Weakening expectations for aggressive easing of FED rate cut supported the Dollar strength. The Dollar Index can broadly trade within 97/96-99 region for some time. The Euro & EURINR can initially fall towards 1.17 & 104.00-103.50 respectively before attempting to bounce back later. EURJPY needs to breach 175 to head towards 176-178, else can fall back towards 172. USDJPY can remained ranged within 146-149 for now. Only a break past 149 can open the doors for 150-152. USDCNY needs to sustain above 7.12 to head towards 7.14/15. Aussie and Pound above 0.655 and 1.345 can attempt to bounce back towards 0.66 and 1.36 and higher levels respectively in the near term. USDINR can test 88.85-89.00 before getting peaked out. Watch out for the US Durable goods, GDP & Existing home sales data releases scheduled today.

Dollar Index (97.806) climbed to 97.92 after Powell emphasized that further rate cuts are not guaranteed and would depend on upcoming inflation and labor data. A move above 98 could open a path to 99 resistance, but with 99 intact, a broad 97/96–99 range is likely to persist for now.

EURUSD (1.1745) is coming off due to Dollar strength. Immediate support is coming at 1.17 which can be tested if the fall extends further. Overall, while above 1.17, the target of 1.19-1.20 is kept open for now.

EURINR (104.1868) failed to breach 105 and started coming off from 104.9575 itself. While the fall persists, a test to 104.00-103.50 looks likely to happen before attempting to bounce back again.

EURJPY (174.61) can head towards 176-178 in the coming weeks on a breach past 175.00. Overall, the downside can be limited to 172 for now.

Dollar-Yen (148.63) observed the low of 147.51 before recovering from there. Still, a break past 149 will be needed to bring 150-152 into picture. Else, it can continue to remain ranged within 149-146 region.

USDCNY (7.1258) has risen past 7.12 and if sustained, can extend the rise to 7.14/15 as well.

Aussie (0.6591) initially rose to the high of 0.6628 but could not sustain and started to decline. Still, while the support near 0.655 holds, the pair can attempt to rise back towards 0.6650-0.670 in the coming sessions.

Pound (1.3457) turned lower 1.3527 itself. Overall, while above 1.34, the target of 1.36 and above is kept open for now.

USDINR (88.6620) remained stable yesterday. For now, the outlook remains bullish for a rise towards 88.85-89.00 in the near term before any reversal sets in.

The US Treasury yields have risen back again. The support is holding well. That keeps the door open for the yields to rise more in the coming days. The US PCE data release tomorrow will be important to watch. The German Yields continue to remain stable near their resistance. The recent price action leaves the bias bullish. The yields can breach the resistance and rise more. The 10Yr GoI retains its narrow sideways range. It is now rising back after testing the lower end of its range.

The US 10Yr (4.14%) and 30Yr (4.74%) Treasury yields have risen back again. The support at 4.08%-4.06 (10Yr) and 4.69% (30Yr) has held very well. That keeps alive the chances of the rise to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.75%) and 30Yr (3.34%) yields continue to remain stable near their resistance. The recent price action leaves the bias bullish. So, we expect the yield to get a strong follow-through rise from here to see 2.85% (10Yr) and 3.45% (30Yr) and higher levels.

The 10Yr GoI (6.4908%) has risen back from the lower end of the 6.45%-6.55% narrow range. The range continues to remain intact. We repeat that 6.4%-6.6% can be a slightly wider trading range.

The Dow saw some profit taking but can rebound from 46000. The Dax has risen slightly and can move up while above 23650. The Nifty can rebound from 25000 else can dip further to 24800-24600. Watch price action near 250000. Nikkei has moved up well today but needs to break above 45860 to test 46000 and higher. Shanghai may continue to trade between 3850-3750 for now.

The Dow (46121.28, -0.37%) saw some profit taking after Powell commented on the stock valuations being fairly high. The index has held the resistance at 46500 for now and while it holds for the near term, a further dip to 46000 is possible before we see a bounce back. Failure to hold above 46000 will open doors for decline towards 45500-45000.

DAX (23666.81, +0.23%) has risen well breaking above 23650. The index will now have to move up further to head towards 24000-24500. Overall the broad range of 24500-23000 is likely to hold for the near term unless a decisive breakout is seen on either side.

Nifty (25056.90, -0.45%) could not rise above 25150 yesterday and has dipped further. The index could find some support near 25000 or lower near 24800/600 from where a rebound can be seen soon.

Nikkei (45715.63, +0.19%) has risen well today. It needs to sustain higher and break above 45860 to move up further towards 46000. Failure to rise as expected can bring back a drop towards 45000-44800 region. Watch price action near 45860.

Shanghai (3853.42 -0.0.0057%) looks stable above 3800 just now but unless. A decisive rise above 3850 is seen, we may expect a range of 3850-3750 to hold with an eventual rise towards 3900-4000 possible in the medium term.

Brent and WTI broke above resistance levels and look poised to extend gains towards $ 70-72 and $ 66-68 respectively on supply concerns linked to Russia. Gold and silver have dipped with gold needing a break above $ 3,800 to stay bullish and Silver holding above $ 43 to target $ 45-46. Copper surged sharply after Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia following a deadly mudslide, driving prices towards $ 5.0 or higher, whereas Natural gas remains capped by resistance near current levels with risks of a dip to $ 3.0-2.9 unless it breaks above to target $ 3.3-3.4.

Brent ($ 69.05) broke above immediate resistance and tested a high of $ 69.37 yesterday. Concerns over Russian crude supplies pushed prices higher after President Trump stepped up his rhetoric against Russia and NATO pledged a robust response to Russian incursions into its airspace. A further rise towards $ 70-72 looks likely in the near term.

WTI ($ 64.70) has broken above immediate resistance and tested a high of $ 65.05. A further rise towards $ 66-68 can be seen in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,767.30) has dipped. A break above $ 3,800 is needed to retain its bullish outlook towards $ 3,900-4,000. Otherwise, it risks a fall towards $ 3,700-3,600 before a possible bounce back.

Silver ($ 44.22) has dipped slightly. Immediate support is seen near $ 43, and while this holds, we maintain our view of a rise towards $ 45-46 in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.8650) surged sharply after Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, one of the world’s largest copper producers, following a deadly mudslide. The sudden supply disruption from such a key source rattled the market and triggered strong buying. A further rise towards $ 5.0 or higher can be seen in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.1490) has not moved much, with immediate resistance near current levels. While this holds, a fall towards $ 3.0-2.9 can be seen in the near term. Alternatively, a sustained break higher could take the price up towards $ 3.3-3.4.

GMT 7:30 IST 13:00 SNB Mtg
…Expectations 0.00 …Previous 0.00

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
…Expectations -0.4 …Previous -2.8

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US GDP
…Expectations 3.3 …Previous 3.3

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
4051 …Expectations 3960 …Previous 4010

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 8:00 IST 13:30 GER IFO Business Climate
88.0 …Expectations 89.5 …Previous 88.9 …Actual 87.7

GMT 8:00 IST 13:30 GER IFO Business Situations Index
85.4 …Expectations 86.6 …Previous 86.4 …Actual 85.7

GMT 8:00 IST 13:30 GER IFO Business Expectations Index
90.2 …Expectations 92.0 …Previous 91.4 …Actual 89.7

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US New Home Sales
662 …Expectations 651 …Previous 652 …Actual 800