While the Dollar Index faces immediate resistance at 99, Euro is nearing the support at 1.16. Watch price action closely around the current levels to see where both might be headed. EURINR is trading near the lower end of its 105-103 range. EURJPY has risen above 176 and if sustained, can test 178-180 before getting peaked out. Similarly, USDJPY can also head towards 152-154 before halting. USDCNY is closed today. The Aussie has supports coming at 0.655-0.650, above which the targets of 0.670-0.675 are kept open. The Pound has inched lower and can trade within 1.33-1.35 region for some time. USDINR appears to be stuck within 88.60-88.80 region.
Dollar Index (98.884) climbed sharply to 98.89 as mounting government shutdown risks fueled safe haven demand among investors. The index is now near resistance at 99; as long as this holds, the 99–96 range should persist. Only a decisive break past 99 can pave the way for 100-101 levels.
EURUSD (1.1617) has been coming off and is nearing support at 1.16. Staying above 1.16 keeps the 1.18-1.19 target alive. Only a confirmed break below 1.16 would turn the outlook bearish and push it lower.
EURINR (103.1736) is trading near the lower end of its 105-103 range. Immediate support is at 103, and as long as the price stays above this level, the 103-105 range is expected to hold.
EURJPY (177.30) has indeed risen past 176 and now if sustained, can extend the rise to 178–180 in the medium term.
Dollar-Yen (152.51) is rising in line with our bullish view and can soon test our target of 153-154 before getting peaked out.
USDCNY (7.1185) will remain closed till 08-Oct on the account of the Golden week holiday.
Aussie (0.6562) extended the fall further and nearing support levels at 0.655 and 0.65. The targets of 0.670-0.675 remain open as long as the price stays above 0.65.
Pound (1.3400) has declined and if slipped below 1.34, can test 1.33 before attempting to bounce back again. Chances are that pair can consolidate between 1.33-1.35 region for some time before a breakout occurs.
USDINR (88.77) remained muted yesterday. Immediate support is near 88.70/60. While it holds, we retain our view of seeing a rise to 89.00-89.10. Only a break below 88.60 could push it down to 88.50-88.30, but this seems unlikely now.
The US Treasury yields are struggling to rise and have come down. Failure to sustain above their immediate support can drag them lower and negate the rise that we have been expecting. The German yields remain stable. We retain our view of seeing some more fall from here first and then a rise. The 10Yr GoI is managing to hold above its support and keeps the door open to rise from here.
The US 10Yr (4.13%) and 30Yr (4.73%) Treasury yields have come down and are struggling to rise. A fall below 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.7% (30Yr) can drag them down to 4.05%-4% (10Yr) and 4.65%-4.6% (30Yr). That in turn will negate the rise to 4.2%-4.3% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.9% (30Yr).
The German 10Yr (2.71%) and 30Yr (3.29%) yields remain stable. We retain our view of seeing a fall to 2.65% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr) first and then a fresh rise back to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.4% (30Yr).
The 10Yr GoI (6.5101%) is managing to hold above 6.5%. That keeps alive the chances of a rise to 6.6%. A fall below 6.5% will negate this rise and drag it down to 6.45%.
The Dow has dipped below 49000 itself and could dip further towards 46500-46000. Note 47000 and 48000 are crucial resistances on the upside. The Dax can test 24500-24600 soon, a break above which will pave way for 25000. The Nifty rose to 25220.90 before closing lower. A rise above 25200-25250 is needed to rise towards upper resistance at 25400/500. Else, a dip to 25000 looks possible. The Nikkei is holding above 47800 and looks elevated for the near term, with chances of a gradual rise towards 50000. Shanghai is closed.
The Dow (46602.98, -0.20%) has not been able to breach 46900 and has instead fallen while below it. On the charts, the resistance at 47000 seems to be holding well for now. Continued dip can take it down to 46500-46000 initially before any rebound is seen in the medium term. Note that 47000 and 48000 are crucial resistances on different time frames.
DAX (24385.78, +0.031%) is showing small movements over the last couple of days. It needs to break above 24500-24600 to test 25000. Thereafter, a decisive break above 25000 is needed for a further bullish rally. While below 25000-24600, we cannot negate a fall back towards 24000 or lower.
Nifty (25108.30, +0.12%) tested our initial expected resistance at 25220.90 yesterday before closing lower. If Nifty continues to dip from here, it can target 25000. An attempt to rise again above 25200-25250 can take it towards the upper resistance at 25400-25500. Overall, the broad range of 24600-25500 may hold for the month unless a break on either side is seen.
Nikkei (48034.21, +0.17%) is holding above 47800 and if the index continues to rise from here, it can gradually rise towards 50000. Only a break below 47800, if seen can bring in a corrective decline for the near term.
Shanghai (3882.78 +0.52%) is closed today.
Brent and WTI remain weak below $ 67 and $ 63 respectively, with risks of further decline towards $ 62-60 and $ 58-56. Gold stays bullish above $ 4000 targeting $ 4100-4200. Silver can rise towards $ 48.50-49.00 while $ 47 holds. Copper may extend up to $ 5.15-5.20 while Natural Gas could dip to $ 3.30-3.20 unless it breaks above $ 3.5240 to head towards $ 3.60-3.70.
Brent ($ 65.91) as long as it holds below the immediate resistance at $ 67, there remains a possibility of a break below $ 64 and a decline towards $ 62-60 in the coming weeks.
WTI ($ 62.23) has edged up slightly but faces immediate resistance at $ 63, and while this holds, the price remains vulnerable to a break below $ 60, with the downside towards $ 58-56 still intact for now.
Gold ($ 4024.50) has broken above the $ 4000 mark and now needs to sustain above this level to remain bullish towards $ 4100-4200 or even higher in the coming weeks.
Silver ($ 47.84) as expected, tested a low of $ 47.02 yesterday and can now rise towards $ 48.50-49.00 in the near term while support at $ 47 holds.
Copper ($ 5.0945) has risen in line with expectations and can extend further towards $ 5.15-5.20 in the near term.
Natural Gas ($ 3.5030) has bounced back to a high of $ 3.5240 yesterday. If this level holds, we might see a pullback towards $ 3.30-3.20 in the near term; otherwise, a sustained break above it could push prices higher towards $ 3.60-3.70.
NO MAJOR DATA RELEASES FOR TODAY.
DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Trade Balance
…Expectations -95.5 …Previous -78.3 …Actual *Not Released due to US gvt. shutdown*