The Dollar Index, Euro and the EURINR continue to hold within the respective ranges of 97-99, 1.15-1.18 and 102.00-103.50 in the near term. A better directional clarity could be expected after the US NFP, Avg hrly Earnings and the Unemployment scheduled today. EURJPY can trade within the 172-174 region while the resistance at 174 holds. USDJPY below 149, can trade within 149-147/46 region. USDCNY is headed towards the support near 7.1300-7.1250. The Aussie can continue to hold its 0.655-0.640 range, while the Pound can rise towards 1.35 or even 1.36 in the near term. USDINR is slowly inching higher and the view remains intact to see a rise towards 88.25-88.50 in the coming weeks.

Dollar Index (98.118) had risen to the high of 98.44 before cooling down a bit. An immediate range of 97-99 is likely to hold for some time. A better directional clarity could be expected after the US NFP scheduled today.

EURUSD (1.1671) has risen further. Still the pair needs to see a break on either side of its narrow range of 1.16-1.17 and broad range of 1.15-1.18 for further directional clarity.

EURINR (102.7793) has moved up further and if sustained, can head towards 103.50 as well in the coming sessions. An immediate trade range of 102.00-103.50 can hold for now.

EURJPY (172.91) can continue to consolidate between the 172-174 region while the resistance at 174 holds.

Dollar-Yen (148.10) is unable to witness a rise past 149 which is needed to bring 151-152 into picture. While below 149, the pair can trade within 149-147/146 region for a while before a break happens.

USDCNY (7.1343) is nearing the support coming around 7.1300-7.1250 which can be tested soon. The targets of 7.16-7.17 are kept open while the pair trades above 7.1250.

Aussie (0.6528) continues to trade within the range of 0.655-0.640.

Pound (1.3453) is slowly inching higher and can test 1.35-1.36 in the coming sessions. A near term range of 1.33/34-1.36 can hold for some time.

USDINR (88.1520) is trading above 88 on the NDF. We retain our view of seeing a rise towards 88.25-88.50 in the coming weeks, with potential to move further up towards 89 later.

The US Treasury yields have declined sharply, breaking below their intermediate supports. That opens the door for more fall from here. The US NFP and Unemployment rate data release today will be important to watch. The German yields have dipped further. But the upcoming support can halt the fall and trigger a rise. The broader uptrend is intact. The 10Yr GoI has broken the range on the downside as expected. That keeps intact our bearish view. The yield can fall more from here.

The US 10Yr (4.15%) and 30Yr (4.84%) Treasury yields have declined sharply. The 10Yr can now test 4.1%-4.08% and the 30Yr can see 4.8%. Thereafter a bounce is possible.

The German 10Yr (2.72%) and 30Yr (3.33%) yields have dipped further. Support at 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) can limit the downside. The yields can bounce back from there and keep the bullish view intact to see 2.9%-3% (10Yr) and 3.45%-3.5% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.4934%) has declined below 6.5%. That keeps intact our view of seeing a fall to 6.4%.

Most indices are trading positive except the Shanghai. The Dow is headed towards 46000. The DAX has bounced well and while above support at 23500, a rise to 24500 can be possible in the next few sessions. Nifty saw profit taking yesterday. The range of 24400-24850/25000 may hold for now. Nikkei is likely to test 43000 soon. Thereafter it has to be seen if the rise can sustain higher towards 43500-44000 or not. Shanghai fell sharply yesterday after media reports suggested potential regulatory actions to curb speculation, along with the end of a major military parade in Beijing. Watch price action near support at 3700.

The Dow (45621.29, +0.77%) is rising towards 46000 as expected. Immediate view is bullish.

DAX (23770.33, +0.74%) is trading above the support at 23500, negating the downside risks at the moment. A rise to 24500 can be possible in the near term.

Nifty (24734.30, +0.078%) saw profit taking as early gains post the GST reforms could not sustain yesterday. Overall the immediate range of 24400-24850/25000 is likely to hold for a few more sessions.

Nikkei (42937.47, +0.84%) is rising towards 43000. Thereafter, it has to be seen if it can extend its rise further towards 43500-44000 or face rejection to dip to 42000 initially.

Shanghai (3751.33, -0.39%) has fallen sharply and is headed towards immediate support at 3700. Thereafter, we have to see if a bounce is seen back towards 3800+ or if the index breaks lower below 3700 to fall further towards 3600-3550.

Crude prices have slipped below key levels with Brent testing $ 66.35 and WTI $ 62.72, but both are holding near immediate supports at $ 66 and $ 62 respectively, which if sustained could trigger rebounds towards $ 68–$ 70 for Brent and $ 64–$ 66 for WTI. Gold is steady above $ 3600 but needs a decisive break past $ 3650 to extend gains towards $ 3700–$ 3800, else risks a pullback to $ 3500–$ 3400. Silver must clear $ 42 to regain upward momentum towards $ 42.50–$ 43.00, failing which it may drop to $ 40.50–$ 40.00. Copper stays constructive above $ 4.40 with scope to rise towards $ 4.70–$ 4.75, while Natural gas remains bullish for $ 3.10–$ 3.20.

Brent ($ 66.73) has broken below $ 67 and tested a low of $ 66.35 yesterday, contrary to expectations. Immediate support is seen near $ 66, and while this holds, we expect a bounce back towards $ 68–$ 70. Alternatively, a break below this would turn the outlook bearish and target $ 66–$ 64 on the downside.

WTI ($ 63.24) fell below $ 63 and tested a low of $ 62.72 yesterday. Immediate support is coming near $ 62, and if it holds, the price could rise towards $ 64–$ 66. Otherwise, a break below this could drag it further down to $ 60–$ 58.

Gold ($ 3,610.90) is hovering above $ 3,600 but must break above $ 3,650 to extend the bullish move towards $ 3,700–$ 3,800. Failure to do so could see a pullback towards $ 3,500–$ 3,400.

Silver ($ 41.48) dipped to a low of $ 41.07 yesterday. A sustained break above $ 42 is needed to rise towards $ 42.50–$ 43.00, else it may retreat towards $ 40.50–$ 40.00.

Copper ($ 4.58) has eased slightly but has immediate support near $ 4.40, above which the outlook remains positive for a rise towards $ 4.70–$ 4.75 in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.0860) has dipped slightly but the outlook stays bullish for a rise towards $ 3.10–$ 3.20 in the near term.

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU GDP
…Expectations 0.1 …Previous 0.1

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US NFP
81 …Expecatations 74 …Previous 73

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expecatations 4.3 …Previous 4.2

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.3 …Expecatations 0.3 …Previous 0.3

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.3

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 Australia Trade Balance A$ Bln
…Expectations 4.9 …Previous 5.4 …Actual 7.3

GMT 6:30 IST 12:00 CH CPI
0.6 …Expectations 0.0 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.2

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Retail Sales
0.6 …Expectations -0.2 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.2

GMT 12:15 IST 17:45 US ADP Emp
…Expectations 71.0 …Previous 106.0 …Actual 54

{GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectations -77.7 …Previous -59.1 …Actual -78.3