[Daily Market Trend | 01 Oct 2025]
Opening signal & market mood
At 08:00 IST, SGX Nifty futures trade at 25,188, flat compared to the prior cash close. Market tone is cautious but stable as the new quarter begins, with traders awaiting macroeconomic data and central bank signals.
Capital flows & institutional move
FIIs on 30 Sep were net sellers of ₹ -2,845 crore.
DIIs on 30 Sep were net buyers of ₹ +3,120 crore.
September month-to-date FII equity outflows stood at ₹−19,900 crore, marking the third consecutive month of foreign equity selling. DIIs have offset the pressure with steady inflows, cushioning domestic markets.
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Global drivers
USA
Dow Jones +0.15 % : Energy and bank stocks provided mild support
Nasdaq −0.08 % : Tech sector softness capped broader gains
S&P500 +0.05 % : Markets ended mixed as quarter-end adjustments played out
Asia
Nikkei +0.12 % : Slight gains aided by exporter optimism
Shanghai Composite −0.20 % : China softer amid property sector stress
Kospi −0.14 % : Weakness in semiconductors pressured the index
Europe
FTSE +0.11 % : Financials supported UK indices into the quarter close
DAX −0.05 % : German markets soft on weak industrial data
CAC −0.09 % : French equities modestly weaker in cautious trade
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Events & newswatch
US ISM manufacturing PMI due today, key gauge of industrial momentum.
RBI’s monetary policy meet later this week in focus for rate stance.
Eurozone CPI inflation data awaited, influencing ECB policy path.
OPEC+ production guidance expected, relevant for crude prices.
India’s auto monthly sales data to be released, sector sentiment driver.
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Politics & Policy
India
• Government signaled intent to accelerate capital expenditure in H2 FY26.
• Key state election campaigning intensifies with focus on economic growth pledges.
US
• Trade policy updates continue to highlight tariff flexibility on key imports.
• Congressional budget debates remain in spotlight, weighing on fiscal sentiment.
Global
• China reiterated commitment to stabilize yuan amid market concerns.
• G7 finance ministers reaffirmed policy support for global financial stability.
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Treasuries & US/India central bank updates/news
US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.16%, steady but still near cycle highs.
Fed remains data dependent, with officials emphasizing inflation monitoring.
RBI expected to maintain its cautious stance while closely watching rupee volatility.
Bond markets & yield trends
India 10-year G-Sec yield at 6.48%, steady with robust domestic demand keeping yields anchored.
Currency & forex landscape
USD/INR trades in 88.7 – 88.9, continuing to test higher levels.
Persistent rupee pressure highlights foreign outflow concerns.
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Commodities
Energy
– Brent crude trades at $68.5 / bbl, supported by OPEC+ guidance and inventory tightness.
– Natural gas prices remain stable with limited upside momentum.
Base & precious metals
– Gold at $3,755 / oz, resilient amid inflation uncertainty.
– Silver posts firm gains as both industrial and investor demand stay supportive.
– Copper prices hold steady, while aluminum sees mild pressure from weaker demand outlook.
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Volatility & options metrics
India VIX: 10.9 (+2.1% vs prior).
US VIX: 16.4 (flat).
Nifty PCR at 0.83, indicating restrained bullish positioning.
IVs show mild uptick, suggesting hedging demand into the RBI meet.
Trade levels & technical map
Pivot = 25,150
R1 / R2 = 25,240 / 25,370
S1 / S2 = 25,060 / 24,950
Support zone: 25,060–24,950; resistance zone: 25,240–25,370.
Directional summary & triggers
Net: SGX Nifty at 25,188, implying +7 pts (+0.03%) vs prior close; trend flat with cautious undertone.
Key triggers: US 10Y at 4.16%, Brent crude at $68.5, USD/INR near 88.8.