[Daily Market Trend | 04 Oct 2025]
Opening signal & market mood
At 08:00 IST, SGX Nifty futures trade at 25,065, down modestly from the prior cash close. Offshore tone is subdued with investors cautious ahead of key US payroll data and crude market signals.
Capital flows & institutional move
FIIs on 03 Oct were net sellers of ₹-2,845 crore.
DIIs on 03 Oct were net buyers of ₹+2,210 crore.
Month-to-date October FII outflows stand at ₹−5,130 crore, highlighting continued foreign pressure, while DIIs maintain steady buying support.
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Global drivers
USA
Dow Jones −0.32 % : Banks and industrials slipped ahead of jobs report
Nasdaq −0.21 % : Tech names under pressure from higher bond yields
S&P500 −0.28 % : Broad indices weakened in risk-off mode
Asia
Nikkei −0.18 % : Japanese equities softened as yen remained firm
Shanghai Composite +0.05 % : China equities edged higher on liquidity pledges
Kospi −0.14 % : Korea slipped on chip weakness and currency swings
Europe
FTSE −0.25 % : UK shares dragged by commodity-linked names
DAX −0.19 % : German equities lower on weak industrial orders
CAC −0.22 % : French stocks followed continental risk aversion
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Events & newswatch
US non-farm payroll data due later today, expected to guide Fed’s rate stance.
OPEC+ monitoring meeting may signal future supply adjustments.
India’s services PMI numbers awaited, key for domestic demand outlook.
Eurozone inflation data due, relevant for ECB guidance.
IMF–World Bank meetings next week likely to shape global growth discourse.
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Politics & Policy
India
• Finance Ministry announced additional infrastructure outlays for Q3 to sustain growth.
• Political discussions intensify ahead of state elections with economic focus on jobs and welfare.
US
• White House continues fiscal negotiations as spending deadlines loom.
• Election campaign trails highlight tax and healthcare debates impacting market expectations.
Global
• China–US trade rhetoric resurfaces as tariffs and supply chain issues remain unresolved.
• Russia reiterated its energy export stance, signaling limited relief for European buyers.
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Treasuries & US/India central bank updates/news
US 10-year Treasury yield trades at 4.19%, edging higher and weighing on equity sentiment.
Fed remains data-dependent; markets await payroll print for clarity.
RBI maintains liquidity operations as rupee weakness persists.
Bond markets & yield trends
India 10-year G-Sec yield at 6.49%, reflecting steady domestic demand despite global pressure.
Currency & forex landscape
USD/INR trades in 88.9 – 89.1, rupee testing fresh lows as dollar stays strong.
Currency volatility remains a near-term equity overhang.
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Commodities
Energy
– Brent crude at $69.1 / bbl, slightly firmer on tight supply talk.
– Natural gas prices stable, limited by soft seasonal demand.
Base & precious metals
– Gold at $3,755 / oz, steady on safe-haven positioning.
– Silver trades modestly higher on industrial offtake.
– Copper sees mild gains on Chinese liquidity support; aluminum remains rangebound.
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Volatility & options metrics
India VIX: 10.9 (+4.4% vs prior).
US VIX: 17.2 (+2.0%).
Nifty PCR at 0.81, showing caution in positioning.
Implied volatility remains elevated as traders brace for data risk.
Trade levels & technical map
Pivot = 25,080
R1 / R2 = 25,160 / 25,290
S1 / S2 = 24,970 / 24,880
Support: 24,970–24,880 zone. Resistance: 25,160–25,290 zone.
Directional summary & triggers
Net: SGX Nifty at 25,065, implying −55 pts (−0.22%) vs prior close; trend cautious.
Key triggers: US 10Y at 4.19%, Brent crude $69.1, USD/INR near 88.9–89.1.