[Daily Market Trend | 25 Sep 2025]
Opening signal & market mood
At 08:00 IST SGX Nifty futures trade at 25,028, weaker than the prior cash close. The offshore read points to a cautious start as currency weakness and safe-haven demand influence early positioning.
Capital flows & institutional move
FIIs on 24 Sep were net sellers of ₹2,425.75 crore.
DIIs on 24 Sep were net buyers of ₹1,211.68 crore.
September month-to-date FII equity outflows stand at ₹−19,458.68 crore, reflecting continued foreign reluctance while DIIs provide intermittent support.
Global drivers
USA
- Dow Jones −0.37 % : Broad cyclicals under pressure after mixed US macro prints and yield moves
- Nasdaq −0.33 % : Tech weakness persists amid profit taking in large caps
- S&P500 −0.28 % : Market tone tentative as investors await additional Fed commentary
Asia
- Nikkei +0.27 % : Japan posts modest gains led by exporters on currency softness benefit
- Shanghai Composite −0.01 % : Chinese markets mostly flat as mixed PMI signals filter through
- Kospi −0.40 % : Korea slips with semiconductor names under selling pressure
Europe
- FTSE −0.40 % : UK market follows global risk off mood and energy names underperform
- DAX −0.51 % : German industrials soften on weaker orders and export concerns
- CAC −0.18 % : French equities fall in line with continental peers
Events & newswatch
- US visa fee change remains a headline; markets watch implications for India’s IT revenue and remittances.
- Fed official remarks and pending US inflation prints are scheduled and likely to move global yields.
- US crude inventory data showed a surprise draw; oil prices remain sensitive to supply disruption headlines.
- Indian trade delegation activity in Washington continues; markets will monitor outcomes for export measures.
- Corporate earnings from select large caps due later today; stock-specific moves expected.
Politics & Policy
India
• Government has flagged targeted support for exporters; markets are watching specifics.
• Parliamentary debates on foreign investment rules continue and could shape near-term sentiment.
US
• Congressional budget talks are active and could influence fiscal outlook and liquidity conditions.
• Administrative changes to visa fees are affecting services flows and corporate guidance for US-exposed firms.
Global
• China diplomatic developments with major trade partners remain the largest geopolitical event to monitor.
• G7 / US policy statements on tariffs and trade enforcement may influence regional supply chains.
Treasuries and US/India central bank updates/news
US 10 year Treasury yield trades at 4.12%, softening risk premium slightly as markets price evolving Fed guidance.
RBI policy posture is being watched closely ahead of the October meeting; reserves and FX interventions remain the key domestic signals.
Bond markets & yield trends
India 10 year G-Sec yield stands near 6.48%, trading in a narrow intraday band as investors weigh foreign outflows against domestic demand.
Currency & forex landscape
USD/INR trades in 88.6 – 88.8, under persistent pressure from dollar strength and portfolio outflows; rupee moves are feeding into import cost concerns and equity sentiment.
Commodities
Energy
– Brent crude is trading at $69.05 / bbl, pulling back modestly from recent highs after inventory and supply chatter; oil remains a key input to inflation and trade dynamics.
– Natural gas is exhibiting limited directional movement; seasonal demand cues remain the dominant driver.
Base & precious metals
– Gold trades near $3,739 / oz, supported by safe-haven flows and softer dollar dynamics; precious metals remain a cross-asset hedge this week.
– Silver and copper are showing selective strength; copper benefits from cyclical demand talk while aluminum and zinc lag on weaker industrial signals.
– In India local gold prices are holding at elevated levels, sustaining consumer interest and import cost implications.
Volatility & options metrics
India VIX: 10.6 (higher vs prior).
US VIX: 18.0 (slightly lower vs prior).
Nifty PCR sits around 0.82.
Implied volatility is marginally elevated; option markets price a higher headline sensitivity for intraday swings.
Trade levels & technical map
Pivot = 25,135
R1 / R2 = 25,220 / 25,350
S1 / S2 = 25,020 / 24,940
Key zones include the opening range, prior day high/low and the 50-day moving average; intraday support cluster sits at 25,020–24,940 and resistance cluster at 25,220–25,350.
Directional summary & triggers
Net: SGX Nifty at 25,028, implying −104 pts (−0.41%) versus the prior local reference close; trend: muted to cautious.
Primary live triggers: US 10Y at 4.12%, Brent near $69.05, USD/INR around 88.7, and outcomes from trade/visa policy developments.