The Dollar Index, Euro and the EURINR can hold within the respective ranges of 97-99, 1.15-1.18 and 102.00-103.50 in the near term. EURJPY can trade within the 174-172 region while the resistance at 174 holds. USDJPY can dip to 147 initially. Only a rise past 149 can bring 150-152 into the picture. USDCNY above 7.13/12 can target 7.16-7.17 in the near term. The Aussie can continue to hold its 0.655-0.640 range, while the Pound can rise towards 1.35 or even 1.36 in the near term. USDINR can rally towards 89 in the coming weeks while above 87.75. US ADP Employment and the US Trade Balance data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.185) tested 98.64 before coming down. Still, while above 98, the target of 99.00-99.50 is kept alive. For now, a range of 97-99 is likely to hold for some time.

EURUSD (1.1656) needs to see a break on either side of its narrow range of 1.16-1.17 and broad range of 1.15-1.18 for further directional clarity.

EURINR (102.4296) has bounced well from the low of 102.30 and if sustained, can head towards 103.50 as well in the coming sessions. An immediate trade range of 102.00-103.50 can hold for now.

EURJPY (172.609) seems to be holding well below the resistance coming at 174 as it tested 173.30 before coming down. Now, while the resistance holds, the cross can consolidate between the 174-172 region before a break happens on either side.

Dollar-Yen (148.10) failed to see a rise past 149 and if the fall persists, a test to the support 147 looks likely to happen. Only a sustained rise past 149 can open the doors for 150-152 in the near term.

USDCNY (7.1410) was anticipated to rise towards 7.16/17 but it started to decline from 7.1479 itself. While the pair trades above 7.1300-7.1250, the targets of 7.16-7.17 can be achieved.

Aussie (0.6537) continues to trade within the range of 0.655-0.640.

Pound (1.3432) was anticipated to test the support near 1.33 and in line with that, a test to 1.333 was seen before recovering from there. While the pair sustains above current levels, it can extend the rise to the resistance coming at 1.35 or 1.36.

USDINR (88.0760) observed the low of 87.98 and closed above 88 on the OTC. While the pair trades above 87.75, we retain our view of seeing a rise towards 88.50-89.00 in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply. Failure to rise back from their immediate support can drag them lower. We will have to wait and see. The German yields have also come down. But supports are there to limit the downside and keep the uptrend intact. The yields can rise back and move higher. The 10Yr GoI is coming down within the range. We keep our bias negative to see a downside breakout of this range eventually. For now the range is intact though.

The US 10Yr (4.21%) and 30Yr (4.89%) Treasury yields have reversed lower sharply failing to breach their resistance. The 10Yr can fall to 4.1% if it breaks below 4.2%. The 30Yr on the other hand can test its supports at 4.85% and 4.8%.

The German 10Yr (2.74%) and 30Yr (3.35%) yields have come down. But support at 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) can limit the downside and keep the uptrend intact. We retain the view of seeing the rise to 2.9%-3% (10Yr) and 3.45%-3.5% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5430%) is coming down within the 6.5%-6.6%/6.65% range. We retain our bearish bias to break the range below 6.6% and fall to 6.4%. For now, the sideways range is intact.

The Dow is headed towards 46000 while above 44500-45000. The DAX needs to sustain above 23500 to keep the bullish momentum intact; else can become vulnerable to a sharp decline. Nifty rose well on the first day of the GST council meeting but has resistances near 24800/850 and higher at 25000 which need to be broken necessarily to see medium term bullishness. Nikkei is bullish towards 43000 while above 41500. Shanghai seems to be holding well below 3900 and is headed to tets 3700 first. A bounce from there if seen can keep the near term range of 3700-4000 intact. Break below 3700 can be strongly bearish.

The Dow (45271.23, -0.054%) managed to bounce back from 45000 itself instead of testing the support at 44500. Now while above 44500-45000, the index can slowly rise towards 46000.

DAX (23594.80, +0.46%) fell sharply yesterday but has managed to close above the crucial support at 23500. If the index rises from here, it could be bullish; else can become vulnerable to a further decline towards 23000-22000 in the coming days.

Nifty (24715.05, +0.55%) rose well yesterday after positive expectations from the first day of the GST council meeting. The positive sentiment can continue to hold today also, taking the Nifty towards 24850 or even higher. However, note crucial resistances at 24800/850 and higher near 25000.

Nikkei (42432.27, +1.18%) has moved up well today. While above support at 41000-41500, the index can rise towards 43000 soon.

Shanghai (3801.58, -0.31%) has fallen sharply contrary to our expectations of seeing another test of resistance near 4000. The index seems to have formed a double top formation and while below 3900, there is scope for a decent decline towards 3700 or even lower in the next few sessions. Any bounce from 3700 can keep the immediate range of 3700-3900/4000 intact for some more time.

Crude prices reversed after reports that OPEC+ may raise output, with Brent holding above $ 67 and WTI above $ 63 to keep chances of a rebound towards $ 70–$ 72 and $ 66–$ 68, though breaks lower could drag them to $ 64 and $ 60 respectively. Gold hit a fresh record near $ 3,640 but needs a break above $ 3,650 to extend its rally towards $ 3,700–$ 3,800, else risks a pullback to $ 3,400–$ 3,500, while Silver’s move hinges on sustaining above $ 42 for a rise towards $ 43 or slipping back to $ 40–$ 41. Copper remains firm with scope to test $ 4.70–$ 4.75. Natural gas is gradually inching higher towards $ 3.10–$ 3.20.

Brent ($ 67.27) reversed sharply to $ 67.36 yesterday on concerns of a global oil supply glut after a Reuters report suggested OPEC+ may increase production levels. While it sustains above $ 67, we retain our view of a rise towards $ 70–$ 72 in the near term. Alternatively, a sustained break below $ 67 could drag prices down to $ 66–$ 64.

WTI ($ 63.61) fell sharply to a low of $ 63.72 yesterday. It must sustain above $ 63 to see a rise towards $ 66–$ 68 in the near term. Otherwise, a break below $ 63 could trigger a further decline towards $ 62–$ 60.

Gold ($ 3,601.50) rose further to test a new all-time high of $ 3,640.10 yesterday. As mentioned earlier, it must break above $ 3,650 to extend the bullish move towards $ 3,700–$ 3,800. Otherwise, it could pull back towards $ 3,500–$ 3,400.

Silver ($ 41.35) initially broke above $ 42 and rose to a high of $ 42.29 before pulling back to close at $ 42.06 yesterday. A sustained break above $ 42 is needed to rise towards $ 42.50–$ 43.00, else it may retreat towards $ 41.00–$ 40.00.

Copper ($ 4.5975) dipped slightly after testing a high of $ 4.6750. Our outlook remains intact for a rise towards $ 4.70–$ 4.75 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.0820) is inching higher in line with expectations and can rise towards $ 3.10–$ 3.20 in the near term.

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 Australia Trade Balance A$ Bln
…Expectations 4.9 …Previous 5.4

GMT 6:30 IST 12:00 CH CPI
0.7 …Expectations 0.0 …Previous 0.3

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Retail Sales
0.6 …Expectations -0.2 …Previous 0.3

GMT 12:15 IST 17:45 US ADP Emp
…Expectations 71.0 …Previous 104.0

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectations -67.2 …Previous -60.2

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 22:30 IST 04:00 AU PMI
…Previous -23.9 …Actual -20.9

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 AU GDP
…Expectations 0.5 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.6

GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Services PMI
62.12 …Expectations 65.6 …Previous 60.5 …Actual 62.9

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Composite PMI
…Expectations 51.1 …Previous 50.9 …Actual 51.0