The Dollar Index continues to fall further. A test to 97.00-96.50 looks likely to happen before bouncing back later. The Euro on a break past 1.18 can head towards 1.19 as well. Else can continue to trade within the 1.18-1.16 region. EURINR needs to see a sustained rise above current levels to head towards 104 and higher. EURJPY and USDJPY can trade within the 174-172 region 149-146 region, while below 174 and 149. USDCNY is headed towards deeper support at 7.11 which can be tested soon in the near term. The Aussie faces immediate resistance at 0.66, break past which will be needed to bring 0.67 into picture. Else, a pull back towards 0.655-0.6400 is likely. The Pound has risen well and if sustained, can ascend towards 1.36-1.37 in the coming sessions. USDINR was closed yesterday.

Dollar Index (97.38) slipped below 97.50 and if the fall persists, can test the support around 97.00-96.50 in the near term before eventually rebounding higher. Note, a fall below 96 is not anticipated for now.

EURUSD (1.17731) is trading higher within its 1.16-1.18 range. A breach above 1.18 can take it higher to 1.19 as well. Immediate support at 1.17.

EURINR (103.6024) is hovering near the resistance around current levels, break past which can take it towards 104 or higher in the near term. Consequently, failing to do so can keep the 103.50-102.50 range intact. Watch price action closely.

EURJPY (173.36) is holding the immediate range of 174-172, which can persist in the near term before a break happens on either side.

Dollar-Yen (147.25) is coming off and a break below 147 can take it lower to test the support at 146. Immediate range of 149-146 can hold for some time.

USDCNY (7.1230) has slipped below 7.1250 and can test the deeper support at 7.11 before attempting to rise back again in the near term.

Aussie (0.66) is trading near resistance at 0.66. A hold below this level could trigger a dip to 0.65–0.645, while a break higher may target 0.67. The bias stays bullish, but confirmation above 0.66 is needed for a rise towards 0.67.

Pound (1.3567) has indeed risen further and if sustained, can test 1.36-1.37 in the coming sessions before halting. Near term support at 1.34.

USDINR (88.1430) was closed yesterday on the account of Eid. We retain our view that the pair can test 88.50 in the near term. Thereafter, while the resistance at 88.50 holds, a dip to 88 can be seen before eventually heading towards 89 in the medium term.

The US Treasury and the German yields are coming down. The Treasury yields look vulnerable to fall more. The German yields on the other hand can also fall more from here. However, key supports are coming up for them. They have to rise back from there to avoid a deeper fall and negate our broader bullish view. The 10Yr GoI was closed yesterday. It can fall to test its support in the near term and then possibly bounce back again.

The US 10Yr (4.05%) and 30Yr (4.69%) Treasury yields have come down further. The 10Yr has to rise back immediately to avoid a deeper fall to 3.9%-3.8%. The 30Yr can test 4.65% – an important support from where it has to bounce back to avoid more fall.

The German 10Yr (2.64%) and 30Yr (3.26%) yields continue to fall. The 10Yr is heading down towards 2.6%-2.55% as expected. The 30Yr can fall to 3.2%. The earlier view of seeing a rise to 2.9%-3% (10Yr) and 3.45%-3.5% (30Yr) is getting delayed now.

The 10Yr GoI (6.4651%) was closed yesterday. IT can fall to 6.4% while below 6.5%.

Most equity indices are likely to be ranged for the near term and await a breakout for further broad directional view. The Dow is headed towards resistance at 46000 while Dax has very near term resistance just above current levels and needs to break above 23800/850 to rise further towards 24000-24500. Shanghai and Nifty can head towards 3900 and 24850-25000 respectively. Nikkei continues to rise today and can head towards 44500-45000 soon.

The Dow (45514.95, +0.25%) is headed towards immediate resistance near 46000 from where a dip looks possible towards 45000 in the near term.

DAX (23807.13, +0.89%) needs to break above 23800-23850 to rise further towards 24000-24500 in the coming days else, failure to rise from current levels can again drag it lower towards 23500/23000.

Nifty (24773.15, +0.13%) was slightly up yesterday but is likely to trade within the range of 24400-24850/25000 for now.

Nikkei (44091.99, +1.03%) has risen above 44000 as expected and could soon rise further towards 44500-45000 from where a rejection can be possible.

Shanghai (3826.84, +0.38%) is holding well above support at 3700 and could have scope to move up towards 3900-4000 in the coming days. A range of 3700-4000 may continue to hold for now till a breakout is seen on either side of the range.  

Crude prices remain weak with Brent vulnerable to a fall towards $ 64–$ 62 while below $ 67 and WTI likely to decline towards $ 60–$ 58 while under $ 64. Gold has turned strongly bullish after breaking above $ 3,650 and testing a new all-time high of $ 3,685.70, with scope to rise further towards $ 3,700–$ 3,800. Silver is struggling below $ 42 and remains exposed to a dip towards $ 40.50–$ 40.00 unless it breaks higher, while Copper has bounced from $ 4.5255 and can rise towards $ 4.70–$ 4.80, holding immediate support near $ 4.40. Natural Gas stays firm after testing $ 3.1980 and can extend gains towards $ 3.20–$ 3.25.

Brent ($ 66.28) remains vulnerable to a fall towards $ 64–$ 62 in the near term while it stays below $ 67.

WTI ($ 62.50) can decline towards $ 60–$ 58 in the near term while trading below $ 64.

Gold ($ 3,691.80) has broken above the crucial resistance at $ 3,650 and tested a fresh all-time high of $ 3,685.70 yesterday. It now looks bullish towards $ 3,700–$ 3,750–$ 3,800 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 42) is hovering below $ 42, and while it remains under this level, the price stays vulnerable to a decline towards $ 40.50–$ 40.00. A break above $ 42 is needed to revive the earlier expectation of a rise towards $ 42.50–$ 43.00.

Copper ($ 4.5795) has bounced back from the low of $ 4.5255. Immediate support is seen near $ 4.40. It can either test this support and then rise towards $ 4.70–$ 4.80, or else rise directly from current levels.

Natural Gas ($ 3.08) tested a high of $ 3.1980 in line with our expectations and can rise further towards $ 3.20–$ 3.25 in the near term.

NO MAJOR DATA RELEASE TODAY.

DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 23:50 IST 05:20 JP GDP
…Expectations 0.3% …Previous 0.3% …Actual 0.5%