The Dollar Index has bounced well from the low of 97.25. Still a break past 98 will be needed to open the doors for 99-100 in the near term. The Euro is coming off within its 1.18-1.16 range. EURINR has slipped below 103.50 and is back within its 103.50-10.250 range. EURJPY and USDJPY can trade within the 174-172 region 146-148/49 region, while below 174 and 149. USDCNY has bounced from, 71,2 and a break past 7.13 can take it towards 7.15-7.16 in the near term. The Aussie needs to hold above 0.66 to test 0.67, else it is likely to fall back towards 0.655-0.6400. The Pound tested 1.3590 as anticipated and can trade within 1.36/37-1.34 region in the near term. USDINR above 88 can rise towards 88.35-88.50 in the coming sessions. US PPI Data release is scheduled today.

Dollar Index (97.816) rebounded from 97.25 to current levels, offering some relief. However, a decisive break above 98 is needed to open the upside towards 99–100. Else, while below 98, the pair can be vulnerable to fall back towards 97 or even 96. Watch price action closely around current levels.

EURUSD (1.1704) is retreating from 1.1779 and testing support at 1.17. A failure to hold could push it down to 1.16 before any rebound towards 1.18 or higher takes place.

EURINR (103.1640) failed to sustain its rise past 103.50 and started coming off from 103.7914 itself. While below 103.50, it is likely to consolidate within the 103.50–102.50 range until a breakout occurs.

EURJPY (173.36) is trading near the lower end of its narrow range of 174-172. Any breach below 172 can drag it further to the support coming at 170 before attempting to rise back again.

Dollar-Yen (147.31) has recovered well from the low of 146.307. While the support near 146 holds, USDJPY can trade within the 146-148/49 region for some time.

USDCNY (7.1262) bounced from 7.12 instead of testing 7.11. A break above 7.13 is needed to turn the outlook bullish for 7.15–7.16. Failing to do so can make it test 7.11 initially before it attempts to rise back again.

Aussie (0.6595) needs to sustain above 0.66 to head towards 0.664-0.670 in the coming sessions. Else, a hold below 0.66 could trigger a fall to 0.65–0.645. Watch price action closely to determine where the pair might be headed.

Pound (1.3520) tested 1.3590 before coming down. Overall, the pair is likely to trade within 1.36/37-1.34 region in the near term before a break is seen.

USDINR (88.1440) rose to 88.1825 and closed higher at 88.1075 on the OTC. For now, bias remains positive to see a further rise towards 88.35- 88.50 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have risen back. If this sustains, they can rise more in the coming days which in turn will ease the danger of seeing a deeper fall. The US CPI data release tomorrow will be important to watch. The German yields have inched up. But there is room to fall back and test their support before the broader uptrend resumes. The ECB meeting outcome tomorrow has to be watched. The 10Yr GoI has risen back well ahead of its support. Further rise is possible if this sustains. Broadly, the 10Yr GoI can oscillate in a range for some time.

The US 10Yr (4.09%) and 30Yr (4.73%) Treasury yields have bounced back. If they sustain above 4.05% (10Yr) and 4.65% (30Yr), a rise back to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) is possible in the near term.

The German 10Yr (2.66%) and 30Yr (3.28%) yields have inched up. But while below 2.7% (30Yr) and 3.25% (30Yr), a fall to 2.6%-2.55% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr) can be seen first. Thereafter a reversal is possible to keep the broader uptrend intact.

The 10Yr GoI (6.4942%) has risen back sharply, well ahead of 6.4%. If this sustains, a rise to 6.55%-6.6% can be seen. Broadly, 6.4%-6.6% can be the trading range for now.

The Dow Jones moved up yesterday after downward revision of US labor data that showed a weaker labor market for the 12-months up to Mar-25. Dow can test 46000 before seeing a dip to 45000. Dax can dip to 23500 or lower while below 23800/850. Nifty has moved up well to close above 24850 yesterday. If the rise continues, we may expect a test of 25000 soon. Nikkei has dipped below 44000 but needs to rise back soon to prevent a fall towards 430000 and instead head towards 44000-44500. Shanghai can head towards 3900-4000 soon.

The Dow (45711.34, +0.43%) moved up yesterday after a steeper downward revision was done to US job numbers that indicated weaker labor in the 12-months (upto Mar-25), indicating continued rate cuts from the FED ahead. A rise to immediate resistance at 46000 looks possible before any dip from there is seen back to 45000.

DAX (23718.45, -0.37%) dipped yesterday. We may expect trade within 23850-23500/23000 to continue for now. A decisive break above 23850 is needed to take it further up towards 24000-24500.

Nifty (24868.60, +0.39%) moved up to close above 24850 yesterday. Continued rise of seen today can take it higher towards 25000.

Nikkei (43598.64, +0.32%) has dipped slightly below 44000 as it could not sustain the rise above 44000. A sharp rise above 44000 will be needed for the index to test 44500-45000 before facing any rejection from there.

Shanghai (3822.28, +0.39%) is holding above 3800 and could have scope to move up towards 3900-4000 in the coming days. A broad range of 3700-4000 may continue to hold for now till a breakout is seen on either side of the range.  

Brent remains weak and could slip towards $ 64–$ 62 while below $ 67, with WTI also vulnerable to a fall towards $ 60–$ 58 if it stays under $ 64. Gold continues to show strong momentum after making a fresh record high and has room to rise further towards $ 3750–$ 3800, while Silver is stuck in a tight $ 42–$ 41 range and needs a breakout for clearer direction. Copper may test support near $ 4.4 before bouncing towards $ 4.7–$ 4.8, though a direct rise cannot be ruled out. Natural gas looks poised to head higher towards $ 3.20–$ 3.25 in the near term.

Brent ($ 66.84) saw a slight dip yesterday, but the outlook remains weak with potential to fall towards $ 64–$ 62 in the near term while it stays below $ 67.

WTI ($ 63.13) has risen slightly but can decline towards $ 60–$ 58 in the near term while trading below $ 64.

Gold ($ 3,669.70) tested a fresh all-time high of $ 3,715.20 yesterday, in line with our expectations. A further rise towards $ 3,750–$ 3,800 can take place in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 41.43) has been trading in a narrow range of $ 42–$ 41 for the last few sessions. It needs to break out on either side of this range to give more clarity on direction.

Copper ($ 4.5720) can test its support at $ 4.40 and then rise towards $ 4.70–$ 4.80, or else rise directly from current levels.

Natural Gas ($ 3.09) can rise towards $ 3.20–$ 3.25 in the near term.

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 CN CPI (YoY)
…Expectations -0.2 …Previous 0.0

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 CN PPI
…Expectations -2.9 …Previous -3.6

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US PPI
…Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.9

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
…Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.9

DATA YESTERDAY
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NO MAJOR DATA RELEASE YESTERDAY.