The Dollar Index can trade within 98-96/95 region for some time. While the Euro can ascend towards 1.19-1.20 while above 1.17.EURINR continues to hold the 103.00-104.50 range for now. EURJPY needs to breach 174.50 to head towards 176-178, else can fall back towards 172. USDJPY is holding well below 148.50 and has a scope to extend the fall towards 147-146 respectively. USDCNY on a confirmed rise past 7.12 can head towards 7.14, else can consolidate between 7.12-7.10. Aussie and Pound above 0.655 and 1.345 can attempt to bounce back towards 0.66 and 1.36 and higher levels respectively in the near term. USDINR on a sustained rise past 88.35 can extend the rise to 88.50–88.75. US Current Account data release is scheduled today.

Dollar Index (97.750) is holding well below 98 as a test to 97.82 was seen before turning lower. The near-term range of 98 to 96/95 is expected to hold, with a medium-term bullish bias intact.

EURUSD (1.1807) is rising as anticipated and if sustained, can head towards 1.19-1.20 before halting.

EURINR (104.34) is trading higher within its 103.00-104.50 range. A clear breakout on either side will be needed to determine where the cross might be headed.

EURJPY (174.42) limited the downside to 173.70 itself and started rising again. A breach past 174.50-175.00 can open the doors for 176-178 in the coming weeks. Overall, the downside can be limited to 172 for now.

Dollar-Yen (147.74) has turned lower from 148.37 as expected, While below 148.50, a further dip looks likely in the near term towards 147-146.

USDCNY (7.1128) needs to rise past 7.12 to head towards 7.14, else it can continue to consolidate between 7.12-7.10 in the coming sessions.

Aussie (0.6581) is approaching support near 0.655, which may be tested soon. If this level holds, a rebound toward 0.66 and higher is possible in the near term.

Pound (1.3508) has recovered well from the low of 1.3450 and while above it, the pair can attempt to rise back towards 1.36 and above in the coming sessions.

USDINR (88.3090) was expected to head towards 88.35, in line with that, a high of 88.34 was observed yesterday. Now, a sustained break above 88.35 can extend the rise towards 88.50–88.75.

The US Treasury yields remain higher and stable. They can rise further to test their resistance. Whether they manage to breach the resistance or not will then determine the move thereafter. The German yields are at their key resistance. A strong follow-through rise from here will be bullish. It will indicate the resumption of the broader uptrend and will take them further higher. The 10Yr GoI is coming down within its narrow range. Outlook continues to remain mixed and range bound.

The US 10Yr (4.15%) and 30Yr (4.76%) Treasury yields remain higher and stable. They can test 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr). Thereafter we have to see if the rise is getting extended or a reversal is happening.

The German 10Yr (2.75%) and 30Yr (3.35%) yields are at their crucial resistance. A decisive break above it can take the yields up to 2.85% (10Yr) and 3.45% (30Yr). That will confirm the resumption of the broader uptrend.

The 10Yr GoI (6.4871%) remains lower within the narrow 6.45%-6.55% range. Outlook continues to remain mixed. 6.4%-6.6% can be a slightly wider trading range.

The Dow has risen slightly but needs to break above resistance at 46500 to turn further bullish for the near term else can dip back towards 45500-45000. The DAX on the other hand has dipped as expected and an initial dip is possible to 23500-23000. Nifty has dipped and while below resistance at 25500, a fall to 25000-24800 is likely. Nikkei needs to breach 45860 to rise towards 46000 else can decline to 45000-44800 region while Shanghai sustains trade below 3850 and can test 3800-3750 before moving higher in the longer run. 

The Dow (46381.54, +0.14%) is headed towards resistance near 46500 which if holds can produce a dip towards 45500-45000 initially before resuming the longer term uptrend. Failure to see any rejection from 46500 can continue the current upmove targeting 47000-48000 in the coming 1-2 weeks. Watch price action in the next few sessions.

DAX (23527.05, -0.48%) has dipped as expected. It can dip to 23500-23000 in the next few sessions before bouncing back towards 24000-24500.

Nifty (25202.35, -0.49%) has dipped as expected and while below resistance near 25500 on the weekly candles, a dip to 25000 or lower to 24500 looks possible in the near term.

Nikkei (45493.66, +0.99%) has risen slightly but has immediate resistance near 45860 below which there can be a dip towards 45000-44800 region.

Shanghai (3813.12, -0.40%) continues to trade below 3850 and could have scope to re-test 3800-3750 region before attempting to rise back in the medium term.

Brent and WTI remain under pressure with scope to fall towards $ 65–64 and $ 60 respectively, as sentiment was further weighed by news that Iraq and the Kurdistan regional government agreed to resume oil exports via a pipeline to Turkey after a two-year halt. Gold is nearing $ 3,800 with potential to extend towards $ 3,900–4,000 if it breaks higher. Silver is attempting to clear $ 44 to open the way for $ 45–46, Copper has bounced from $ 4.60 and could rise to $ 4.70–4.75, while Natural Gas near $ 2.80 risks a fall to $ 2.60 if support breaks, else a rebound to $ 3.0–3.2 is possible.

Brent ($ 66.39) is declining in line with our expectations as it was under pressure on the outlook for additional global oil supplies after Iraq said it agreed to terms with the regional government of Kurdistan to resume oil exports via a pipeline to Turkey that had been halted over the past two years. A further fall towards $ 65–64 can be in the near term.

WTI ($ 62.16) has fallen as expected and can decline further towards $ 60 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,793.0) is moving up sharply and can soon test $ 3,800. Thereafter, we need to see whether it breaks above $ 3,800 and extends the rise towards $ 3,900–4,000 or turns lower towards $ 3,700–3,600. Our preferred view is for a break on the higher side.

Silver ($ 44.32) is attempting to break above the immediate resistance near $ 44. A sustained break would open the way for a rise towards $ 45–46 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.6425) has bounced back from $ 4.60 and while it holds, a further rise towards $ 4.70–4.75 can be seen in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 2.7970) tested $ 2.80 yesterday as mentioned. A further break below $ 2.80, if seen, could drag the price down to $ 2.60. Else, if $ 2.80 holds, a bounce back towards $ 3.0–3.2 can be seen.

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Current Account Balance
…Expectations -273.0 …Previous -450.2

DATA YESTERDAY
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NO MAJOR DATA RELEASED YESTERDAY.