The Dollar Index continues to hold the 99-97/96 range for now. The Euro & EURINR looks bullish towards 1.18/19 and 105 or higher in the near term. EURJPY needs to sustain above 174 to head towards 176, else it can be vulnerable to test 173 initially. USDJPY can test 148 or slightly lower levels before attempting to rise back again. USDCNY can trade within 7.14-7.10 region for some time. Aussie and Pound have recovered well and a breach past 0.66 and 1.35 can open the doors for higher levels in the near term. USDINR can head towards 89.00-89.10, while above 88.50. US Case Schiller & US Consumer Confidence data releases are scheduled today.

Dollar Index (98.013) continues to decline within its 99-97/96 range which is likely to persist for some time.

EURUSD (1.1720) tested 1.1754 before declining a bit. While above 1.16 the ongoing rise can get extended to 1.18-1.19 in the near term.

Similarly, EURINR (104.0319) looks stable above 104 and if sustained, can head towards 105 or slightly higher in the coming sessions before halting.

EURJPY (174.27) dipped from 175 to a low of 173.98 before recovering. It needs to sustain above 174 for a move to 176. Else, failure to hold may lead to a fall towards 173 before any rebound occurs.

Dollar-Yen (148.74) failed to see a break past 150 and started to decline from 149.53 itself. Chances are that the pair can extend the fall to 148 or slightly lower initially before it attempts to rise back again.

USDCNY (7.1314) can continue to consolidate between 7.14-7.10 in the near term.

On a break past 0.66 Aussie (0.6585) can rise towards 0.665-0.670 in the near term. Immediate support is coming at 0.655.

Pound (1.3430) tested 1.3456 before cooling down. A breach past 1.35 can bring the higher levels of 1.36-1.37 into picture. Watch price action closely.

USDINR (88.6470) tested the high of 88.77 yesterday. The target of 89 remains intact for now. Immediate support around 88.50/40 region.

The US Treasury yields have come down. Support is coming up which has to hold in order to keep alive the chances of the rise that we have been expecting. The German Yields have declined sharply. Failure to rise back immediately from here will negate the rise that we had expected. It will then drag the yields lower. The 10Yr GoI has broken its narrow range on the upside. A follow-through rise from here can take it further higher. The RBI monetary policy meeting tomorrow will need a close watch.

The US 10Yr (4.14%) and 30Yr (4.71%) Treasury yields have dipped further. 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr) are key levels. The yields have to sustain above this support. Else the rise back to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) and then to .3% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr) eventually will get negated.

The German 10Yr (2.71%) and 30Yr (3.27%) yields have declined sharply. The 10Yr has to sustain above 2.7% to get a rise back. Else it can fall to 2.65%. The 30Yr can fall to 3.2% if it fails to rise back above 3.3% immediately.

The 10Yr GoI (6.5547%) has broken the 6.45%-6.55% narrow range on the upside. A follow-through rise from here can take the yield up to 6.6%. The broader 6.4%-6.6% range will come into play then.

The Dow and Dax have immediate resistances near 46500 and 24000 which if hold can produce a decline back towards 45500 and 23500-23000 respectively. Only a break past these resistances of seen can trigger a medium term rise. Watch price action near the mentioned resistances. The Nifty dipped to foose lower yesterday but while above 24600/400, it can eventually rise to 25000 and higher. Nikkei continues to fall as expected and could test 44000-43000 unless any immediate rebound is seen. Shanghai has risen well from 3809 and may hold trade within 3800-3900 for the near term.

The Dow (46316.07, +0.15%) is trading just below important resistance near 46500. A rejection from here will take it down to 45500. But if the index manages to break past 46500, it can target 47000 on the upside soon. Watch price action at 46500.

DAX (23745.06, +0.024%) is again headed towards 24000, a break past which is necessary for the index to move up in the medium term targeting 24500. Else if 24000 holds as immediate resistance, the DAX can face rejection and fall back to 23500-23000. Watch price action at 24000.

Nifty (24634.90, -0.080%) tested 24791 from where it dipped to close lower. However, while above immediate support at 24600/400, view is eventually bullish to 25000 and higher.

Nikkei (44990.05, -0.12%) continues to fall as expected. Unless an immediate bounce back is seen, the index can be headed towards 44000-43000.

Shanghai (3868.74 -0.32%) limited it’s dip to 3809.54 yesterday and moved up sharply to 3881, holding above 3800. Very near term trade between 3800-3900 looks likely.

Crude prices have declined as expected, with Brent falling towards $ 66 on the back of OPEC+ production outlook and WTI slipping towards $ 62 while staying within their broader ranges. Precious metals remain firm, with Gold pushing above $ 3,850 and aiming for $ 3,900-3,950, and Silver on track to target $ 47.50-48.00. Copper has surged past $ 4.90, and a sustained break could open the door to $ 5.00-5.20, though a dip back towards $ 4.85-4.75 is also possible. Natural gas, contrary to expectations, broke above $ 3.20 and may extend its rise towards $ 3.35-3.40 in the near term.

Brent ($ 66.80) has fallen sharply to a low of $ 67.52 as expected, driven by the outlook for OPEC+ increasing crude production levels in November, which is likely to boost global oil supplies. A further decline towards $ 66 can be seen in the near term, keeping the broader range at $ 71-66 for now.

WTI ($ 63.18) has dropped as resistance held in line with our expectation. A further fall towards $ 62 looks possible in the near term, keeping the range at $ 66-62 for some time.

Gold ($ 3,877.20) has risen above $ 3,850 and looks poised to move higher towards $ 3,900-3,950 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 47.27) is moving up in line with our expectation and can soon target $ 47.50-48.00 on the higher side.

Copper ($ 4.8950) has risen sharply to a high of $ 4.9205 in line with our expectation. A sustained break above $ 4.90/95 is needed for it to extend towards $ 5.00-5.20, else it could dip back to $ 4.85-4.75.

Natural Gas ($ 3.2730) has broken above $ 3.20 and tested a high of $ 3.2980 yesterday, contrary to our expectation. While above this level, a further rise towards $ 3.35-3.40 can be seen in the near term.

GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBA Meeting
…Expectations 3.60 …Previous 3.60

GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK GDP
…Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.4

GMT 13:00 IST 18:30 US Case Schiller
…Expectations 2.3 …Previous 2.1

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Cons Conf
94.4 …Expectations 95.3 …Previous 97.4

DATA YESTERDAY
===============

GMT 5:45 IST 11:15 CH GDP
…Expectation 0.1 …Previous 0.7 …Actual 0.2

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Biz Climate
95.1 …Expectation 95.2 …Previous 95.3 …Actual 95.2

GMT 10:30 IST 16:00 IN IIP
5.7 …Expectation 5.0 …Previous 4.3 …Actual 4.0