP
…Expectations 0.5 …Previous 0.2

GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Services PMI
…Expectations 65.6 …Previous 60.5

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Composite PMI
…Expectations 51.1 …Previous 50.6

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Flash CPI (YoY)
2.5 …Expectations 2.0 …Previous 2.0 …Actual 2.1

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 CA PMI
…Previous 46.1 …Actual 48.3

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
47.6 …Expectations 48.9 Previous 48.0 …Actual 48.7