Lower US Unemployment claims at 231k (241k expected) & greater Philifed Index at 23.2 (1.7 expected) supported the strength in Dollar. The Dollar Index has risen but is facing immediate resistance; a clear break above this level could target 98–99 next. The Euro below 1.19 can target 1.17 or even 1.16 in the near term, while EURINR can continue to consolidate between 104.50-103.00 region. EURJPY has risen past 174 and if sustained, can ascend towards 176-178 in the medium term. USDJPY needs to breach 148 level to rise towards 150-152. USDCNY is slowly inching higher and the pair can target 7.125 and higher levels, while above 7.10. The Aussie has immediate support at 0.66, need to se whether it holds or not. Pound has a scope to extend the fall to 1.345/34 before halting. USDINR has risen past 88 and a break above 88.25 could bring 88.50 into picture. Watch out for the BOJ meeting scheduled today.

Dollar Index (97.462) has moved higher but faces immediate resistance just above current levels, break past which is needed to target 98–99. Ese, If resistance holds, a pullback to 97–96 is possible. The broader outlook stays bullish while above 96.

EURUSD (1.1775) is coming off as anticipated and while below 1.19, a pull back towards 1.17 or to the deeper support at 1.16 is possible in the near term.

EURINR (103.8318) continues to consolidate between 104.50-103.50/103.00 region. A clear breakout on the either side will be needed to determine where the cross might be headed.

EURJPY (174.32) has finally risen past 174 and if sustained, can test the upper targets of 176-178 in the medium term.

Dollar-Yen (147.99) is rising in line with our view but a strong break past 148 will be needed to head towards 150-152 in the coming weeks. Watch out for the BOJ meeting wherein it is expected to maintain the policy rate at 0.50%.

USDCNY (7.1141) is slowly inching higher and while above 7.11/10, the pair can ascend towards 7.125 and higher levels in the coming sessions.

Aussie (0.6609) tested 0.66 as anticipated, with immediate support emerging near current levels. The next move hinges on whether this support holds for a rebound toward 0.67 or if the decline continues. Near-term upside looks capped at 0.670–0.675.

Pound (1.3538) is nearing the support around 1.3450-1.340 which can be tested soon in the near term. Overall, outlooks appears bearish below 1.36.

USDINR (88.0770) rose above 88 to the high of 88.1575 before closing lower. A break above 88.25 would open the way to 88.50 and higher. Surpassing 88.25 would also reduce the risk of a decline to the 87.50–87.25 zone, keeping the targets open for now.

The US Treasury yields continue to move up. There is room to rise further to test their resistance. Failure to breach the resistance can drag the yields down again. The German Yields have risen sharply. But resistance is ahead which has to be broken to avoid the fall that we have been expecting. The 10Yr GoI is moving up within the range. For now the sideways range is intact.

The US 10Yr (4.11%) and 30Yr (4.73%) Treasury yields have risen further. A test of 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) is possible now. The price action thereafter will need a watch for a downward reversal again.

The German 10Yr (2.72%) and 30Yr (3.31%) yields have risen sharply. Resistance at 2.75% (10Yr) and 3.35% (30Yr) has to be breached to negate the fall to 2.6%-2.55% (10Yr) and 3.2%-3.15% (30Yr) that we have been expecting. We will have to wait and watch.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5139%) is rising within the 6.45%-6.55% range. 6.4%-6.6% can possibly be a wider range of trade. The range is intact for now. We retain our bearish bias to break the range on the downside eventually.

Most indices have risen well but could face immediate resistances above current levels. The Dow has risen well but needs to break above 46500 to turn further bullish for the near term. The DAX has also risen well and can test 24000-24500 before facing any rejection. Nifty too is headed towars resistance at 25500 which needs to be breached to establish a bullish momentum for the coming weeks. Nikkei is positive towards 46000 while Shanghai looks stuck within the 3800-3950 region for now.

The Dow (46142.42, +0.27%) has risen well yesterday but has some scope that it may face rejection from anywhere between current levels and 46500. Once this level is decisively breached, we may expect the index to establish a near term bullish momentum. Till then there could be some chances of a near term decline.

DAX (23674.53, +1.35%) has risen well yesterday. A rise to test 24000-24500 looks possible in the near term before any rejection is seen from there.

Nifty (25423.60, +0.37%) has risen well to teste the resistance near 25450-25500 region. It would be crucial to see if the level holds and produces and rejection back towards 25200-25000 or if the index manages to rise past it to establish a rising momentum for the upcoming sessions. Watch price action near the mentioned resistance zone.

Nikkei (45633.01, +0.73%) is rising sharply today. Having broken above 45500, the index is headed towards 46000 in the near term. Note that 46000 is a crucial trend resistance and can produce a rejection back towards 45000 or lower in the coming weeks.

Shanghai (3831.66, -1.15%) has been stable and trading within the 3800-3950 region. We may expect range trade to continue for some more time.

Brent and WTI remain mixed with Brent needing a break above $ 68 to rise towards $ 70–72 or else risk $ 66–64, while WTI must clear $ 64 to aim for $ 66–68 else fall to $ 62–60. Gold holds above support for a bounce to $ 3,750–3,800 while Silver has rebounded from $ 41.50 with potential for a rise towards $ 42.50–43.00. Copper stays weak towards $ 4.55. Natural Gas can dip further to $ 2.90–2.80.

Brent ($ 67.51) has dipped slightly. The outlook remains mixed for now, with a sustained break above $ 68 needed for a rise towards $ 70–72. Failure to do so could lead to a break below $ 67 and a decline towards $ 66–64.

WTI ($ 63.29) has also dipped slightly, keeping the view mixed. A break above $ 64 is required for a rise towards $ 66–68, while a fall below $ 63 could drag it down towards $ 62–60.

Gold ($ 3,678.70) is holding above immediate support, and while this sustains, we expect a bounce back towards $ 3,750–3,800 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 42.16) tested $ 41.50 yesterday and bounced back to close above $ 42. If $ 41.50 holds, we could see a further rise towards $ 42.50–43.00 in the near term, negating the earlier view of a fall to $ 41–40.

Copper ($ 4.6055) has declined in line with expectations and could fall further towards $ 4.55 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 2.9370) has dipped as expected and can decline further towards $ 2.90–2.80 in the near term.

GMT 23:05 IST 04:35 UK Cons Conf
…Expectations -18 …Previous -17

GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP CPI
3.1 …Expectations 2.7 …Previous 3.0

GMT 3:00 IST 08:30 BOJ Meeting
…Expectations 0.50 …Previous 0.50

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 Australia Labour Force K
…Expectations 21.2 …Previous 24.5 …Actual -5.4

GMT 11:00 IST 16:30 BOE Mtg %
…Expectations 4.00 …Previous 4.00 …Actual 4.00

GMT 11:00 IST 16:30 UK BOE Minutes
…Expectations 0-1-8 …Previous 0-5-4 …Actual 0-2-7

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Philifed Index
…Expectations 1.4 …Previous -0.3 …Actual 23.2

GMT 13:00 IST 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec) $ Bln
…Previous 151.0 …Actual 49.2