The Dollar Index can decline further within its 99-97/96 range. While Euro & EURINR have scope to head towards 1.18/19 and 105 or higher in the near term. EURJPY on a break past 175 can head towards 176 and above in the coming sessions. USDJPY started coming off from 150 itself and if the fall extends further, a test to 148 or lower levels look likely to happen. USDCNY can trade within 7.14/15-7.10 region for some time. Aussie and Pound have recovered well and a breach past 0.66 and 1.35 can open the doors for higher levels in the near term. USDINR can head towards 89.00-89.10, while above 88.50/25.

Dollar Index (98.013) turned lower from 98.53 itself. While below 99, the index can trade within 99-97/96 region for some time.

EURUSD (1.1724) has moved up further and while above 1.16 the ongoing rise can get extended to 1.18-1.19 in the near term.

Similarly, EURINR (103.9659) has also strengthened and has a scope to head towards 105 or slightly higher in the coming sessions before halting.

EURJPY (174.76) is slowly inching higher. The cross can head towards 176 or higher on a breach past 175.00. Immediate support at 172.

Dollar-Yen (149.05) tested our initial target of 150 before retreating. For further upside, it must break above 150 to head toward 152; otherwise, a pullback toward 148 or lower is likely.

USDCNY (7.1314) turned lower from 7.1373 itself, contrary to our view of seeing a rise to 7.14/15. Overall, a broad range of 7.14/14-7.10 can persist in the near term before a break happens.

Aussie (0.6557) has indeed risen past 0.6550 and if sustained, can extend the ongoing rise towards 0.66 and above. Only a confirmed break below 0.655-0.650 can open the doors for 0.645-0.640 in the coming sessions.

Pound (1.3430) limited the downside to 1.3329 and has currently recovered well from there. A breach past 1.35 can bring the higher levels of 1.36-1.37 into picture. Watch price action closely.

USDINR (88.6050) is trading near 88.60 on the NDF. While above 88.50/25, the target of 89.00-89.10 can still be achieved before getting peaked out.

The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. The near-term picture is positive. Support is there to limit the downside. While the supports hold, the yields have potential to break their immediate resistance and rise going forward. The German yields have come down slightly. But support can limit the downside and take the yields higher eventually. The 10Yr GoI is moving up within the narrow range. A break above the range resistance can take it further higher and will bring in the wider trading range into the picture.

The US 10Yr (4.16%) and 30Yr (4.75%) Treasury yields have dipped slightly. 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr) are good supports. While above this support, the yields can breach 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) and rise to .3% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr) eventually.

The German 10Yr (2.74%) and 30Yr (3.33%) yields have dipped. The resistance at 2.75% (10Yr) and 3.35% (30Yr) are holding well. But support is at 2.7% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr) while above which the yields have potential to breach their resistance and rise to 2.85% (10Yr) and 3.45% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.5231%) is rising well and is heading up towards the upper end of its 6.45%-6.55% narrow range. A rise above 6.55% will bring the 6.4%-6.6% (broad range) into play and take the yields further higher.

The Dow is headed towards resistance at 46500 while the Dax can rise to 23850-24000 while above 23600/650.The Nifty can hold above support at 24600 and bounce back towards 24800-25000 soon. Nikkei could fall futher towards 45500 or lower if the dip sustains in the coming sessions below resistance at 46000. Shanghai  may continue to fall towards the lower end of the range of 3850-3750.  

The Dow (46247.29, +0.65%) has risen again and is headed towards the resistance near 46500. The index will have to immediately break past 46000 and move up else a fall can be seen in the coming sessions that can take it down towards 45500-45000. 

DAX (23739.47, +0.87%) held above 23600/650 as expected and has scope to tets 23850-24000 in the near term.

Nifty (24654.70, -0.95%) has declined sharply as expected, testing the support at 24600 from where a bounce looks likely in the coming days towards 25000 and higher. A break below 24600 if seen can be further bearish to 24400-24200 but that looks less likely at the moment.

Nikkei (44927.44 -0.94%) has fallen well while below resistance at 46000. There is scope for a fall to 44000-43000 if the fall sustains for the coming days.

Shanghai (3815.99 -0.32%) has dipped as expected and looks bearish towards 3800 below which a further dip to above 3775-3750 can be tested.

Brent and WTI have turned lower after testing highs, with Brent vulnerable to $ 69-68 while WTI is likely to stay within the $ 66-62 range. Gold is steady near $ 3,800 but needs a break above $ 3,850 to head towards $ 3,900-4,000, else it may dip to $ 3,700. Silver looks bullish towards $ 47.50-48.00. Copper has bounced back from its support and can rise towards $ 4.85-4.90. Natural Gas remains weak and can fall towards $ 3.10-3.00.

Brent ($ 69.57) tested $ 70.57 and fell back to close at $ 70.13 on Friday. While it remains below $ 71, it can decline towards $ 69-68 in the near term.

WTI ($ 65.10) rose as expected to test a high of $ 66.42 before easing to close at $ 65.72 on Friday. While the immediate resistance near $ 66 holds, it can dip towards $ 64-62, keeping the broader range of $ 66-62 intact for some time.

Gold ($ 3,817) has bounced back and is trading near $ 3,800. A sustained break above $ 3,850 is needed to extend its bullishness towards $ 3,900-4,000 in the coming weeks. Otherwise, it could dip to $ 3,700 before attempting such a rise.

Silver ($ 46.71) has broken above $ 45.50 and tested a high of $ 46.95 on Friday. A further upmove towards $ 47.50-48.00 can be seen in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.8135) fell to a low of $ 4.71 on Friday but has since bounced back above $ 4.80 and can rise towards $ 4.85-4.90 in the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($ 3.1610) is holding below its immediate resistance, and while it stays under this level, it can fall towards $ 3.10-3.00 in the near term.

GMT 5:45 IST 11:15 CH GDP
…Previous 0.1

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Biz Climate
95.0 …Expectation 95.9 …Previous 95.2

GMT 10:30 IST 16:00 IN IIP
5.7 …Previous 3.5

DATA LAST FRIDAY
===============

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Personal Income
-0.1 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.4 …Actual 0.4

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US PCE M/M
0.3 …Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.2

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Core PCE
0.3 …Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.2

{GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 CA GDP
…Expectations 0.1 …Previous -0.1 …Actual 0.2