The Dollar Index is gradually coming off within its 98-96/95 range which can hold for some time. The Euro can ascend towards 1.19-1.20 while above 1.17. EURINR on a break past 105 can head towards 105.50-106.00. EURJPY needs to breach 174.50 to head towards 176-178, else can fall back towards 172. USDJPYhas a scope to extend the fall towards 147-146 respectively. USDCNY continues to consolidate between 7.12-7.10. Aussie and Pound above 0.655 and 1.345 can attempt to bounce back towards 0.66 and 1.36 and higher levels respectively in the near term. USDINR tested 88.7975 yesterday. A further rise to 88.85-89.00 looks possible before getting peaked out. German IFO and US New Home Sales data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (97.335) is slowly inching lower and a range of 98 to 96/95 is expected to hold, with a medium-term bullish bias intact.

EURUSD (1.1799) is rising as anticipated and while above 1.17, a test to 1.19-1.20 can happen before halting.

EURINR (104.75) after breaking out of the 103.00-104.50 range, the pair reached a high of 104.9448 before pulling back. A decisive move above 105 would open the way for 105.50-106.00; otherwise, a retreat towards 104.50-103.50 could follow.

EURJPY (174.36) on a breach past 174.50-175.00 can head towards 176-178 in the coming weeks. Overall, the downside can be limited to 172 for now.

Dollar-Yen (147.77) can test 147-146 in the coming sessions while below 148.50.

USDCNY (7.1152) continues to consolidate between 7.12-7.10 region. Only a rise past 7.12 can open the doors for 7.14, else USDNCY can remain ranged.

Aussie (0.6616) was expected to test 0.655 but instead it rose back from 0.6581 itself. While the support near 0.655 holds, the pair can attempt to rise back towards 0.6650-0.670 in the coming sessions.

Pound (1.3514) can attempt to rise back towards 1.36 and higher while it sustains above 1.3450.

USDINR (88.7250) yesterday tested 88.7975 in line with our bullish view. A further rise towards 88.85-89.00 looks likely in the near term before any reversal sets in.

The US Treasury yields have reversed lower again. Failure to sustain above their immediate support will negate the rise that we had expected. That in turn can drag the yields lower again. The German yields continue to hover near their crucial resistance. They have to breach this hurdle decisively to go higher and avoid falling back. The 10Yr GoI is coming down within its narrow range. For now, the sideways range is intact.

The US 10Yr (4.10%) and 30Yr (4.72%) Treasury yields have turned down. Support at 4.08%-4.06 (10Yr) and 4.69% (30Yr) has to hold to keep alive the chances of the rise to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr). Else the yields can fall to 4% (10Yr), 4.6% (30Yr) and even lower again. We will have to wait and see.

The German 10Yr (2.75%) and 30Yr (3.34%) yields remain stable at their crucial resistance. A strong follow-through rise from here is needed to see 2.85% (10Yr) and 3.45% (30Yr) and higher levels.

The 10Yr GoI (6.4729%) is coming down within the narrow 6.45%-6.55% range. For now, the range is intact, and the outlook remains mixed. 6.4%-6.6% can be a slightly wider trading range.

Most indices have dipped. The Dow, Nifty, Nikkei and Shanghai have dipped while the Dax has risen slightly. There can be scope of near term fall in the Dow, Nifty, Nikkei and Shanghai towards 45500-45000, 25000-24800, 45000-44800 and 3800-3750 respectively. The DAX on the other hand has slightly moved up and needs to see a decisive break above 23650 to test 24000-24500 on the upside. Else it can fall back towards 23500-23000.

The Dow (46292.78, -0.19%) has dipped slightly. While below resistance at 46500 we may look for a dip towards 45500-45000 initially before resuming the longer term uptrend. A decisive break above 46500 is needed to take the index towards 47000-48000 in the coming weeks.

DAX (23611.33, +0.36%) has risen slightly but needs a decisive break above 23650 to move up further to 24000-24500. Else we may expect another dip back towards 23500-23000. Watch price action in the next couple of sessions.

Nifty (25169.50, -0.13%) has continued to decline while the weekly resistance near 25500 holds well. The dip may continue and a further decline towards 25000 or lower to 24500 looks possible in the near term.

Nikkei (45440.20, -0.12%) has dipped as expected. While below 45860, there can be a dip towards 45000-44800 region.

Shanghai (3821.8312, -0.18%) has tested 3774 so far but continues to trade lower, below 3850. We may expect the 3800-3750 range to continue for some more time.

Brent and WTI rebounded sharply from recent lows on concerns over Russian crude supplies, but both face key resistances at $ 68 and $ 64 respectively, which need to break for further upside towards $ 70-72 and $ 66-68. Gold tested $ 3,824.60 and must hold above it to target $ 3,900-4,000 else risks a dip to $ 3,700-3,600, while Silver remains bullish towards $ 45-46 despite a softer open. Copper stays firm above $ 4.60 with scope for $ 4.70-4.75. Natural Gas has gapped higher but needs a break above $ 3.20 to extend gains to $ 3.30-3.40, else risks sliding back to $ 3.00-2.80.

Brent ($ 67.74) tested a low of $ 66.10 and bounced back sharply to close at $ 67.63 yesterday on concerns about Russian crude supplies after NATO promised a robust response to Russian incursions into its airspace. While resistance at $ 68 holds, it can pull back towards $ 67-66. A sustained break above $ 68 is needed to open the way for a rise towards $ 70-72 in the coming weeks.

WTI ($ 63.63) tested a low of $ 61.85 and bounced back sharply to close at $ 63.41 yesterday. Immediate resistance is near $ 64, which if it holds can push the price down to $ 62-61. A break above $ 64 would instead take it higher towards $ 66-68.

Gold ($ 3,787.10) as expected tested a high of $ 3,824.60 yesterday but it needs to sustain above this level to extend the bullish momentum towards $ 3,900-4,000. If $ 3,824.60 holds as resistance, a corrective dip towards $ 3,700-3,600 is possible in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 44.06) rose to a high of $ 44.77 yesterday in line with expectations. It opened lower at $ 44.27 today, but the outlook stays bullish towards $ 45-46 in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.6365) can rise towards $ 4.70-4.75 in the near term while above $ 4.60.

Natural Gas ($ 3.1440) found support near $ 2.80 and bounced slightly to $ 2.87 yesterday. Today it opened sharply higher with a gap up at $ 3.1450, but it must break above $ 3.20 to see a further rise towards $ 3.30-3.40 in the near term. Otherwise, it remains vulnerable to a fall back towards $ 3.00-2.80.

GMT 8:00 IST 13:30 GER IFO Business Climate
…Expectations 89.5 …Previous 89.0

GMT 8:00 IST 13:30 GER IFO Business Situations Index
…Expectations 86.6 …Previous 86.4

GMT 8:00 IST 13:30 GER IFO Business Expectations Index
…Expectations 92.0 …Previous 91.6

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US New Home Sales
662 …Expectations 651 …Previous 652

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Current Account Balance
…Expectations -273.0 …Previous -450.2 …Actual -251.3