Weaker US NFP and higher US Unemployment pulled the Dollar index lower on Friday. Still, the Dollar Index, Euro and the EURINR continue to hold within the respective ranges of 97-99, 1.18-1.16 and 103.50-102.50 for now. EURJPY and USDJPY can trade within the 174-172 region 149-147/46 region, while below 174 and 149. USDCNY can soon test the support near 7.1300-7.1250 before attempting to bounce back again. The Aussie faces immediate resistance at 0.66, below which a pull back towards 0.655-0.6400 looks likely. If the Pound fails to sustain above can fall towards 1.34-1.33. USDINR can test 88.50 in the near term before declining a bit from there.

Weaker than expected US NFP at 22k (74k) and higher Unemployment at 4.3% (4.2%) led Dollar Index (97.84) to test 97.43 on Friday. Overall, the range of 97.50-99.00 remains intact for now. A decisive break on either side will be needed for further clarity.

EURUSD (1.1712) had risen past 1.17 to the high of 1.1759 on Dollar weakness. While below 1.18, a range of 1.18-1.16 is likely to persist for some time before a break happens.

EURINR (103.2904) looks stable above 103. Still a confirmed break past 103.50 will be needed to bring higher levels into picture. Else, it can continue to trade within the 103.50-102.50 region for now.

EURJPY (173.49) tested the resistance at 174 before coming down. The immediate range of 174-172 remains intact for now.

Dollar-Yen (148.11) is unable to witness a rise past 149 which is needed to bring 151-152 into picture. While below 149, the pair can trade within 149-147/146 region for a while before a break happens.

USDCNY (7.1320) has support coming around 7.1300-7.1250 which can be tested soon. Overall, the targets of 7.16-7.17 are kept open while the pair trades above 7.1250.

Aussie (0.6556) initially rose past 0.655, tested 0.6588 but could not sustain and started coming off. An interim resistance is coming at 0.66, while below it the pair can fall back towards 0.65-0.645 in the coming sessions. Only a break past 0.66 if seen can bring the upper resistance of 0.67 into picture but seems less likely.

Pound (1.3500) needs to see a sustained rise above 1.35 to rise towards 1.36-1.37, else any break below 1.35 can make it vulnerable to fall back towards 1.34-1.33 in the coming sessions.

USDINR (88.1430) is likely to test 88.50 in the near term. Thereafter, while the resistance at 88.50 holds, a dip to 88 can be seen before eventually heading towards 89 in the medium term.

The US Treasury yields have declined further as expected. Weak jobs data dragged the yields lower as the hopes for rate cuts increased. The US added just 22K jobs to its non-farm payroll. The Unemployment rate on the other hand increased to 4.3%. Failure to bounce back immediately can drag them further lower in the coming days. The German Yields have declined below their intermediate support. If this sustains more fall can be seen from here. That in turn will delay the rise that we have been expecting. The 10Yr GoI is coming down in line with our expectation. It can test its support and then possibly bounce back from there.

The US 10Yr (4.10%) and 30Yr (4.78%) Treasury yields have declined further as expected. The 10Yr has come down to 4.1% as expected. It has to sustain above 4.05% to avoid a deeper fall to 3.9%-3.8% and rise back to 4.2% again. The 30Yr can fall to 3.7%-3.68% if it fails to rise back above 3.8% immediately.

The German 10Yr (2.66%) and 30Yr (3.30%) yields have declined further. The 10Yr has dipped below its support of 2.7%/. While this sustains 2.6%-2.55% can be seen on the downside. The 30YR can fall to 3.25%-3.2% on a break below 3.28%. That will delay the rise to 2.9%-3% (10Yr) and 3.45%-3.5% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.4651%) is coming down towards 6.4% as expected. has declined below 6.5%. That keeps intact our view of seeing a fall to 6.4%. Thereafter a bounce to 6.45%-6.5% is possible.

Most equity indices are likely to be ranged for the near term. The Dow, Dax, Shanghai and Nifty can trade within 46000-45000, 23000-24500, 3700-4000 and 24400-24850/25000 respectively while Nikkei has jumped sharply today on news of PM Ishibu to step down. The index can test 44000-44500 soon.

The Dow (45400.86, -0.48%) dipped slightly. Immediate range of 46000-45000 can hold for the near term.

DAX (23596.98, -0.73%) has fallen back towards the support at 23500. A range of 23000/23500-24500 can hold for the near term.

Nifty (24741, +0.027%) is range bound within the range of 24400-24850/25000 and is likely to hold so for some more sessions.

Nikkei (43805.73, +1.83%) has jumped today after news of PM Ishiba set to step down. Nikkei can now target 44000-44500 in the near term if the rise continues.

Shanghai (3812.51, +1.24%) has moved up well today. We may expect trade within 3700-4000 to hold for the near term unless a breakout is seen on either side of the range.

Crude prices have weakened as Brent broke support to $ 65.07 and looks vulnerable to $ 64–$ 62, while WTI slipped to $ 61.45 with scope to fall further towards $ 60–$ 58. Gold is attempting to clear resistance at $ 3,650, and a sustained break could lift it towards $ 3,700–$ 3,800, though failure may drag it back to $ 3,600–$ 3,500. Silver stays weak below $ 42 with risks of $ 40.50–$ 40.00 unless it breaks higher towards $ 42.50–$ 43.00. Copper is under pressure and may dip to $ 4.40 before a possible rebound towards $ 4.70–$ 4.75. Natural Gas has risen and could extend gains towards $ 3.15–$ 3.20 in the near term.

Brent ($ 66.28) has broken support following reports that Saudi Arabia wants OPEC+ to accelerate production hikes. It tested a low of $ 65.07 on Friday and can decline further towards $ 64–$ 62 in the near term.

WTI ($ 62.60) has broken below immediate support and fell to a low of $ 61.45 on Friday. A further decline towards $ 60–$ 58 can be seen in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,631.50) is attempting to break above immediate resistance after testing a high of $ 3,655.50 on Friday. A sustained break above $ 3,650 would trigger further bullishness towards $ 3,700–$ 3,750–$ 3,800 in the coming weeks. However, if the resistance holds, a pullback towards $ 3,600–$ 3,500 cannot be ruled out.

Silver ($ 41.37) is holding below $ 42, and while it remains under this level, the price stays vulnerable to a decline towards $ 40.50–$ 40.00. A break above $ 42 is needed to revive the earlier expectation of a rise towards $ 42.50–$ 43.00.

Copper ($ 4.5685) is falling and can decline to test support at $ 4.40 in the near term before attempting a rise towards $ 4.70–$ 4.75 in the coming weeks.

Natural Gas ($ 3.1150) has risen and can move higher towards $ 3.15–$ 3.20 in the near term.

GMT 23:50 IST 05:20 JP GDP
…Previous 0.3%

DATA LAST FRIDAY
===============

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU GDP
…Expectations 0.1 …Previous 0.1 …Actual 0.1

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US NFP
81 …Expecatations 74 …Previous 73 …Actual 22

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expecatations 4.3 …Previous 4.2 …Actual 4.3

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.3 …Expecatations 0.3 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.3

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.4

{GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 CA Labour Force
…Expecatations 9.4 …Previous -40.8 …Actual -65.5