The Dollar Index can head towards 99-100 in the near term on a confirmed break above 98. The Euro and EURINR are moving within their respective ranges of 1.18-1.16 and 103.50-102.50. EURJPY needs to bounce from support at 172 to keep the 172-174 range intact, while USDJPY can trade within the 146-149 region. USDCNY is headed towards deeper support at 7.11. The Aussie dollar has scope to rise towards 0.67 while it remains above 0.660-0.655. The Pound can trade within the 1.36-1.34 region for some time. USDINR, above 88, can rise towards 88.35-88.50 in the coming sessions. ECB meeting and the US CPI data is scheduled for release today.

Dollar Index (97.831) needs to see a decisive break above 98 is needed to open the upside towards 99–100. Else, while below 98, the pair can be vulnerable to fall back towards 97 or even 96.

EURUSD (1.1697) and EURINR (103.0679) are slowly inching lower. An immediate range of 1.18-1.16 and 103.50-102.50 can persist in the near term until a breakout occurs.

EURJPY (172.41) needs to rebound from the interim support at 172 to keep the 172-174 range intact. Else, any breach below 172 can drag it further to the deeper support coming at 170 before attempting to rise back again.

Dollar-Yen (147.39) remained stable above 147 yesterday. While the support near 146 holds, USDJPY can trade within the 146-148/49 region for some time.

USDCNY (7.1200) started coming off from 7.13 itself and is likely to test 7.11 before bouncing back again. A break above 7.1250 will be needed to turn the outlook bullish for 7.15–7.16 in the medium term.

Aussie (0.6615) tested the high of 0.6635 before declining a bit. Still, while above 0.660-0.655, the target of 0.67 is kept alive.

Pound (1.3522) continues to trade within the 1.36-1.34 region which is likely to persist in the near term.

USDINR (88.0910) has immediate support coming at 88, above which we retain our view of seeing a further rise towards 88.35- 88.50 in the coming sessions.

The US Treasury yields have come down again. Failure to get a strong rise from here will keep alive the danger of seeing more fall going forward. The US CPI data release today will need a close watch. A high inflation number will aid the Treasury yields to go higher. The German Yields remain lower and stable. They have room on the downside to test their support. After that the broader uptrend can resume. The ECB meeting outcome today is important to watch. The 10Yr GoI has come down again. It can oscillate in a sideways range for some time.

The US 10Yr (4.04%) and 30Yr (4.70%) Treasury yields have come down again. The 10Yr has to breach 4.1% to go up to 4.2%. Else the danger of a fall to 3.9% will remain alive. The 30Yr on the other hand has to sustain above 4.65% to avoid a deeper fall to 4.5%.

The German 10Yr (2.65%) and 30Yr (3.27%) yields remain lower but stable. A dip to 2.55% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr) is likely while below 2.7% (30Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr). Thereafter the yields can reverse higher and resume the broader uptrend.

The 10Yr GoI (6.4790%) has come off from the high of 6.5277%. We expect the yield to oscillate between 6.4% and 6.6% for some time. The bias is bearish to see a downside break of this range.

Concerns over a softening US labor market and higher possibilities of FED rate cuts have turned the equity market mixed with all eyes on the crucial US inflation data and ECB policy meeting due today. Dow Jones can test 46000 while Dax can dip to 23500 before rebounding from there. Nifty could attempt to rise and sustain above 25000 while Nikkei can continue to rise towards 44500. Shanghai, if breaks below 3800 can move back to the broader range of 3700-4000 and hold on to it for a few weeks.

The Dow (45490.92, -0.48%) has fallen ahead of the US inflation data release due today. It can rise towards immediate resistance at 46000 before any dip from there is seen back to 45000.

DAX (23632.95, -0.36%) dipped ahead of the ECB policy meeting today. A test of 23500 can be possible before a rise back towards 24000-24500 is seen again.

Nifty (24973.10, +0.42%) crossed 25000 yesterday but could not sustain the rise and closed below it. It can move above 25000 today also but it has to be seen if the rise can sustain in the near term. While above 24850, 25000-25250 could be tested soon.

Nikkei (44186.41, +0.80%) has moved up further while above 44000 and can soon target 44500-45000 before facing any rejection from there. 

Shanghai (3806.06, -0.16%) has fallen in the morning trade today. A break below 3800 will bring it back to the broader range of 3700-4000 for the near term.

Brent and WTI have risen but both face resistance, with Brent likely to reverse from $ 68.00/$ 68.50 towards $ 65–$ 64 and WTI vulnerable to fall towards $ 60–$ 58 while below $ 64. Gold remains bullish for a rise to $ 3,750–$ 3,800, Silver is expected to consolidate within $ 42–$ 41 until a breakout gives direction. Copper has bounced back with potential to climb towards $ 4.70–$ 4.80, and Natural Gas is weakening against expectations and could slide further towards $ 3.00–$ 2.80 while below $ 3.20.

Brent ($ 67.50) has risen but faces immediate resistance near $ 68.00/$ 68.50, which could hold and push the price lower towards $ 65–$ 64 in the near term.

WTI ($ 63.68) has inched up slightly, but while it remains below $ 64, we maintain our view of a decline towards $ 60–$ 58 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,681.40) stays bullish with scope to rise towards $ 3,750–$ 3,800 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 41.67) may continue consolidating within the $ 42–$ 41 range until a breakout on either side provides clarity on direction.

Copper ($ 4.6055) has bounced back and looks set to rise further towards $ 4.70–$ 4.80 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.0280) is falling contrary to expectations and could decline towards $ 3.00–$ 2.80 in the near term while it stays below $ 3.20.

GMT 11:45 IST 17:15 ECB Mtg
…Expectations 2.15 …Previous 2.15

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
0.0 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.2

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
0.3 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.3

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 CN CPI (YoY)
…Expectations -0.2 …Previous 0.0 …Actual -0.4

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 CN PPI
…Expectations -2.9 …Previous -3.6 …Actual -2.9

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US PPI
…Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.9 …Actual -0.1

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
…Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.9 …Actual -0.1