Stronger US GDP & Durable goods supported the strength in Dollar yesterday. The Dollar Index and Euro faces immediate resistance at support at 99 and 1.16 respectively. The EURINR while above 103.50 can remain ranged within 103.50-105.00. EURJPY on a break past 175 can head towards 176-178, else can fall back towards 172. USDJPY has risen past 149 and if sustained can head towards 150-152 as well. USDCNY is headed towards the resistance coming at 7.14/15. Aussie and Pound have slipped below 0.655 and 1.34 and failing to see an immediate rise above these levels can make the outlook bearish in the near term. USDINR turned lower from 88.80 itself and has a scope to fall towards 88.50-88.25 in the coming sessions. Watch out for the US PCE & Personal Income data releases scheduled today.

Greater than expected US GDP at 3.8% (3.3%) and US Durable goods at 2.9% (-0.4%) led Dollar Index (97.806) to test 98.60 yesterday. Immediate resistance sits at 99; whether it holds or not will determine if the index remains within the 99–96 range or breaks higher toward 100–101. Today’s PCE data could clarify the near-term direction.

EURUSD (1.1670) dropped sharply to 1.1645; further decline could test support at 1.16. Still, while the support holds, a rebound is likely. Only a confirmed break below 1.16 would strengthen the bearish outlook.

Similarly, EURINR (103.6341) has recovered a bit from 103.39 and while the support near 103.50 holds, EURINR can consolidate between 103.50-105.00 region. Conversely, a break below 10350 if seen, can make it vulnerable to test 102 as well.

EURJPY (174.79) remained muted yesterday. The cross can head towards 176-178 in the coming weeks on a breach past 175.00. Overall, the downside can be limited to 172 for now.

Dollar-Yen (149.70) has indeed risen past 149 and if sustained, can test our mentioned targets of 150-152 in the near term.

USDCNY (7.1314) is moving up and may soon test resistance at 7.14/15. Thereafter, while this level holds, a pullback toward 7.12 or lower could follow; otherwise, a further rise is possible.

Aussie (0.6543) slipped to the low of 0.6526 contrary to our view of holding above 0.655. Now, failing to see an immediate rise past 0.655 can open the doors for 0.645-0.640 in the coming sessions.

Pound (1.3353) fallen below support near 1.34, making it vulnerable to further declines towards 1.33–1.32. Only a move back above 1.34 would counter the bearish outlook for now.

USDINR (88.7410) is struggling to break above 88.80 and has started to decline. So far, a low of 88.5975 has been seen and while below 88.80, a decline towards 88.50-88.25 looks possible in the near term.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher. Crucial resistance is ahead. If they manage to breach it, then more rise can be seen. We will have to wait and watch. The US PCE data release today will be important to watch. The German yields continue to hover around their resistance. A strong rise is needed for them to go higher. The 10Yr GoI is inching up and can go up towards the upper end of its range. For now, the sideways range is intact.

The US 10Yr (4.17%) and 30Yr (4.75%) Treasury yields sustain higher. 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) are crucial levels which can be tested. A strong rise past these levels can take the yields higher to 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr). We will have to wait and see.

The German 10Yr (2.77%) and 30Yr (3.34%) yields hover around their resistance. The 10Yr has risen just above 2.75% and has to get a strong follow-through rise to go up to 2.85%. The 30Yr on the other hand has to breach 3.35% to move up to 3.45%.

The 10Yr GoI (6.4972%) is inching up within the 6.45%-6.55% narrow range and can go up towards the upper end of this range. For now, the sideways range is intact. 6.4%-6.6% can be a slightly wider trading range.

Most indices have dipped and and trades in the red today. The Dow saw some profit taking today as expected. Sustained fall below 46500 can take it to 45500 or lower. The Dax is down below 23650 and unless it moves up again, a fall to 23500-23000 cannot be negated. The Nifty has fallen sharply to close below 25000 and could have scope to tets 24800-24600 in the bsar term. Nikkei has also dipped below 45860 and could fall futher towards 45500 or lower if the dip sustains in the coming sessions. Shanghai  may continue to trade between 3850-3750 for now.  

The Dow (45947.32, -0.38%) has fallen further today. The resistance near 46500 seems to be holding well for now. The index will have to immediately rise above 46000 and move up else continued fall in the coming session can take it down towards 45500-45000. 

DAX (23534.83, -0.56%) dipped back below 23534, unable to sustain tye rise above 23650. An immediate rise above 23600/650 again can take it towards 24000 it higher else can drag it down towards 23500-23000.

Nifty (24890.85, -0.66%) has declined as expected and while below 25000, the index can be headed towards 24800-24600.

Nikkei (45667.48, -0.91%) has dipped contrary to rise above 45860. It needs to rise and sustain a break above  45860 to move up further towards 46000. Failure to rise as expected can bring back a drop towards 45000-44800 region (looks likely). Watch if the dip continues while below 45860.

Shanghai (3845.25 -0.21%) looks stable above 3800 just now but unless the rise continues, we may expect a range of 3850-3750 to hold with an eventual rise towards 3900-4000 possible in the medium term.

Brent and WTI are moving higher as expected, with Brent eyeing $ 70-72 and WTI targeting $ 66-68. Gold is struggling below $ 3,800, where a break above is needed to keep the bullish momentum alive towards $ 3,900-4,000, else it risks a dip to $ 3,700-3,600. Silver surged to $ 45.50 but faces resistance near current levels, with chances of a pullback to $ 44.50-44.00 unless it breaks above for a run towards $ 46-47. Copper tested $ 4.9395 before heavy selling dragged it back to $ 4.7580, with support at $ 4.70 that could trigger a rebound. Natural Gas is capped by resistance, and unless it breaks higher towards $ 3.30-3.40, a fall to $ 3.00-2.90 looks likely.

Brent ($ 69.67) is rising in line with our expectations and can move higher towards $ 70-72 in the near term.

WTI ($ 65.32) has risen as expected and can extend further towards $ 66-68 in the near term.

Gold ($ 3,768.60) is hovering below $ 3,800. A sustained break above $ 3,800 is needed to retain its bullish outlook towards $ 3,900-4,000, otherwise it risks a fall towards $ 3,700-3,600 before a possible bounce back.

Silver ($ 45.08) rose sharply in line with our expectations to test a high of $ 45.50 yesterday. Immediate resistance is seen near current levels, while this holds we might see a pullback towards $ 44.50-44.00 in the near term before continuing higher. A break above $ 45.50 could take it further towards $ 46-47.

Copper ($ 4.77) tested a high of $ 4.9395 in line with our expectation of a rise towards $ 5.00, but strong selling prevented further gains and it fell back sharply to close at $ 4.7580 yesterday. Immediate support is seen near $ 4.70, which can be tested in the near term before a bounce back.

Natural Gas ($ 3.2370) is facing interim resistance near current levels. While this holds, a fall towards $ 3.00-2.90 can be seen in the near term. Alternatively, a sustained break higher could push prices up towards $ 3.30-3.40.

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Personal Income
-0.1 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.4

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US PCE M/M
0.3 …Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.3

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Core PCE
0.3 …Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.3

GMT 7:30 IST 13:00 SNB Mtg
…Expectations 0.00 …Previous 0.00 …Actual 0.00

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
…Expectations -0.4 …Previous -2.8 …Actual 2.9

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US GDP
…Expectations 3.3 …Previous 3.3 …Actual 3.8

{GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
4051 …Expectations 3960 …Previous 4010 …Actual 4000