[Daily Market Trend | 02 Oct 2025]
Opening signal & market mood
At 08:00 IST, SGX Nifty futures trade at 25,275, down modestly from the prior cash close. Sentiment is restrained as investors weigh US yields, oil movement, and the rupee’s fragile backdrop.
Capital flows & institutional move
FIIs on 01 Oct were net sellers of ₹ -2,860 crore.
DIIs on 01 Oct were net buyers of ₹ +2,320 crore.
October month-to-date FII flows are already negative at ₹−2,860 crore, extending September’s selling streak, while DIIs continue to offset the exodus with steady inflows.
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Global drivers
USA
Dow Jones −0.26 % : Weakness as financials and cyclicals dragged
Nasdaq −0.12 % : Tech slipped after muted guidance from chipmakers
S&P500 −0.20 % : Broader indices drifted lower amid cautious positioning
Asia
Nikkei −0.35 % : Exporter selling persisted on yen strength
Shanghai Composite +0.14 % : Policy support expectations kept trade in positive zone
Kospi −0.22 % : Semiconductor losses capped regional sentiment
Europe
FTSE −0.18 % : Miners dragged UK stocks lower on softer commodity cues
DAX −0.21 % : German markets weaker on growth fears
CAC −0.16 % : Paris equities tracked continental softness
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Events & newswatch
US ISM manufacturing data released overnight showed contraction, dampening sentiment.
RBI’s monetary policy meeting scheduled later this week remains key for domestic positioning.
OPEC+ supply updates in focus as crude holds elevated levels.
Eurozone inflation print due today, setting tone for ECB outlook.
US weekly jobless claims eyed as labor market barometer.
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Politics & Policy
India
• Government reaffirmed focus on infra and housing spend in the pre-budget roadmap.
• State-level political debates around fiscal transfers stirred investor commentary.
US
• Treasury budgetary tussle raised concerns about fiscal gridlock.
• Campaign rhetoric continues to shape outlook on tax and trade.
Global
• China’s trade diplomacy with ASEAN drew headlines, with emphasis on supply chains.
• G7 finance ministers reaffirmed commitment to coordinated policy support for growth.
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Treasuries & US/India central bank updates/news
US 10-year Treasury yield trades at 4.19%, still elevated and a drag on risk appetite.
The Fed held rates steady but stressed “data dependence,” fueling volatility.
RBI policy stance is awaited; rupee defense remains a critical lens for markets.
Bond markets & yield trends
India 10-year G-Sec yield at 6.49%, marginally higher on global spillovers.
Currency & forex landscape
USD/INR trades in 88.7 – 88.9, sustaining pressure as dollar index remains firm.
FX outflows continue to test RBI’s reserve posture.
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Commodities
Energy
– Brent crude stands at $69.4 / bbl, steady amid supply-side caution.
– Natural gas trades rangebound, reflecting balanced inventories.
Base & precious metals
– Gold trades at $3,755 / oz, holding firm on global risk-off positioning.
– Silver prices strengthen in domestic markets, reflecting festival demand.
– Copper stays resilient on tight supply; aluminum softens on weak industrial orders.
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Volatility & options metrics
India VIX: 10.9 (+4.1% vs prior).
US VIX: 16.7 (+1.2%).
Nifty PCR at 0.80, showing cautious positioning.
Overall IVs tick higher, mirroring rising global uncertainty.
Trade levels & technical map
Pivot = 25,240
R1 / R2 = 25,320 / 25,450
S1 / S2 = 25,130 / 25,020
Watch for support at 25,130–25,020 and resistance near 25,320–25,450.
Directional summary & triggers
Net: SGX Nifty at 25,275, implying −22 pts (−0.09%) vs prior close; tone mildly weak.
Key triggers: US 10Y yield 4.19%, Brent crude $69.4, USD/INR at 88.8.